SA

READ 2: The Emerging Biden Doctrine

The Core of Biden's Foreign Policy: A Contest with Autocrats

  • President Joe Biden's foreign policy is anchored in the idea that the U.S.-Chinese rivalry is a facet of a broader "contest with autocrats." This struggle aims to determine "whether democracies can compete in the rapidly changing twenty-first century."

  • Biden views the current global landscape as an "inflection point," a pivotal moment that will decide if the 21^{st} century is characterized by democratic dominance or autocratic ascendancy.

    • He has predicted that future historians will conduct "doctoral theses on the issue of who succeeded: autocracy or democracy?"

  • Evolution of Biden's Stance: In 2019, Biden had dismissed the idea of China being a serious competitor or a leading ideological challenge. However, his current assertion that the central clash of our era is between democratic and authoritarian systems is presented as genuine and carries profound implications for U.S. foreign policy and geopolitics.

  • Administration's Perspective: For the Biden administration, this concept acts as a lens through which to understand U.S. relations with its principal rivals and to grasp the high stakes involved.

    • It intrinsically links great-power competition with the revitalization of American democracy.

    • It also connects the struggle against transnational issues such as corruption and COVID-$19$.

    • The strategy aims to focus the United States on a broad, overarching approach to fortify the democratic world against the most serious threats it has faced in generations.

  • Challenge of Implementation: While Biden has astutely identified the defining strategic challenge, realizing this vision is fraught with inherent and self-created difficulties.

A World Safe for Autocracy: The Three Interrelated Challenges

  • Shifting Strategic Frame: While former President Donald Trump moved Washington toward great-power competition, his focus on the U.S.-Chinese rivalry often centered on trade terms. Biden, by contrast, frames this competition as a "fundamental debate" between those who believe "autocracy is the best way forward" and those who contend "democracy will and must prevail."

  • The community of democratic nations confronts three interconnected grand challenges:

    1. The Threat from Authoritarian Powers

    • Primary Actors: Russia and particularly China are the principal authoritarian challengers.

      • They are actively contesting U.S. power globally and menacing democratic nations, from Eastern Europe to the Taiwan Strait.

    • Ideological vs. Geopolitical: The challenge posed by these powers is equally ideological as it is geopolitical.

      • Their domestic models of order (illiberal practices) inherently lead to different visions of international order.

      • Russia and China seek to weaken, fragment, and ultimately replace the existing international system, whose foundational liberal principles are antithetical to their internal governance.

    • The Danger: The primary danger is that Moscow and Beijing will succeed in making the world "safe for autocracy," which, by extension, will make it "unsafe for democracy."

    • Tactics of Authoritarian Powers:

      • Russia: Employs cyberattacks and disinformation to destabilize democracies and foster internal division among citizens, particularly exploiting existing societal polarization and tribalism.

      • China: Utilizes its vast market power to suppress criticism—effectively, free speech—in advanced democracies across Europe and Australia. It also provides autocratic regimes worldwide with tools and techniques for repression. Furthermore, Beijing is actively rewriting the rules of international organizations to protect and even privilege authoritarianism.

        • Technological Offensive: Most menacingly, China is investing generationally in advanced technologies like 5G telecommunications and artificial intelligence. These investments are intended to spread China's autocratic influence globally and propel it past its democratic rivals.

    • Consequence of Autocratic Leadership: As President Franklin Roosevelt warned, a world led by empowered, aggressive autocracies would be a "shabby and dangerous place" for those who cherish freedom.

    2. Transnational Problems Taking on Greater Gravity

    • Systemic Challenge: These issues are not merely episodic problems; they represent a challenge to the idea that democracies can effectively safeguard their citizens.

    • Examples:

      • COVID-$19$: Beyond being a once-in-a-century pandemic, it tests democracies' capacity to respond effectively to pressing perils.

      • Cross-border Corruption: More than just a threat to good governance, it is a weapon exploited by authoritarian regimes like Moscow and Beijing to expand their influence and weaken their rivals.

    • Artificial Divide: The distinction between great-power competition and transnational issues is artificial. Democracies cannot win the former without successfully addressing the latter.

    3. The Decay of Democracy from Within

    • Internal Vulnerabilities: Democracies are facing internal erosion, which makes them susceptible to external autocratic predation.

    • U.S. Context: Recent years have seen the election of an overtly illiberal president and a violent attempt to undermine a democratic election.

    • Global Trend: Across the liberal world, antidemocratic sentiments and widespread dissatisfaction with representative institutions have reached levels not observed since World War II.

    • Interconnected Crises: This crisis of democratic governance at home is directly linked to a diminishing democratic influence abroad.

The Biden Doctrine: A Three-Fold Response

  • The three-fold challenge naturally dictates a corresponding three-fold response, elements of which are evident in the early actions of the Biden administration.

    1. Strengthen Democratic Cohesion and Resilience

    • Global Solidarity: The U.S. must fortify the unity and resilience of the democratic community against authoritarian rivals and expand this democratic solidarity globally, given the global nature of the threats.

    • Prioritizing Alliances: In contrast to the Trump administration's strained relationships with allies, Biden has prioritized repairing these alliances. He views them as essential "shields in a global democratic phalanx."

      • European Cooperation: Efforts have been made to resolve diplomatic and trade disputes with Europe to forge a stronger united front against Russia and China.

      • Indo-Pacific Signaling: Biden has collaborated with allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific to convey that aggression against Taiwan would incur severe costs for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

      • G7 Summit Outcomes: An early Group of 7 summit yielded common language on the Chinese threat and plans for a democratic infrastructure program for the developing world. This initiative promotes transparent, high-quality projects, serving as a direct democratic counter to Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative.

    2. Lead Democracies in Addressing Transnational Problems

    • Collaborative Hubs: The administration has promoted centers for democratic cooperation on critical global challenges.

      • Vaccine Distribution: Under Biden, the Quad and the G-$7$ have announced plans to distribute nearly 2 billion doses of COVID-$19$ vaccines to developing nations.

      • Anti-Corruption Drive: The administration is gearing up for a multilateral campaign to counter corruption and the illicit financial flows that autocrats like Russian President Vladimir Putin have skillfully weaponized.

    • Pragmatic Approach: While Biden previously discussed a global "summit of democracies," he has, thus far, favored smaller, existing groups. This approach aims to deliver tangible immediate progress and potentially lay the groundwork for more ambitious undertakings later.

    3. Build a "Position of Strength" Through Reinvestment

    • Domestic Competitiveness: The U.S. must rebuild its "position of strength" for global rivalry by reinvesting in its own competitiveness and demonstrating that democracies can still effectively serve their citizens.

    • Technology Competition Strategy: The administration has downplayed the immediate creation of large, formal democratic coalitions (like a D-$10$ or T-$12$) to counter autocratic tech influence.

      • Instead, it is fostering democratic cooperation from the ground up by working with select countries and groupings:

        • South Korea: On semiconductors and 5G and 6G technology.

        • European Union (EU): On aligning technology and trade policy.

        • Japan: On ensuring an open global Internet.

        • NATO: On countering cyberattacks and disinformation.

    • Pushback Against Authoritarian Repression: The administration has actively, and often multilaterally, resisted the most egregious forms of authoritarian repression and predation:

      • Russia: President Biden reportedly threatened Putin with severe repercussions if Russian cyberattacks against critical infrastructure persist.

      • Belarus: Washington joined the EU in imposing sanctions after the Lukashenko government unlawfully forced down a plane carrying a wanted dissident. This was a direct response to extraterritorial repression, a tactic used by Russia, China, and other autocracies to harass critics and solidify their rule.

      • China: Biden's team collaborated with Canada, the United Kingdom, and the EU to sanction CCP officials involved in the severe repression in Xinjiang. This action triggered a notable "Wolf Warrior" backlash, which ultimately nullified an investment agreement Beijing had signed with Brussels just months prior.

    • Domestic Investments and "Foreign Policy for the Middle Class":

      • Competitiveness and Alienation: Domestically, Biden is pursuing investments in scientific research and development, digital and physical infrastructure, and other areas.

        • This aims to enhance competitiveness and address the alienation experienced by working- and middle-class populations.

      • Economic Benefits: His promise of a "foreign policy for the middle class" is designed to illustrate that global engagement can provide tangible benefits for working families.

      • Global Minimum Tax: Administration officials argue that a push for a global minimum tax would enable democracies to invest more substantially in their citizens.

      • Historical Parallel: From Biden's perspective, these domestic measures are initial steps towards the kind of internal rejuvenation and reform that empowered democracies to triumph in another systemic contest during the Cold War.

Challenges and Shortcomings: "The Hard Part"

  • As the strategic outlines of the Biden Doctrine become clearer, so too do its inherent challenges and limitations.

    1. Framing Issues with Coalitions

    • Audience Reception: Biden's framing of the global contest resonates more effectively with established democracies than with other nations.

    • Need for Pragmatic Alliances: While the strategy prioritizes deep solidarity with democracies to counter authoritarian advancement, hemming in Russian and Chinese power (militarily or diplomatically) will necessitate cooperation with governments that are either "imperfect or downright autocratic." Examples include Poland, Turkey, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

    • Historical Precedent: This is not necessarily a fatal flaw; Washington's Cold War strategy centered on alliances with like-minded democracies while also fostering productive, albeit transactional, relationships with quasi-democracies and outright tyrannies.

    • Compromises Required: This highlights that there is no singular, "one-size-fits-all" approach to coalition building, and even principled strategies demand pragmatic compromises.

    2. Difficulties with Core Democratic Allies

    • Beyond Easy Gains: While Biden can quickly capitalize on easier wins (e.g., ending fratricidal trade wars or refraining from praising dictators) and there is clear potential for cooperation with Europe on issues like investment screening, rallying even close democratic allies presents significant challenges.

    • Conflicting Economic Interests: European exporters are banking on a post-pandemic economic recovery driven by Chinese purchases, creating economic dependencies.

    • Persistent Divisions: Transatlantic divisions continue on issues such as privacy, data, and other technology policies.

    • From Statements to Action: While obtaining joint statements of concern regarding potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan or economic coercion of Australia is relatively straightforward, forging concrete multilateral responses proves significantly more difficult.

    • Trade-offs and Unintended Consequences: Actions taken to strengthen the free world against one threat can inadvertently weaken it against another. For instance, the Biden administration dropped its opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in an effort to bring Berlin into alignment against Beijing. However, this move simultaneously allowed Moscow to increase its leverage over vulnerable democracies in Eastern Europe.

    3. Distraction from Equally Pressing Military Dangers

    • Existential Military Risk: Focusing excessively on the ideological and technological struggle could divert the administration's attention from critical military threats. The U.S. could lose the systemic contest by failing to contain authoritarian aggressors and defend democratic outposts in Eastern Europe and the Western Pacific.

    • Military Preparedness Concerns:

      • A bipartisan commission on U.S. defense strategy warned in 2018 that the United States lacks the military power to meet its commitments along the Eurasian periphery.

      • The Pentagon faces a "gaping window of vulnerability" in the Taiwan Strait.

    • Lack of Urgency: Despite these warnings, the administration has shown "comparatively little urgency" on the military front.

      • Its initial Pentagon budget request is flat (in real terms) and underfunds near-term measures necessary to harden the U.S. posture in the Pacific.

    • **