diplomacy

models of decision making

developed by Graham Allison largely in response to the cuban missile crisis (1971 book models of decision making)

  • (mis)perceptions and biases have huge influences on international diplomacy and anticipating others’ actions

RAM: rational actor model — realism
  • states are unitary actors ⇒ state to state

  • states conduct cost/benefit analyses before making decisions

  • states have perfect information on what’s going on

OPM: organizational process model
  • multiple organizations involved in decision making ⇒ multiple actors on roughly the same level

  • SOPs — standard operating procedures

    • resistant to change

    • not universal, can cause confusion

BPM: bureaucratic politics model/pluralism
  • aka pluralist model

  • lots of interest groups that effect decision making ⇒ multiple actors on different levels

  • backchannel diplomacy: third-party actors coordinating/delivering messages

group dynamics and negotiation

  • groupthink: the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility

  • spiral of silence: the theory that people’s willingness to express their opinions on controversial public issues is affected by their largely unconscious perception of those opinions as being either popular or unpopular

  • satisficing: reaching suboptimal outcomes that are agreed upon by the majority of decision makers

case study: US and Taiwan

  • the US has utilized strategic ambiguity relating to Taiwan

  • kigali agreement: montreal protocol on CFCs

    • one of the most successful international environmental agreements of all time

    • china now classified as a developed country, doesn’t get as much leeway


knowt logo

diplomacy

models of decision making

developed by Graham Allison largely in response to the cuban missile crisis (1971 book models of decision making)

  • (mis)perceptions and biases have huge influences on international diplomacy and anticipating others’ actions

RAM: rational actor model — realism

  • states are unitary actors ⇒ state to state
  • states conduct cost/benefit analyses before making decisions
  • states have perfect information on what’s going on

OPM: organizational process model

  • multiple organizations involved in decision making ⇒ multiple actors on roughly the same level
  • SOPs — standard operating procedures
    • resistant to change
    • not universal, can cause confusion

BPM: bureaucratic politics model/pluralism

  • aka pluralist model
  • lots of interest groups that effect decision making ⇒ multiple actors on different levels
  • backchannel diplomacy: third-party actors coordinating/delivering messages

group dynamics and negotiation

  • groupthink: the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility
  • spiral of silence: the theory that people’s willingness to express their opinions on controversial public issues is affected by their largely unconscious perception of those opinions as being either popular or unpopular
  • satisficing: reaching suboptimal outcomes that are agreed upon by the majority of decision makers

case study: US and Taiwan

  • the US has utilized strategic ambiguity relating to Taiwan
  • kigali agreement: montreal protocol on CFCs
    • one of the most successful international environmental agreements of all time
    • china now classified as a developed country, doesn’t get as much leeway