diplomacy

models of decision making

developed by Graham Allison largely in response to the cuban missile crisis (1971 book models of decision making)

• (mis)perceptions and biases have huge influences on international diplomacy and anticipating others’ actions

RAM: rational actor model — realism

• states are unitary actors ⇒ state to state
• states conduct cost/benefit analyses before making decisions
• states have perfect information on what’s going on

OPM: organizational process model

• multiple organizations involved in decision making ⇒ multiple actors on roughly the same level
• SOPs — standard operating procedures
  • resistant to change
  • not universal, can cause confusion

BPM: bureaucratic politics model/pluralism

• aka pluralist model
• lots of interest groups that effect decision making ⇒ multiple actors on different levels
• backchannel diplomacy: third-party actors coordinating/delivering messages

group dynamics and negotiation

• groupthink: the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility
• spiral of silence: the theory that people’s willingness to express their opinions on controversial public issues is affected by their largely unconscious perception of those opinions as being either popular or unpopular
• satisficing: reaching suboptimal outcomes that are agreed upon by the majority of decision makers

case study: US and Taiwan

• the US has utilized strategic ambiguity relating to Taiwan
• kigali agreement: montreal protocol on CFCs
  • one of the most successful international environmental agreements of all time
  • china now classified as a developed country, doesn’t get as much leeway