Chapter 1-6 Overview: Introduction, Critical Thinking, and Biases

Fill-in-the-blank flashcards covering key concepts from the lecture notes on psychological science, critical thinking, cognitive biases, and pattern perception.

Hindsight bias is the __ phenomenon.

I knew it all along

Overconfidence is the tendency to be more confident than __.

correct

The tendency to see __ in random sequences is common.

patterns

Common sense describes after the fact what has happened better than it __ what will happen.

predicts

In a classic demonstration of hindsight bias, groups are given opposing findings such as 'separation weakens romantic attraction' and 'separation __ romantic attraction'.

strengthens

Cold weather does not by itself make you sick; __ cause illness.

viruses

Critical thinking helps us myths and seek the truth.

disregard

Three roadblocks to critical thinking are hindsight bias, overconfidence, and __ in random events.

perceiving patterns

Tetlock found that 27,000 expert predictions with about 80% confidence were correct less than __ of the time.

40%

Only about __ percent of people excel at predicting social behavior; Tetlock calls them super forecasters.

2

Super forecasters avoid overconfidence; they gather facts, balance clashing arguments, and __ on an answer.

settle

In actual random sequences, patterns and streaks occur more often than people expect, which can lead to seeing __ where there is none.

order

The three powerful tendencies that make common sense thinking flawed are hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to perceive __ in random events.

patterns

Scientific inquiry can help us sift reality from __.

illusion