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Chapter 1-6 Overview: Introduction, Critical Thinking, and Biases

Learning Target

  • Explain how three cognitive biases—hindsight bias, overconfidence, and the tendency to perceive order in random events—show why science-based answers are more reliable than common sense.

Common Sense vs. Psychological Science

  • Intuition can be right but is frequently wrong; repeated statements feel truer (illusion of truth).
  • Myth: “Cold weather causes colds.” Fact: viruses spread more in winter; cold exposure alone does not create illness.
  • Empirical research overturns popular beliefs (e.g., “we use only 10\% of our brain”).

Critical Thinking

  • Involves assessing evidence, discarding myths, and forming conclusions based on data.
  • Psychology relies on critical thinking to move beyond anecdote and intuition.

Roadblocks to Critical Thinking

  • Hindsight bias
  • Overconfidence
  • Perceiving patterns in random events

Hindsight Bias

  • Outcomes seem obvious after they happen (bull’s-eye after the arrow).
  • Demonstrated by presenting opposite “findings”; both felt unsurprising.
  • Common sense explains past better than it predicts future.
  • Supported by 800+ studies across ages and cultures.
  • Quote: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”

Overconfidence

  • People overrate accuracy of knowledge and judgments.
  • Anagram task: knowing answers leads to predicted solve time <10 s, but actual average ≈3 min without answers.
  • Tetlock: 27\,000 expert forecasts; given 80\% confidence, success rate <40\%.
  • Only about 2\% qualify as “super-forecasters”—they gather facts, weigh evidence, and stay cautious.

Perceiving Order in Random Events

  • Humans are pattern seekers; random sequences often misconstrued as non-random.
  • Coin flips (e.g., 50 tosses) show unexpected streaks; similar illusions in sports “hot streaks.”
  • Fraud detectives spot non-random “random” numbers in embezzlement.
  • Pattern seeking reduces uncertainty but fosters false beliefs.

Key Takeaways

  • Common-sense thinking is systematically biased by hindsight, overconfidence, and illusory pattern perception.
  • Scientific inquiry—systematic observation, measurement, and analysis—helps separate reality from illusion.