Creating Sales Forecasts

Sales Forecast

A prediction of the number of guests served and the revenues generated in a future time period.

Importance of Forecasting Sales

Addresses operational questions like guest count and order predictions.

Accurate Revenue Estimates

Benefits of accurate sales forecasts that lead to better financial planning.

Sales History

Systematic recording of all sales achieved during a specific reporting period.

Average Sales per Guest

Calculated by dividing total sales by the number of guests served.

Fixed Average

An average calculated for a specific, unchanging time period.

Rolling Average

An average calculated over a changing time period.

Weighted Average

An average that considers the number of guests and their spending over different time periods.

Sales Variances

Changes from previously experienced sales levels, including absolute and percentage variances.

Absolute Variance

The unit difference between sales periods.

Percentage Variance

Indicates the percentage change in sales from one period to the next.

Revenue Forecast Formula

Sales last year multiplied by (1 + % increase estimate).

Guest Count Forecast Formula

Guest count last year multiplied by (1 + % increase estimate).

YTD Average Calculation

Caution against averaging individual averages for year-to-date calculations.

Factors Affecting Sales Predictions

Consideration of price changes, competition, renovations, and events.

Average Sales Per Guest Forecast

Last year's average sales per guest plus estimated increase.

Inflation Impact

Decreases the purchasing power of the dollar.