12-Judgement and Reasoning

Judgment

the process through which people draw conclusions from the evidence they encounter

frequency estimate

us assessing how often something has happened in the past

attribute substitution

strategy of relying on easily assessed information as a proxy for needed information

availability heuristic

events more easily remembered as judged as being more probable than those less easily remembered

What can heuristics result in?

Errors

Illusory correlations

correlation appears to exist, but either does not exist or is much weaker than assumed

Representativeness heuristic

involves making judgements based on how much an event resembles other events

assumption of homogeneity

an expectation that each individual is representative of the category overall

covariation

X and Y “covary” if the presence of X can be predicted by the presence (or magnitude) of Y and vice versa

Confirmation bias

the tendency to be more alert to evidence that confirms one’s beliefs than to evidence that challenges

Type 1 thinking

fast, automatic thinking. relies on heuristics

Type 2 thinking

slow, effortful thinking. more likely to be correct