3.9: Demographic transition

Theory of demographic transition

The theory that as a country moves from a subsistence economy to industrialization and increased affluence it undergoes a predictable shift in population growth.

Demographic Transition Phase 1

Pre-Industrial Stage: Slow population growth because high birth rates and high death rates which offset each other. “Harsh living conditions”

Demographic Transition Phase 2

Transitional Stage: Rapid population growth because birth rates remain high but death rates decline because of better sanitation, clean drinking water, availability of food and health care.

Demographic Transition Phase 3

Industrial Stage: Stable population growth as the economy and educational system improves and people have fewer children. Most developed countries are in this stage.

Demographic Transition Phase 4

Post-Industrial Stage: Declining population growth because the relatively high level of affluence and economic develop encourage women to delay having children.

Demographic Transition Phase 5

Decrease in population as death rates increase from old age; fewer births