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All leaders are motivated by the desire to gain and maintain office, and must distribute goods to their winning coalition to ensure they stay loyal. If members do not get enough, they will defect to a challenger (vote for someone else)
A regime that holds elections that are not fully free or fair but retains some elements of electoral competition. Also called the “messy middle”
A single individual directs policy and controls access to political posts. No autonomous institutions exist
Electoral Laws
Regulations that govern how votes are counted and how electoral processes are conducted, impacting representation in democracies
A political ideology that divides society into two groups, the pure people and 'the corrupt elite, often leading to authoritarian governance
A single party controls access to political posts and shapes policy, preventing consolidation of power in the hands of one leader
Resources that are available for everyone to consume without competition
Benefits that are only distributed to members of the winning coalition in an authoritarian regime
Countries that exhibit characteristics of both democratic and authoritarian governance, often manipulating electoral processes
A political executive increases its power at the expense of other branches of government
The manipulation of electoral district boundaries to favor one party over another, impacting the fairness of elections
Winning Coalition
The subset of the selectorate whose support is needed for a leader to stay in power
Selectorate
Set of people who can play a role in selecting the leader
Electoral Autocracy (Hybrid Regime)
Systems where leaders take advantage and manipulate institutions to ensure they win an election and retain power. “I’ll do as I please to win an election”
Illiberal Democracy (Hybrid Regime)
Leaders may win an election through a competitive election but then start doing things out of order after. “After winning elections, I do as I please”
Campaign Advantages in Autocracies
Factors that give one candidate an edge over others in elections, such as funding, media coverage, and established networks.
Electoral Laws in Autocracies
Rules governing the conduct of elections that may be manipulated by autocratic regimes to control outcomes and limit genuine competition.
Barriers to Candidate Entry in Autocracies
Obstacles that prevent opposition candidates from running in elections, including strict registration requirements, legal challenges, and intimidation tactics.
Modernization Theory Reversed
The hypothesis that modernization is uneven and causes instability. As societies develop economically, this instability can cause a decline in democratic governance and an increase in authoritarianism.
What is the general theory of autocratic survival?
Autocracies are threatened by rebellion, organized resistance from oppositional elites, and splits in ruling elite. Thus, all autocracies must gain loyalty through a legitimizing basis, repression, co-optation, personality cults, etc.
Three Pillars of Survival Theory
Legitimation, Repression, and Co-optation
The “Legitimizing Idea” - explain to me why you deserve your power!
An authority must provide a rationale or justification for its claim to power and governance, often appealing to ideology, tradition, or popular support.
What is the strategic logic of a personality cult?
Leader generates obedience from citizens through propaganda, forced displays of loyalty, and suppressing opposition
Repression
Actual or threatened physical violence against individuals or groups, designed to impose a cost and deter specific activities
Costs of Repression
Increases odds that isolated acts of resistance will escalate
Shifts in the Mechanics of Repression in the 21st Century
Changes in methods and strategies used by authoritarian regimes to suppress opposition and maintain control over populations in the modern era
Co-Optation
Authoritarian regimes give people a stake in the survival of the regime, through benefits or positions of power for example. This ensures their loyalty by making it their best interest to support the system rather than challenge it
Co-Opting Regime Insiders with Institutions
Power sharing institutions are tools to share power and deliver needed concessions to regime insiders. A credible way of institutionalizing access to resources, influence, opportunities, and allows regime insiders to hold the dictator (leader) accountable
Co-Opting Opposition Elites and Citizens with Elections
A strategy used by authoritarian regimes to maintain control by allowing limited competition in elections, thus creating the illusion of democratic processes while undermining genuine opposition.
Military Coup D’etat As a Source of Most Autocracies Post WWII
Presence of military coup’s has declined since earlier reverse waves of democracy following WWI and WWII in the 1970s
Military Coup D’etat
The overthrow of a government by a small group of the military, using force or the threat of force.
How Democracies Die in the 21st Century - “Death By a Thousand Cuts”
Erodes slowly and incrementally. No singular event, the accumulation of multiple events over time. Legalistic, internal process
Democratic Backsliding vs. Autocratization
Erosion of democracy but still a democracy vs. transitioning from democracy back to authoritarianism
Elements of Autocratization (Haggard & Kaufman Model)
Factors that contribute to the transition from democracy to authoritarianism, including weakening institutions, polarization, increased repression, co-optation of elites, and manipulation of elections.
How did military coups cause an increase in autocratization, and how did their presence decline? (Ex: Cold War)
Increase in autocratization, indicating a shift toward more authoritarian practices, supported by Cold War powers. Over time, no longer had the traditional overthrow of governments by military forces. Authoritarism evolved into non-military forms such as electoral manipulation and media control rather than relying on military force.
Compatability of Populism with Autocratization
Populism pits "the people" against "the elites," weakening democratic institutions and supporting leaders who undermine democracy, leading to autocratization.
Globalization of Autocratization
Autocratization is spreading to liberal democratic regimes once seen as consolidated, like Hungary, Poland, Italy, and Greece because of economic troubles and integration problems
What do these trends imply about the consolidation of democracy?
These trends imply that authoritarian persistence, selectorate theory, legitimacy, and weak institutions hinder democratic consolidation. Factors like elite survival and control of resources slow the transition to stable democracies.
China As a “Party Autocracy”
No elections held, so no elections to lose. Clever mix of co-optation, repression, and highly adaptable institutions
How do China and Mexico differ under the PRI regarding camouflaging their regime with institutions and functions of a democratic system?
China has no attempt to camouflage its one-party dictatorship, while Mexico under the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) camouflaged its authoritarian regime through democratic institutions and elections
Party-State / Duplication / Parallel Organization
In China, the Communist Party and state institutions overlap, with the same people holding roles in both. Power flows from the top down
Methods of Institutionalization in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Norm-bound succession (leaders serve two consecutive terms), meritocracy (bureaucrats are promoted based on performance), separation of party and business (CCP does not directly manage business enterprise), selective repression
How do party-regimes collapse?
Fail to adapt or manage stability, dissent, and institutionalization
Transformation of Repression and Co-optation in China
Balances selective repression (resorting to violence when needed, but not commonly) with controlled “input institutions”, allowing limited participation while maintaining tight control over political power
China’s Economic Trends (over the last several decades, and the last several years)
Post-Mao China is a high-performing autocracy with political stability, economic growth, public services, and policy innovations, accomplished with a different form of “institutionalization”
Xi Jingping’s Impact on Norm Succession, Institutionalization
Leader removed party regime and became personalist, removing law of norm-bound succession where each leader served 2 consecutive terms
China As a Personalist Autocracy
Post-Mao China is a high-performing autocracy, emphasizing political stability and economic growth
Head of State vs. Head of Government
Symbol of the nation vs. running the country’s administration
Formal, Partisan, and Informal Powers
Formal powers are institutionalized by law, while partisan and informal powers are derived from party affiliation and personal connections
Presidential Systems: Key Traits, Advantages, and Disadvantages
Forms of executive power defined by separate elections, and separate survival of executive and legislative branches. Difficult for single person to dominate, but then electoral authority is fragmented
“Separate” Survival and Elections
Executive power defined by separate elections and separate survival of executive and legislative branches. Ex: If you voted in November, you voted for a President and a member of Congress. Your choices are independent of each other, for example, a Democratic President and a Republican member of House of Representatives
“European Model” of Democracy
Emphasizes parliamentary systems, multi-party systems, and a focus on rights and freedoms.
How does the government in a parliamentary system form?
Formed by the party or coalition with a majority in the legislature
Parliamentary Systems: Key Traits, Advantages, and Disadvantages
Parliamentary systems combine executive and legislative powers, ensuring majority rule but possibly leading to instability
Indirect Election
Voters elect representatives who then choose leaders
Cabinets and Ministerial Portfolios
Groups of ministers appointed to manage different areas of government
Prime Ministers Question Time
Lead the executive branch in a parliamentary system
Vote of Confidence
Parliamentary support for the government
Snap Election
Any election that occurs before the regular expiration, often to resolve a political crisis
Shadow Cabinets
An informal group of opposition party members of parliament who are responsible for understanding everything that is going on in a particular ministry. Ex: minister of finance has a shadow minister of finance
Single Party Majority Government (Features and Consequences)
Controls all key decisions, often ensuring stability but limiting diversity
Party Discipline
Coalitions
Temporary but formal agreements between parties to pool votes together, in order to form a government
Models of Coalition Formation (Minimum Winning, Minimum Connected, etc)
Formed with the minimum number of parties needed to achieve a majority or with the most ideologically compatible partners.
Grand Coalitions
A single coalition government formed by the unity of the two largest parties, often centrist, typically to ensure stability in times of crisis or when no party holds a clear majority
Semi-Presidential Systems
System combining a president with a prime minister, balancing executive power
Why does repression work?
Increases cost of opposing regime, reduces collective action (especially popular protest), and overall lowers the risk of collapse