Trading Journal

I can exit a trade at

a fair value gap or the dynamic reactor

I take trades based on the weekly trend

In the direction of the trend using Marketspy flags/squares, and in the opposite direction, using Chart Prime Div or OS/OB at extremes and at support and resistance.

I take trades based on the weekly trend using flags/squares

in the direction of the trend

I take trades based on the weekly trend using divergence or overbought/ oversold signals

at support/ resistance for a reversal and at extreme levels of OS/OB or divergence

Quantitative easing

increases liquidity

Quantitative tightening

restricts liquidity.

Avoid taking longs into …

resistance..

Avoid taking shorts into…

supports

The Coin I need to keep dollar cost average into is…

Kaspa

I need to consider mining_________ and diversify the profits into___________

Kaspa, trading

• Start taking reversal only after

• Strong trends on the weekly, either at close or live, therefore increasing the odds of good entries.

• The analyst desk only trades in the direction of

• the strength meter and plans out the pairs and necessary numbers ahead of time.

• I need to preplan and

• start watching videos from the analyst desk

use order blocks to …

place SL under

Trading setups now involve:

• involves flags and box entries with Marketspy as continuations in the direction of the strength meter on weekly or daily trend, real-time, and closed price stream

• Divergences as reversals on Chart Prime with charts at extremes touching support /resistance -only with pairs that have been strongly trended (end of trend as long it hasn’t been sustained for long) using strength meter on weekly trend, real-time and closed price stream

• OS or OB as reversals using Chart Prime at extremes touching support /resistance at the end of a strong trend using the strength meter on weekly or daily trend closed price stream (as long as it hasn’t been sustained for long) (market milk s.m.)

• On lower time frames, take only trades in the direction of the 4-hour trend (strength meter at close) since reversals need a strong four-hour or daily support /resistance

• Take 5 min /2 min /15 min entries only in the direction of the trend

• Only take a possible reversal on the 4hr entry at extremes of price action and at support/resistance

order blocks can be used as an …

entry and exit

when looking for possible targets include

order blocks, dynamic reactor, strong resistance

always pay attention to the following news

events that can impact market volatility, including economic reports, central bank announcements, and geopolitical developments.

cpi, fomc report, interest rate, jobs report

• forecasting means …..

• first looking at the strength meter and narrowing down the pairs I look at. Then look for divergence or OS/OB at extremes with support and resistance OR flags using market spy in the direction of the weekly trend (at the close or real-time)

• should always forecast

• for the next day

What is a common theme among good traders?

the practice a form of premarket or market forecasting

what is a common mistake i tend to repeat

I keep getting into the same trade (revenge trading)

• Remember to move SL to ____when the price has moved significantly

BE when the price has moved significantly and then add on trades if the trend is strong without strong resistance or supportmoved

FOMC minutes are the official document that puts in writing, what?

a summary of the CPI, PCE & jobs reports building up after the last meeting. We are looking for signs of when central banks are preparing to inject liquidity into the markets.

  A pause in QT will be a

bullish signal for crypto markets.

What are the Five Key Elements of a Successful Swing Trade?

1)FOMC Meeting Calendar Date Alignment

2) Track Regulation

3) On Chain Data

4) Classic Patterns & Trendlines

5) Chart Indicators

Identify mistakes that are making me lose the most money lately

trades where you cut short your take profit (TP) are not profitable

What are a few areas to explore to improve your trading

1. Review your trading journal: Keep a detailed record of your trades, including entry and exit points, setups, and market conditions. This will help you identify patterns and areas for improvement.

2. Analyze your mistakes: Identify the most common mistakes you make and develop strategies to avoid them.

3. Refine your setups: Evaluate the performance of your different setups and focus on the ones that are most profitable.

What are the steps to prepare for a trade?

It begins with fundamentals & on-chain data, then transitions to technical analysis to confirm the fundamental hypothesis.

What are charts a reflection of?

Charts, as we know, are a direct reflection of market psychology, providing essential insights into market sentiment.

Why are FOMC meetings the cornerstone of successful swing trades?

FOMC meetings are the cornerstone of successful swing trade planning. Highest yield swing trades have consistently coincided with calendar dates aligned with FOMC meetings

How are the FOMC meetings the cornerstone of trades?

Whether it’s starting to DCA a week in advance based on expectations of dovish reports or waiting for detailed insights from the FED’s balance sheet, such as quantitative tightening updates (bond auctions), FOMC meetings are the cornerstone of trades.

How do we monitor interest rates for trading?

 Monitor whether the Federal Reserve raises, lowers, or holds interest rates steady. Rate cuts signal a risk-on environment favourable for crypto, while hikes trigger risk-off sentiment.

What Economic Projections should we pay attention to?

Pay attention to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes GDP growth, inflation forecasts & the dot plot indicating future rate expectations. Future rate cut projections influence long-term market sentiment.

How should we analyze the FED Chair Statements?

Analyze the tone of the press conference & statements made by the Federal Reserve Chair. Dovish language supports bullish market sentiment, while hawkish comments lead to selloffs.

What do we look for in the Balance sheet Updates.

Look for details on quantitative easing (QE) or quantitative tightening (QT) plans. An expanding balance sheet injects liquidity into markets, benefiting crypto. Currently, the FOMC has been purchasing bonds through bond auctions, a process we track within macroeconomic analysis. This reflects quantitative tightening; a transition to quantitative easing will transform this bull market into a super cycle.

What do we look for in Labor Market Data during the FOMC?

Observe discussions about employment & jobs data, as a strong labor market can delay rate cuts, impacting risk assets like crypto. Lagging indicators, such as wage growth, currently reveal a weakening labor market, despite the FED's claims of stability. A decline in American jobs will push the FED toward cutting rates more aggressively to stimulate economic growth.

What do we look forin the Inflation Outlook

Focus on how the FED views inflation trends (CPI/PCE measures). Expectations of declining inflation can lead to rate cuts, boosting the crypto market. During the bull market, inflation metrics will take center stage. Lagging indicators, such as warehouse prices & supply chain data, offer insights into the FOMC's next moves.

How do we view the Fed’s Forward Guidance

 Evaluate the FED's guidance on the trajectory of monetary policy. Statements about the timing of future rate cuts or hikes drive immediate market reactions.

How should we track regulation?

  Monitoring regulation is important for successful swing trades. Key areas include ETFs, SEC decisions, global monetary policies like the Bank of Japan (BOJ) & AI-specific regulatory developments. Before trading, utilize AI (ChatGPT) to uncover regulatory factors impacting specific asset, sector, or crypto market

How do I effectively analyze on-chain data before entering a swing trade

To effectively analyze on-chain data before entering a swing trade, utilize the following resources:

• Active Wallet Addresses & Transaction Volume:

  • Glassnode: Provides comprehensive on-chain metrics, including active addresses & transaction volumes.

  • CoinGecko: Offers data on various cryptocurrencies, including transaction volumes.

  • CryptoQuant: Supplies on-chain analytics, including wallet activity and market trends.

What is one habit that I must avoid doing and just move onto the next trade?

Avoid overtrading and reentering a tade

What news report should I pay attention to most?

CPI and interest rate announcements

What MA should I avoid trading into the most?

The White Median line on Market Spy

What do I do to a SL when price has moved substantially

Move the SL to BE

What indicates an extreme in overall price movement in Marketspy?

Movement away from the base + widened moving averages

What am I looking for in a crypto market Top? When should I take profit?

Look for signs of reversal such as bearish divergence, a spike in volume, or rapid price increase. Taking profit is advisable when these indicators appear.

• Bitcoin Dominance has fallen to 44%, or I have reached 3.5 million total

• refer to Nov 26 2024 in journal for more notes

• Get out 30% of Kasper once it reaches Sept to mid-October 2025, or $3.00(whatever comes first), and then let the rest ride.

• Get out of 20,000 Kaspa at $0.94 and then 50,000 at $ 1.44

• Get out of 8,0000 xrp at $8.77 and let the rest ride to 19.77, at which point sell 10,0000 xrp, let the rest ride

• Hbar: 10,000 at $0.87

• Ethereum: 1 at $7000, 1 at $9700and look for a bearish trend reversal.

• 30-40% 0ut on Nov 1 2025 or:

  • and Check Bitcoin Dominance, out at 43% dominance

  • peak will occur when Fed Starts tightning

  • and check Total 2 and 3 for peak

  • also check Tether Dominance to see when it's peaking, sign of bitcoin peaking

• To improve your trading strategy on when to take profits in a crypto market top, consider adding the following suggestions:

  1. Set Clear Profit Targets: Determine your exit points in advance, according to market conditions, and stick to them.

  2. Diversify Profit Taking: Instead of selling all at once, consider selling portions at different price points. This strategy balances the risk of missing out on additional gains while securing some profits.

  3. Use Technical Indicators: Incorporate multiple technical indicators like Moving Averages, RSI, or MACD alongside your current indicators. This can provide more comprehensive insights into potential reversals or confirmations of the market top.

  4. Monitor Market Sentiment: Keep an eye on news, social media dynamics, and market sentiment throughout the trading period. Positive or negative shifts in sentiment can impact price movements significantly.

  5. Adjust Based on Bitcoin Action: Since Bitcoin often leads the altcoin market, pay close attention to its movements as they may give clues regarding market tops for other cryptocurrencies, including your positions in Kaspa, XRP, Hbar, and Ethereum.

  6. Review Past Performance: Reflect on your past decisions regarding profit-taking. Analyzing previous trades can provide insights into what worked and what didn’t, helping you refine your approach in the future.

How does Quantitative Easing work?

The FED buys bonds from Institutions like Black rock to increase money supply and stimulate the economy.

How does Quantitative Tightening work?

The FED sells bonds to institutions like Black Rock and therefore reduces the money supply and curb inflation.

Employment Situation Report (Jobs Report)

What does It Measure?

• Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.

How does the job report affect the FOMC?

• Strong Report (High Job Growth, Low Unemployment, Rising Wages):

  • Potential Action:

    • Rate Hikes when inflation concerns are high or nearing peak economic growth.

    • Pause/Neutral Stance when the Fed has already raised rates substantially or inflation remains stable.

  • Reason: A tight labor market will create inflationary pressure through higher consumer spending.

• Middle Ground:

  • Rate Pause: When the Fed is nearing its tightening limit, but inflation is not fully contained.

• Weak Report (Low Job Growth, High Unemployment, Stagnant Wages):

  • Potential Action:

    • Rate Cuts/QE, economic slowdown or recession risks increase.

    • No Action, the Fed expects temporary weakness or sees conflicting data elsewhere.

  • Reason: A sluggish labor market signals weakened demand & reduced inflation risks.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

What does It Measure?

• Monthly change in consumer prices, reflecting inflation.

What is the CPI report’s affect on the FOMC?

• High CPI (Above 2% Target):

  • Potential Action:

    • Rate Hikes when inflation continues rising.

    • Pause/Monitoring prior rate hikes are still affecting the economy, but inflation is persistent.

  • Reason: Persistent inflation above target suggests overheating in the economy.

• Middle Ground:

  • Rate Pause: Inflation remains elevated but shows signs of slowing.

• Low CPI (Below 2% Target):

  • Potential Action:

    • Rate Cuts/QE to boost inflation when risks of deflation emerge.

    • No Action the economy is still growing despite low inflation.

  • Reason: Low inflation signals weakened demand, prompting stimulus measures.

What are the key data points to observe during FOMC meetings that provide insights for crypto trading?

• 1) Interest Rate Decisions

     

• 2) Economic Projections

     

• 3) FED Chair Statements

     

• 4) Balance Sheet Updates

     

• 5) Labor Market Data Discussion

     

• 6) Inflation Outlook

       

• 7) Forward Guidance

     

What do you pay attention to for interest rate decisions?

•   Monitor whether the Federal Reserve raises, lowers, or holds interest rates steady. Rate cuts signal a risk-on environment favorable for crypto, while hikes trigger risk-off sentiment.

what do pay attention to for economic projections during an FOMC report?

•  Pay attention to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes GDP growth, inflation forecasts & the dot plot indicating future rate expectations. Future rate cut projections influence long-term market sentiment. This information shapes the duration of the "distribution phase," leading to heightened interest from investment banks in specific asset classes, particularly in sectors like DeFi & AI, as the "distribution phase" expands. The watchlist of $100M market cap projects was curated to highlight assets poised for upside on confirmation of the "distribution phase."

what do you pay attention to in Fed Chair Statements?

•   Analyze the tone of the press conference & statements made by the Federal Reserve Chair. Dovish language supports bullish market sentiment, while hawkish comments lead to selloffs. Recently, Powell has maintained a relatively monotone stance. However, during the peak of the bull market, he can change tone to regain central bank control over fiat, marking the cycle's top & curbing inflation.

What do you pay attention to in Balance sheet updates during the FOMC?

•   Look for details on quantitative easing (QE) or quantitative tightening (QT) plans. An expanding balance sheet injects liquidity into markets, benefiting crypto. Currently, the FOMC has been purchasing bonds through bond auctions, a process we track within macroeconomic analysis. This reflects quantitative tightening; a transition to quantitative easing will transform this bull market into a super cycle.

What do you pay attention to about Labour market data discussions?

•   Observe discussions about employment & jobs data, as a strong labor market can delay rate cuts, impacting risk assets like crypto. Lagging indicators, such as wage growth, currently reveal a weakening labor market, despite the FED's claims of stability. A decline in American jobs will push the FED toward cutting rates more aggressively to stimulate economic growth.

What do you pay attention to about the inflation outlook during the FOMC?

• Focus on how the FED views inflation trends (CPI/PCE measures). Expectations of declining inflation can lead to rate cuts, boosting the crypto market. During the bull market, inflation metrics will take center stage. Lagging indicators, such as warehouse prices & supply chain data, offer insights into the FOMC's next moves.

What do you pay attention to about forward guidance during the FOMC?

•   Evaluate the FED's guidance on the trajectory of monetary policy. Statements about the timing of future rate cuts or hikes drive immediate market reactions. The Federal Reserve has yet to provide any indication of its plans for the December 17th meeting. A 25 basis point rate cut, however, will create a bullish environment for crypto markets.