factors influecing voting in elections

partisanship

• Voters may choose to support a party because they strongly identify with that party

• There has been partisan dealignment in the UK recently where voters have stopped identifying with a particularly party and have instead become floating voters who could vote for a number of parties

• Disillusion and apathy explain the loss of party appeal to voters - it means that voters have become disengaged in politics and lack confidence in politicians to be able to solve important issues

• In the 2024 GE, voting patterns showed continued fragmentation, with increased support for smaller parties

class-based voting

• Traditionally social class influenced who citizens voted for, with working class people supporting the Labour Party and the middle classes voting for the Conservatives

• Class dealignment has taken place, with fewer voters identifying themselves as much with a specific political class, so social class has less influence on voting

  • This can be explained by the increase in the size of the UK’s middle class, the decline in trade union power, the privatisation of industries and greater educational opportunities

governing competency

• Governing competency is how voters perceive the ability of each party to run the country effectively

• The success of a government’s policy, including economic policy and strong leadership, affects how competent they appear to voters, whilst voters are also influenced by the potential governing competence of opposition parties

  • In 1997 Major’s lack of competency was a factor in Labour winning the election

• In the 2024 GE, perceptions of Conservative government performance after 2019-24 were a key factor contributing to their loss of power to Labour

age

• Traditionally, older people support the Conservatives

  • This is often explained by older voters prioritising stability and protecting their material interests, although the reasons are not fully certain

  • In 2024, only about 8% of under-30s voted Conservative, compared to around 46& of over-70s

• Young people are less likely to vote than older people, although this gap has narrowed slightly in recent elections

  • In the 2024 GE, around 78% of people aged 65+ voted, compared with about 50% of 18-24 year olds

region

• Geographical region and where people live are important influences on voting decisions

• Voters in poorer areas of the country, such as the north of England and Wales, are more likely to support Labour

• Voters in wealthier areas such as the south of England, except London, and rural areas more often support the Conservatives

• In the 2024 GE, Labour strengthened its position in many urban and northern constituencies, while Conservative support remained stronger in parts of southern England

ethnicity & gender

• Ethnic minorities are more likely to support Labour because Labour policies are often stronger in promoting a multi-cultural agenda

  • In 2017, 65% of ethnic minorities supported Labour

• Historically, women were more likely to support the Conservatives than men because of the Conservatives’ emphasis on the family, which was thought to be an important factor for women when choosing how to vote

• More recently, gender has been less significant in influencing voters

• In the 2024 GE, voting patterns by gender showed relatively small differences

age - 1979, 1997, 2010, 2024

• 1979 - age was less significant, with a similar level of support for Labour (41%) and the Conservatives (42%) from voters aged 18-24

• 1997 - many more younger people supported the Labour party with 49% of voters aged 18-24 and 25-34 voting for Labour

• 2010 - there was large difference among older voters, with 44% of voters aged 65+ supporting the Conservatives compared to 31% of young voters supporting Labour

• 2024 - there was a large age divide in party support, with 41% of voters aged 18-29 voting for Labour and 46% of voters 70+ voting for Conservatives

social class - 1979, 1997, 2010, 2024

• 1979 - class was important, with the Conservatives winning 59% of the middle class vote, whilst Labour won the largest share of the unskilled working class at 49%

• 1997 - Labour won 50% of the skilled working class vote, and 59% of the unskilled working class vote - Conservatives won 27% of the skilled working class vote and 21% of the unskilled working class vote

• 2010 - class played less of a role with the Conservatives winning the most middle class support, at 39%, and Labour narrowly winning the most support of the unskilled working class

  • The Conservatives won more support from the skilled working class, despite this group mainly supporting Labour in previous elections

• 2024 - class remained relevant, but the traditional Labour working-class relationship had weakened considerably - Labour won 39% of the middle class vote and 36% of the working class vote - Conservatives won 25% of the middle class vote and 24% of the working class vote

gender - 1979, 1997, 2010, 2024

• 1979 - 47% of voters supported the Conservatives compared to 35% of women supporting Labour

• 1997 - more women supported Labour, with 44% of voting for the party, and more men also supported Labour, with 45% voting for Labour compared to 31% for the Conservatives

• 2010 - higher percentages of both men and women supported the Conservatives than any other party

  • Labour and Conservatives received similar levels of support across men and women, suggesting that gender has had less of an impact on voting behaviour in more recent years

• 2024 - gender had relatively little impact on Labour and Conservative voting, with 37% of men and 40% of women voting Labour, while 23% of men and 24% of women voted Conservative