(Population Trends: DTM Models) Geo 2024

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Unit 3

Geography

7 Terms

1

The Origin of the DTM model

-A model which works to show the various stages stages of population through the Industrial Revolution and Present (since 1929)

→ based on historic birth and death trends

-Model does not account for migration

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2

DTM Stage: 1) HIGH STATIONARY

  1. Birth Rate =  High

  2. Death Rate = High 

  3. Natural Increase = Low to zero - fluctuating 

  4. Reasons for Pattern = Wars, pandemics, agricultural (large families = workforce), high infant mortality, inadequate sanitation and health care 

  5. Country Examples = all countries up to 1800s

<ol><li><p><span>Birth Rate =&nbsp; High</span></p></li><li><p><span>Death Rate = High&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Natural Increase = Low to zero - fluctuating&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Reasons for Pattern = Wars, pandemics, agricultural (large families = workforce), high infant mortality, inadequate sanitation and health care&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Country Examples = all countries up to 1800s</span></p></li></ol>
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3

DTM Stage: 2) EARLY EXPANDING

  1. Birth Rate =  High 

  2. Death Rate = Decreasing 

  3. Natural Increase = High

  4. Reasons for Pattern = Modern medicine introduced - “germ theory of disease,” (infant mortality rate = decreasing), improvements in agriculture and sanitation, education 

  5. Country Examples = Guatemala, Palestine, Yemen 

<ol><li><p><span>Birth Rate =&nbsp; High&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Death Rate = Decreasing&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Natural Increase = High</span></p></li><li><p><span>Reasons for Pattern = Modern medicine introduced - “germ theory of disease,” (infant mortality rate = decreasing), improvements in agriculture and sanitation, education&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Country Examples = Guatemala, Palestine, Yemen&nbsp;</span></p></li></ol>
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4

DTM Stage: 3) LATE EXPANDING

  1. Birth Rate =  Decreasing 

  2. Death Rate = Low

  3. Natural Increase = High but decreasing 

  4. Reasons for Pattern = Increase in women’s status, education and birth control, improved medicine 

  5. Country Examples = Jamaica, India

<ol><li><p><span>Birth Rate =&nbsp; Decreasing&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Death Rate = Low</span></p></li><li><p><span>Natural Increase = High but decreasing&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Reasons for Pattern = Increase in women’s status, education and birth control, improved medicine&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Country Examples = Jamaica, India</span></p></li></ol>
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5

DTM Stage: 4) LOW STATIONARY

  1. Birth Rate =  Low

  2. Death Rate = Low

  3. Natural Increase = Low to Zero 

  4. Reasons for Pattern = Stronger economy, healthcare, education, working women, fertility rate = 2 or lower 

  5. Country Examples = Most developed countries

<ol><li><p><span>Birth Rate =&nbsp; Low</span></p></li><li><p><span>Death Rate = Low</span></p></li><li><p><span>Natural Increase = Low to Zero&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Reasons for Pattern = Stronger economy, healthcare, education, working women, fertility rate = 2 or lower&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Country Examples = Most developed countries</span></p></li></ol>
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6

DTM Stage: 5) DECLINING

  1. Birth Rate =  Low 

  2. Death Rate = Low (but higher than birth rate)

  3. Natural Increase = Decreasing 

  4. Reasons for Pattern = Aging population, population policies (Ex. china’s one-child policy), some growth due to net migration rates 

  5. Country Examples = Germany

<ol><li><p><span>Birth Rate =&nbsp; Low&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Death Rate = Low (but higher than birth rate)</span></p></li><li><p><span>Natural Increase = Decreasing&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Reasons for Pattern = Aging population, population policies (Ex. china’s one-child policy), some growth due to net migration rates&nbsp;</span></p></li><li><p><span>Country Examples = Germany</span></p></li></ol>
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7

TRICK QUESTION ABOUT POPULATION: How many children does one need to have to increase the population?

a couple needs 3 kids to add to the population → replaces two parents, plus one more → steady increase

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