The Origin of the DTM model
-A model which works to show the various stages stages of population through the Industrial Revolution and Present (since 1929)
→ based on historic birth and death trends
-Model does not account for migration
DTM Stage: 1) HIGH STATIONARY
Birth Rate =Â High
Death Rate = HighÂ
Natural Increase = Low to zero - fluctuatingÂ
Reasons for Pattern = Wars, pandemics, agricultural (large families = workforce), high infant mortality, inadequate sanitation and health careÂ
Country Examples = all countries up to 1800s
DTM Stage: 2) EARLY EXPANDING
Birth Rate =Â HighÂ
Death Rate = DecreasingÂ
Natural Increase = High
Reasons for Pattern = Modern medicine introduced - “germ theory of disease,” (infant mortality rate = decreasing), improvements in agriculture and sanitation, educationÂ
Country Examples = Guatemala, Palestine, YemenÂ
DTM Stage: 3) LATE EXPANDING
Birth Rate =Â DecreasingÂ
Death Rate = Low
Natural Increase = High but decreasingÂ
Reasons for Pattern = Increase in women’s status, education and birth control, improved medicineÂ
Country Examples = Jamaica, India
DTM Stage: 4) LOW STATIONARY
Birth Rate =Â Low
Death Rate = Low
Natural Increase = Low to ZeroÂ
Reasons for Pattern = Stronger economy, healthcare, education, working women, fertility rate = 2 or lowerÂ
Country Examples = Most developed countries
DTM Stage: 5) DECLINING
Birth Rate =Â LowÂ
Death Rate = Low (but higher than birth rate)
Natural Increase = DecreasingÂ
Reasons for Pattern = Aging population, population policies (Ex. china’s one-child policy), some growth due to net migration ratesÂ
Country Examples = Germany
TRICK QUESTION ABOUT POPULATION: How many children does one need to have to increase the population?
a couple needs 3 kids to add to the population → replaces two parents, plus one more → steady increase