poli 10 actual flashcards

I actually made them this time

what is public opinion

citizen attitudes about political issues, personalities, events, and institutions

why do politicians care about public opinion

they respond to public opinion to win reelection and want to lead public opinion to secure their own policy preferences

how do people express opinions

polls, social media posts, protests, calls/letters to politicians, meetings/town halls with lawmakers, lawn signs, working on campaigns, voting

what are the personal factors of public opinion

self interest (what benefits them personally such as money, safety, opportunities such as businesses opposing higher taxes), values (culture, what’s right or wrong, family, religion, traditions such as pro-lifers are religion), and information (some people dont know politics or some know a lot)

what are the social factors of public opinion

political socialization (friends, political environment, family), media, movies, tv, opinion leaders (people follow what someone says because they dont have a strong political opinion of their own and wants to have one)

what are the political factors of public opinion

partisanship (e.g. when republicans think the economy is bad under a democrat but good under a republican), ideology (organized attitudes about how the government should work, tied to underlying principles)

conservative meaning

government should play a smaller role in society and organization (e.g., churches) and free market should solve problem

liberal meaning

government should play a larger role in society; supports more government involvement in economy, social services, civil rights

how public opinion changes

changes in the political agenda, party positions, Issue importance, Thermostatic public opinion, Probably NOT misinformation

partisanship

Partisanship refers to a strong loyalty or attachment to a particular political party. It influences how people interpret information and form political opinions.

thermostatic public opinion

• public opinion shifts in response to government actions

• When the government moves too far in one direction, public opinion "adjusts" in the opposite direction.

issue importance

how much the public cares about a specific political issue at a given time.

what is polling

systematic methodology to collect and quantify opinions from a representative random group of people to understand public sentiment, predict outcomes, or inform decision-making processes

why polling?

The ideal: a perfect understanding of everyone’s opinion

The practical goal: estimate opinion from a random representative sample of individuals

elements of a poll

sample: people to interview

Questionnaire: a set of questions to ask everyone (ways questions are phrased —may incline people to answer a specific answer)

Mode: the way you interview people (face to face, social media, email, etc.)

what was the literary digest project 1936

nationwide poll of Americans through Magazine and postcards with ballots (38 percentage off) (Landon v Roosevelt) (today, we are off by about 2 %) (magazines and postcards sent to people who have cars so the people who responded were in Landon’s (republican’s) demographic audience)

what are the two biases

sampling bias: not a true representation—> might be intentionally selected—no “directory” of Americans (no website that lists every person in the U.S. so how you gonna contact every person?) Non-response bias: some people don't answer

what is the margin of error

Margin of error (technical definition): range within which the true population value is likely to fall

Margin of error (conventional definition): amount of random sampling error in a survey’s results, reported to indicate precision

Doesn’t account for non-representative sampling and bias’s

what is weighting

Weighing increasing a sub-group’s (usually underrepresented) contribution to the result

what is one issue with weighting

what if the people you are weighing wouldn’t have answered the way the other people did

how do people feel about their parties

they like their parties less and less over time — they are starting to like third parties more

what are parties

Coalition (politicians, interest groups, activists, voters, etc.) that seeks to control government by winning elections

how do parties solve collective action problems

by coordinating group activities (e.g. Instead of multiple candidates from the same side running for president and splitting the vote, parties hold primary elections to choose one candidate who represents the party.),

promoting issues programs (e.g. The Democratic Party focuses on healthcare, climate change, and social justice, while the Republican Party emphasizes low taxes, gun rights, and national security.),

translating public preferences into policies (e.g. If many voters want higher minimum wages, the Democratic Party (which supports this) will push for wage increase laws.)

what are the three roles of parties

government, institution, electorate

what is the party’s role in the government

1. coordinate, reduce transaction costs (opportunity, money, energy) (they know which principles to follow) (you don’t have to talk to all members to revise a bill e.g.) (networking is easier if you are both a part of the same party)

2. select leaders, set agenda (further reduces transaction costs as they elect someone else to take on these costs) (gives one problem to focus on)

3. introduce and pass legislation (parties work together to pass bills they support and oppose)

what is the party’s role as an institution

1. recruit candidates, mobilize voters, and win elections (they take on the cost of getting votes) (e.g. DNC and RNC who fundraiser, campaign, organize, support candidates, define their platforms)

2. provide cues to voters (people who dont follow politics that much and rely on voting for someone if they are either Dem or Rep—saves you time from researching their policies)

3. enforce collective action and responsibility (parties make their members generally hold the same issues as the democratic citizens/public)

what is duverger’s law

single-member plurality systems tend to favor two-party systems

what is the winner-takes-all/first past the post

Winner-Takes-All (also called First Past the Post - FPTP) is a voting system where the candidate with the most votes wins, even if they don’t get a majority (more than 50%).

what are decentralized parties

U.S. parties are “loose networks” rather than hierarchical organizations (e.g. Trump can make a bill and tell them to pass it but the congress members can choose not to listen) Decentralization allows for ideological flexibility and “big tents” (faith and flag conservatives and ambivalent right for example are right parties but one is super extreme and the other is super loose) (“big tents” means like combine the different hierarchical positions of party stance — for example like really far left and closer to the right but still left— to get all their support and win since they are under all the same party)

what is the party’s role in the electorate

• Candidate Selection: Political parties help identify and promote candidates for public office. They provide resources, funding, and infrastructure to help their candidates run for office.

• Voter Education: Parties aim to educate voters about their platform, policies, and values. They do this through advertising, debates, speeches, and other forms of outreach.

• Mobilization: Parties work to get people to the polls. They organize rallies, door-to-door canvassing, phone banks, and other efforts to encourage voter turnout.

• Representation: Once elected, party representatives are expected to advocate for the interests and values of the people who voted for them, based on the party's platform.

what is party sorting?

Party sorting is the process where people's political beliefs become more closely aligned with their political party, making parties more ideologically distinct from each other.

e.g. Sorts conservatives with republicans and progressives are sorted with Democrats (few liberal republicans and Conservative Republicans)

what is the gender gap

Men and women vote for different parties (before, there wasn’t much as a gap and now there is a big gap such as men vote for conservatives and women vote progressive)

what is the diploma divide and demographic divides

More demographic gaps between parties (ex: diploma divide—conservatives have less education and progressives have higher education— but this was the opposite before) other opposing party demographics include married and single people, working class and rich people, low-income and high-income)

why dont third parties win

they dont want to waste their vote (people aren’t going to run a third party candidate because you are going to only get about 10% of the vote which doesn’t get you the win — you aren’t going to waste your vote on the third party, you are going to vote for the person closest to your views from the other party) Ex: Bernie Sanders ran as a democrat even though he is an independent because he knew that third parties don’t win and he could win under on of the two biggest parties as he could just run up the ranks and compete against the democratic candidates and win

what is direct democracy

when citizens vote on laws and policies themselves, rather than electing representatives to decide for them. It works best in small groups or local governments

what is representative democracy

when citizens elect officials to make decisions and pass laws on their behalf. This system is used in large governments like the U.S.

what is the two wolves and a lamb theory

(the lamb is the minority and their rights get trampled on as the wolves would eat the lamb if they all voted on it) If decisions are made purely by voting without protections, the majority could exploit or harm the minority.

This idea is often used to argue for constitutional protections and representative democracy, where rights are safeguarded regardless of what the majority wants. In the U.S., for example, the Bill of Rights

what do elections do

motivates responsiveness (agents want to be reelected)

gives citizens a say in who represents them (selecting agents)

allows for fire alarm oversight

why are people deciding to vote less

electoral outcomes are collective benefits (free riding): (transaction cost is less because now you don’t have to research or cast your ballot)

The paradox of voting (people think it doesn’t matter if they vote for the republican candidate because they know they are going to lose anyway) (people think that their vote wont be the deciding vote between two candidates)

Older people, white voters, people with a higher income, and people with a higher education are more likely to turn out more to the polls

what is paradox voting

people think it doesn’t matter if they vote for the republican candidate because they know they are going to lose anyway

how do voters decide

1. partisan loyalty

2. issues and policy stances (progressive vs. prospective voting)

what is prospective voting

when voters make decisions based on what a candidate or party promises to do in the future. They consider policies, plans, and potential outcomes before casting their vote.

what is retrospective voting

when voters decide based on past performance, judging whether a candidate or party has done a good job. They look at the economy, policies, or leadership and vote accordingly.

median voter theorem

where candidates choose to position themselves at one of the ten ideological locations to appeal to the median voter and win elections.

what is federalism

Separation of powers between federal and state governments

what is a laboratory of democracy

the idea that states can experiment with policies. This concept comes from U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, who argued that individual states can test new laws and policies without risking harm to the entire country - if it succeeds, it might get adopted to the fed or other states and if it fails, it doesn’t spread and its the states’ problem

what is dual federalism

“layer cake federalism”

• The national and state governments operate separately within their own areas of power.

• Each level of government has distinct responsibilities with little overlap.

• Example: Before the New Deal, states handled education and roads, while the federal government focused on foreign affairs and defense.

what is concurrent federalism

“marble cake federalism”

• The national and state governments share powers and responsibilities, often working together.

• There is overlap between federal and state authority.

• Example: Both federal and state governments collect taxes, enforce laws, and build infrastructure.

what are some trends where there is an increased national power

in times of crisis such as war

Direct election of the senate (Senators used to be elected by state governments)

Supremacy clause (National government wins over state government)

Elastic clause

what is nationalization

Nationalization is when the federal government takes control over policies, industries, or powers that were previously handled by state or local governments or private entities

how does nationalization appear in voting

knowledge and attention to national politics at the expense of local politics

You know your president

Using the same criteria to evaluate local and national candidates

You vote for party on everything just because you want your president to be democrat

“People vote for the party not the person’ (Fiorina 2016)

whose past vote share would rather want to if you wanted to predict if the candidate won

You would rather know the president’s past vote share than the candidate’s last vote share if we were trying to predict if the candidate would win because of nationalization (if president is republican and the candidate was too, then they probably won)

what is a state government trifecta

governor, state assembly, and state senate are all one party

We used to have divided state government but now republicans are now controlling all three now

what do democrats do with trifectas

Ban on gay conversion therapy

Minimum wage above federal $7.25

Free college for at least 2 years

Use popular vote instead of electoral college for presidential elections

Marijuana legalized or decriminalized

who do republicans do with trifectas

Anti-boycott/disinvestment/sanctions of Israel

“Right to work”/no mandatory union dues

Medicaid work requirements

Allowed to carry a concealed weapon without a permit

Ban on sanctuary cities

where is nationalization coming from

1. voter spring (no liberal republicans or conservative democrats—polarization)

2. candidate sorting (no liberal republicans or conservative democrats as now all candidates have the same party ideals)

3. campaign finance (presidential campaigns have more money)

4. media nationalization and polarization (media gets more attention about country issues and the president)

Polarization

small differences within the party and large differences between parities

why did polarization increase

Electorate: voter sorting, southern realignment, gerrymandering, primary elections, economic inequality, money in politics, media

Politicians: congressional rules change, majority party tactics, party power, teamsmanship, norms

Polarization has grown because voters have become more ideologically sorted and politicians are incentivized to cater to their bases rather than compromise.

what was the southern realignment

Southern states became more republican

Southern democrats are replaced by southern republicans

State Party Switch (southern states used to be democrat)

Southern states didnt like the VRA 1965 so they started voting Republican

Most of the southern democrats were conservative democrats

how has the Republican Party become more competitive in congress

“insecure majorities”

Better to hold out to “get more next time” than compromise today

Tried to stop other members from being elected if they vote on Democrat’s bills and they dont vote for them so that they could say the democrat is ineffective, too liberal, and wouldn’t get elected.

who was newt Gingrich

Speaker of the House (1995-1999), responsible for 1994 “Republican Revolution” - a clear policy agenda that resonated with conservative voters and helped the Republicans win a House majority after decades of Democratic control.

Pioneered a combative strategy in the House minority in the 1980s and 1990s —which meant that even when outnumbered, Republicans adopted a combative, confrontational stance against the Democrats. This approach involved aggressive tactics to oppose and block Democratic initiatives, forcing debates to be framed in ideological and partisan terms. The result was a political environment where winning political battles became as important as governing, setting the stage for the heightened polarization seen in Congress today.

how is polarization effected by the president

when the president talks about an economic issue for example, the division increases between parties and when the president doesn’t, theres less of a division

How does mentioning the president in your speech increase nationalization and polarization

1. depends on party (Democrats don’t usually but Republicans do)

2. The Opposition Party References the President More Often (House)

3. If democrats reference Biden in speech, they will vote for the bill and Biden isn’t mentioned, they wouldn’t. Republicans wouldn’t vote for the bill regardless if he was mentioned for not

4. shifts focus from local news to national news

5. influence public opinion

6. more division is made

7. opposition parties benefit form mentioning the opposite president because it strengthens negative partisanship

what is democratic backsliding

slow erosion of democratic institutions, and leaders gain so much power that they can’t be removed through elections or normal democratic processes.

what causes democratic backsliding

1. partisan compeititon

   1. gerrymandering - drawing voting district boundaries in a way that benefits one political party over another. This is done by either packing or cracking.

2. polarization

   1. negative partisanship - you hate the other party so much more than you like your own

   2. secession - leaving the U.S. to form an independent government

3. the parties - parties are becoming less democrats

4. the public - the public will still vote for the president if they are in the same party and they did something anti-democratic and the other candidate didnt

what’s the solution to democratic backsliding

mutual tolerance and forbearance

what is mutual tolerance

Accepting political opponents as legitimate, even if you strongly disagree with them.

what is forbearance

Using political power responsibly instead of exploiting every legal loophole to weaken opponents.

what is packing and cracking

• Packing – Putting lots of voters from the opposing party into one district so they win fewer overall seats.

• Cracking – Spreading out voters from the opposing party across many districts so their votes are too weak to win.

what is negative partisanship

when people support their own party mainly to oppose the other party, rather than because they strongly agree with their own party’s ideas. It’s more about disliking the other side than liking your own.

what is secession

when a group, like a state or region, decides to leave or break away from a larger political entity, like a country or union, to form its own independent government.