Describe the evaluation step in Investment Projects
Estimating the project’s relevant cash flows and appropriate discount rate
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What type of investments fall under the evaluation step?
* Expected cash-flow stream * Discount rate
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Discount rate is also sometimes known as ____
Cost of capital
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Describe the selection step in investment projects
Choosing a decision making rule (accept / reject criteria)
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List the types of investments that fall under the selection step
* Net present value * Profitability index * Internal rate of return * Payback period
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Describe the implementation step in investment projects
Establishing an audit and a follow-up procedure
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List the types of investments that fall under the implementation step
* Monitor the magnitude and timing of cash flows * Check if the project still meets the selection criterion * Decide on a continuation or abandonment * Review previous steps if failure rate is high
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Money received in the future is _____ than money received today
less
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Define opportunity cost
Rate of return sacrificed on the next best alternative
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What is the formula for finding the future value FV of an investment of PV dollars today
FV = PV\*(1+r)^t
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What is the present value
The amount of money you would need to invest today in order to duplicate some future dollar amount
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What excel formula allows you to calculate the number of periods it will take for a future value to be achieved?
NPER
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What is the formula for calculating payments of an amount with an interest rate?
PMT
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What rule is usually used for forecasting the benefits and costs of an investment project?
Net Present Value (NPV)
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What is the formula for Net Present Value (NPV)?
NPV= C0 + C1/(1+r) +…+ Ct/(1+r)^t
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What condition needs qualifies a project to be accepted when using NPV?
If NPV > 0, the the project will increase shareholder value and should be accepted
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What is an independent project?
Acceptance or rejection is independent of the acceptance or rejection of other projects
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What is a mutually exclusive project?
Can accept “A” or you can accept “B” or you can reject both -- you cannot accept both
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What is the payback period?
The number of periods required for the sum of the project’s expected cash flows to equal its initial cash outlay
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What are some of the consequences of the payback period?
* Penalizes long-term projects * Difficult to know who decides the period * Ignores cashflows after the period
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What is the internal rate of return?
It is the discount rate that makes the net present value of the project equal zero
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What is the criteria for an acceptable project using the internal rate of return?
The IRR needs to be greater than the cost of capital
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What is the profitability index?
It is the present value of an investment’s future cash flows divided by its initial cost
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What is another name for the profitability index?
Benefit / cost ratio
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How do you calculate the profitability index?
(CF + NPV) / CF
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What is the criteria for accepting the profitability index?
There is more than one change of sign of the cashflows (positive to negative and negative to positive)
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What is the crossover rate?
NPVa = NPVb
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What two evaluation methods will generally give the same decision?
NPV and IRR
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Why would NPV and IRR not produce the same outcomes?
1. Non-conventional cashflows (flow signs change more than once) 2. Mutually exclusive projects
1. Initial investments are substantially different 2. Timing of cash flows is substantially different
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What is the most popular capital budgeting method?
IRR and NPV
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What is the difference between discounted and undiscounted payback periods?
Undiscounted means that the payments shown already are adjusted to incorporate the time value of money, whereas discounted means you need to make that adjustment
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If you want to determine the amount of capital expenditures a company made during the previous year, you should find the company’s most current ____ and look under the caption ________
cash flow statement; cash flow investments
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When combining investment IRR, the combined IRR will be _____ the two individual IRRs
between
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Conventional cash flows must be ______ for the NPV and IRR methods to be consistent in accept / reject decisions
independent
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What are the two principle for recording relevant cash flows:?
1. Record cash flows when the money actually moves 2. Cash flows that are different in both scenarios (accepting or rejecting an investment) are relevant to the decision, and those that are the same are irrelevant
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Define Sunk Costs
Something you’ve already spent -- not relevant for decision making
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Define test marketing costs
These are the marketing research expenses expended
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Define erosion costs
Taking away costs from an existing location -- Cash flow transferred to a new project from sales and customer of other products of the firm
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Define Opportunity Costs
Lost revenues from alternative uses of the asset
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What kind of an expense is depreciation?
Non-cash
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How do you calculate the after-tax cash flow (ATCF)?
Changes in the current assets that are the result of the investment decision -- this is relevant to the decisions
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What is working capital considered (directionally) at the start and end of a project?
Start: cash outflows
End: cash inflows
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What are the three groups to consider when making cash flow estimates?
* Price, volume * Variable costs * Fixed costs * Capital expenditure * Working capital
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What are the factors to consider with Price, Volume?
* Competition from existing products * Competition from technological advances * Values to customer
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What are the factors to consider with variable costs?
Labor, material, energy
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What are the factors to consider with fixed costs?
Marketing (sales, advertising), information technology, accounting management
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What are the factors to consider with capital expenditure?
Property, plant and equipment
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What are the factors to consider with working capital?
Inventory, accounts payable, accounts receivable
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What does the operating margin consist of?
Revenues (price, volume) and costs (variable and fixed)
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What does the operating cash flow consist of?
The operating margin and taxes
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What does the capital requirement consist of?
Capital expenditure, working capital (accounts receivable/payable, inventory)
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What does the free cash flow consist of?
Operating cash flow and capital requirement
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What does the cost of capital consist of?
Cost of debt and cost of equity
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What does the net present value (NPV) consist of?
Free cash flow and cost of capital
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The goal of the company is to ______ free cash flow and _______ cost of capital
maximize; minimize
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What is a nominal return?
The percentage change in the amount of money you have
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What is the real return?
The percentage change in the amount of stuff you actually buy
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What is the Fisher Effect?
1 + Nominal = (1+Real) \* (1+Inflation)
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Describe the two methods you can use to account inflation and estimation of cashflows
1. Express cash flows in real terms and discount them at the real interest rate 2. Convert real cash flows to nominal cash flows by allowing them to grow at rate of inflation and discount them at the nominal rate
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Cost of capital is expressed in ______ terms
Nominal
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Depreciation is expressed in ______ terms
Nominal
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When is it important to account for inflation/
When dealing with long horizons and high inflationary times
1. Identify each key variable and the probability distribution associated with it
1. Base case 2. Revenues 3. Growth 4. Operating Margin 5. Working Capital 2. Draw one outcome for each variable 3. Estimate PV and IRR 4. Repeat steps 2 and 3 many times (\~5000) 5. Use the distribution of NPV to answer the following questions:
1. What is the likelihood that this will be a bad project? 2. What is the worst case and best case scenarios? 3. Can you try to build linkages in the simulations?
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What is the most preferred technique for capital investment analysis?
Net Present Value (NPV)
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Capital budgeting must be done on an _____ basis
Incremental
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In regards to capital budgeting, what costs are ignored and what costs are considered?
Sunk costs are ignored; opportunity costs and side effects are considered