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Population of the world, US, and Ohio
World: 8.0 billion
US: 335 million
Ohio: ~12 million
Knox County: ~60,000
Projected world population next 50-100 years
2050: ~9.7 billion
2100: ~10.4 billion
Projected US population next 50-100 years
2050: ~390 million
2100: ~570 million
Agricultural Revolution
8000 BC (10,000 years ago!)
Large increase in food supply and opportunity for growth
Major changes in social structures
Limits to Growth
Thomas Malthus
An Essay on the Principle of Population
Over-Population is the root cause of poverty
Human population increases exponentially while food production remains rather constant
Humans inevitably starve into misery and crime
Society needs:
“Positive checks” — kills people with famine, disease
“Preventative checks” — prevent human birth: morality, late marriage, celibacy
Opposed efforts to give welfare
Social Justice
Karl Marx
Vehement crititc of Malthus
Poverty is the root cause of over-population
Technological Optimism
We Need People — Population Growth is Good
Argue that Malthus was wrong
Technology allows for the faster production of food
Tech as increasing human capacity
Based on availability of natural resources
R-adapted Species
Persist by depending on a high rate of reproduction and frequently overshoot carrying capacity
Exponential growth
J-curve
K-adapted Species
Reproduce more slowly as they approach carrying capacity
Logistic growth
S-Curve
Can still overshoot
Annual growth rate
Number of years until doubling
Annual growth rate as a percent (i.e. if 4% growth, divide by 4, not 0.04)
Total Fertility Rate
Number of children born to an average woman in a population during her reproductive life; 2.1 is associated with no pop growth
In developing countries, the growth rate is greater (5-8)
Niger - 6.82
Mali - 5.54
In developed countries, the growth rate is less (1-2)
US - 1.64
China - 1.70
Germany - 1.53