campaigns and voter behaviour

Rational Choice Theory

Humans act to maximize benefits and minimize costs; voting decision is a cost-benefit calculation.

Rational Ignorance

People choose not to be informed about politics because the cost of learning exceeds the benefit of a single vote.

Turnout Inequality

The difference in voting participation among different demographic groups, where older, wealthier, and educated individuals are more likely to vote.

Partisan Identity

A strong identification with a political party, influencing voter behavior more than specific policies or ideology.

Affective Polarization

Emotional responses where individuals favor their in-group (political allies) and dislike out-groups (political opponents).

Voting Norm

The feeling of a civic duty to participate in elections, which motivates people to vote even when it may seem irrational.

Functions of Campaigns

Campaigns may persuade voters, prime issues, inform the public, and mobilize citizens to vote.

Electoral System Effects

Campaign strategies are influenced by whether the electoral system is majoritarian (winner-take-all) or proportional, changing the focus of candidates.

Identity vs. Issues in Voting

Voter decisions are driven more by identity and belonging than by specific policies or issues.

Campaign Influence

While campaigns can influence voter behavior, partisanship is often a more significant factor in electoral outcomes.

Rational choice theory

Maximizing benefits and minimizing costs in decision making

Is voting rational?

Depends on time, effort, and benefits of voting

Rational ignorance

Choosing to remain uninformed because one vote has little impact

Why is rational ignorance rational?

Cost of information is higher than benefit of one vote

When does voting become more rational?

When elections are very close

Why do people vote?

Preferences and sense of duty

Sense of duty

Norm that voting is a civic responsibility

Who is more likely to vote?

Older, educated, wealthy, stable individuals

Who is less likely to vote?

Younger, less educated, poorer, less stable individuals

Turnout inequality

Certain groups vote more than others

Politics definition

Decision-making affecting entire society

Trust problem in politics

People distrust decisions made by out-groups

Ideology

Stable and coherent set of beliefs and values

How many people have ideology?

About 20–30%

Key driver of vote choice

Partisan identity

Partisan identity

Psychological attachment to a political party

How is partisan identity formed?

Through socialization like family

Strong partisans behaviour

Biased, active, emotional about party

Affective polarization

Emotional division between political groups

Effect of polarization

Influences behaviour beyond politics

Cross-pressures

Conflicting identities reduce party attachment

Social sorting

Identities align with political parties

Campaign definition

Period where candidates try to win votes

Campaign activities

Advertising, outreach, events, debates

Persuasion

Changing voter opinions

Priming

Shaping what issues voters focus on

Informing

Providing information to voters

Mobilizing

Encouraging people to vote

Electoral system effect

Rules shape campaign strategies

Majoritarian system

Winner-take-all system

Proportional representation

Seats reflect vote share

Do campaigns matter?

Sometimes, depending on context

Main conclusion

Partisan identity matters more than ideology

Campaigns vs identity

Campaigns influence but identity dominates voting

Expected utility maximization

Core idea of rational choice theory where individuals maximize benefits and minimize costs

Cost-benefit calculation in voting

Evaluating time, effort, and benefits before deciding to vote

Why voting is irrational in strict sense

One vote has extremely low probability of changing outcome

Downs rational ignorance argument

People remain uninformed because it is logically not worth the effort

What changes voting calculus

Closeness of election increases value of one vote

Normative voting

Voting because it is seen as a civic duty rather than personal gain

Self-interest voting

Voting based on personal benefit or preferences

In-group vs out-group

People trust and support their own group while distrusting others

Why trust is limited in politics

Disagreement on policies and information leads to suspicion

Ideology vs identity

Most voters rely on identity rather than consistent ideological beliefs

Identity not issues

Voting driven more by belonging than policy positions

Partisanship as identity

Party attachment functions like a social identity

Effect of strong partisanship

Increased bias, activism, and emotional reactions

Affective polarization definition

Emotional dislike of opposing political group

Real world effect of polarization

Shapes behaviour even outside politics (e.g. relationships)

Cross-pressured voters

Individuals with conflicting identities leading to weaker party loyalty

Effect of cross-pressures

Less consistent voting behaviour and weaker attachment

Social sorting definition

Alignment of political parties with social identities

Result of social sorting

Increased polarization and division

Campaign period definition

Time when election rules apply and candidates compete for votes

Purpose of campaigns

Win elections by influencing voters

Campaign persuasion

Attempts to change voter preferences

Campaign priming

Influencing which issues voters consider important

Campaign informing

Providing voters with information about candidates and issues

Campaign mobilizing

Encouraging supporters to actually vote

Why mobilization matters

Supporters must turn out for votes to count

Electoral system impact

Rules shape how parties campaign and target voters

Majoritarian strategy

Focus on winning key districts or ridings

Proportional strategy

Broader appeal to gain overall vote share

Do campaigns matter US

Often limited impact in US presidential elections

Do campaigns matter other elections

Greater impact in less stable or closer elections

Final exam concept

Campaigns matter sometimes but identity is strongest driver

Comparison campaigns vs identity

Identity shapes long-term voting while campaigns have short-term effects

Why ideology is weak

Few people hold consistent and structured political beliefs

Political behaviour reality

Voting is influenced by identity, emotion, and norms more than logic

Turnout vs vote choice

Turnout explains who votes, vote choice explains who they vote for