campaigns and voter behaviour

📘 MASTER NOTES

CAMPAIGNS & VOTER BEHAVIOUR (STRICTLY YOUR LECTURE)

🧠 BIG QUESTIONS (STRUCTURE OF CHAPTER)

• Why do people vote?

• Why do people vote for certain candidates?

• Do campaigns change either of these?

👉 Everything connects back to these 3

🗳 PART 1: WHY DO PEOPLE VOTE

⚖ RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY (CORE FOUNDATION)

• Humans act to:

  • Maximize benefits

  • Minimize costs

👉 Voting decision = cost-benefit calculation

❓ IS VOTING RATIONAL?

People ask:

• How much time/effort will voting take?

• What benefit do I get from voting?

👉 PROBLEM:

• One vote ≈ almost zero impact

🧠 RATIONAL IGNORANCE (VERY IMPORTANT)

• People choose not to be informed

• Because:

  • Cost of learning politics > benefit of 1 vote

👉 NOT laziness
👉 It is actually rational behaviour

⚠ WHEN DOES VOTING MATTER MORE?

• When election is very close

• Then:

  • Your vote could matter

👉 This changes the “calculus”

📊 WHY DO PEOPLE STILL VOTE?

Even if irrational:

• They have preferences (self-interest + knowledge)

• They feel a duty to vote (norm)

👥 WHO VOTES VS WHO DOESN’T

More likely to vote:

• Older

• More educated

• Wealthier

• Stable (homeowners)

Less likely:

• Younger

• Less educated

• Poorer

• Less stable (renters)

👉 THIS = turnout inequality

🧠 PART 2: VOTE CHOICE

⚖ TRUST & POLITICS

• Politics = decisions affecting entire society

• People disagree:

  • On policies

  • On facts/information

👉 Leads to:

• Distrust

• In-group vs out-group thinking

🧠 IDEOLOGY (IMPORTANT BUT LIMITED)

• Only 20–30% have real ideology

• Meaning:

  • Stable, consistent beliefs

👉 MOST people do NOT think ideologically

🔥 KEY IDEA: IDENTITY > ISSUES

👉 THIS IS HUGE FOR EXAM

• Voting is driven more by:

  • Identity

  • Belonging

NOT:

• Policy details

🟦 PARTISAN IDENTITY (MOST IMPORTANT DRIVER)

• People identify with a party (like identity)

• Learned through:

  • Family

  • Socialization

👉 Strong partisans:

• Biased toward their party

• More politically active

• React emotionally to criticism

⚠ AFFECTIVE POLARIZATION

• People:

  • Like their group (in-group)

  • Dislike other group (out-group)

👉 Politics becomes emotional, not rational

• May affect:

  • Relationships

  • Dating

  • Daily life

⚖ CROSS-PRESSURES

• People belong to multiple identities

Example:

• Religious + working class + immigrant

👉 If identities conflict:

• Less strong party attachment

• More uncertainty

🔀 SOCIAL SORTING

• Identities now align with parties

Example:

Republicans:

• White

• Rural

• Christian

• Conservative

Democrats:

• Diverse

• Urban

• Secular

• Liberal

👉 Leads to:

• Strong polarization

📣 PART 3: CAMPAIGNS

📌 WHAT IS A CAMPAIGN?

• Period when:

  • Election date is known

  • Candidates are known

  • Actors try to win votes

  • Activities are regulated

🛠 CAMPAIGN ACTIVITIES

• Advertising

• Voter outreach

• Public events

• Debates

🎯 FUNCTIONS OF CAMPAIGNS (MUST MEMORIZE)

• Persuasion → change opinions

• Priming → shape what issues matter

• Informing → give information

• Mobilizing → get people to vote

⚙ ELECTORAL SYSTEM EFFECT

• Rules shape behaviour

Majoritarian (winner-take-all):

• Focus on winning districts

Proportional:

• Broader appeal

👉 Strategy changes based on system

❓ DO CAMPAIGNS MATTER?

• In US presidential elections:

  • Often not much

• In other elections:

  • Sometimes they matter

🧠 FINAL KEY IDEA (MOST IMPORTANT LINE)

👉 Campaigns matter sometimes
👉 But partisan identity matters more than ideology

🔥 WHAT YOU NEED FOR 100%

Memorize these connections:

• Voting ≠ fully rational → rational ignorance

• People vote due to:

  • Duty

  • Identity

• Vote choice driven by:

  • Partisan identity > ideology

• Polarization = emotional + identity-based

• Campaigns:

  • Inform, persuade, mobilize

  • BUT don’t fully change outcomes