Introduction to Political Analysis -- Funds Exam

empirical analysis

based on real world observations

normative analysis

how the world ought to be

literature review

recognition of research that has already been done to see if your research will extend or challenge current research

concepts of interest

abstract ideas, theorized to be in a causal relationship in nature

causal theories

valid or invalid correlations

causal logic/causal mechanisms

credible mechanisms through which an independent variable can drive changes in a dependent variable

causality

the independent variable directly affects the dependent variable

correlation

a statistical measure of covariation which summarizes the direction (positive or negative) and strength of the linear relationship between two variables

deterministic relationships

if some cause occurs, then the effect will occur with certainty

probabilistic relationships

increases in X are associated with increases (or decreases) in the probability of Y occurring, but those probabilities are not certainties

direction of causality

positive, negative, bidirectional

positive covariation

higher values of the independent variable tend to coincide with higher values of the dependent variable

negative/inverse covariation

higher values of the independent variable tend to coincide with lower values of the dependent variable

spurious covariation

no correlation

operationalization

Another word for measurement; when a variable moves from the concept level in a theory to the real-world measure for a hypothesis test

research design

the strategies that a researcher employs to make comparisons with the goal of evaluating causal claims

independent variable

a variable that is theorized to cause variable in the dependent variable

dependent variable

a variable for which at least some of the variation is theorized to be caused by one or more independent variables

measures of the variables

ways of measuring or quantifying the variables

empirical evidence/data

a collection of variable values for at least two observations (based on real world observations)

hypothesis

a theory-based statement about what we would expect to observe if our theory is correct. An explicit statement of a theory in terms of the expected relationship between a measure of the independent variable and a measure of the dependent variable.

hypothesis testing

the act of evaluating empirical evidence in order to determine the level of support for the hypothesis versus the null hypothesis

validation of a causal theory ("proving")

in support of our theory

invalidation of a causal theory ("disproving")

contradicts our theory

model

the combination of independent variables, the dependent variable, and the causal relationships that are theorized to exist between them

generality

are our sample findings and results applicable outside of the sample used?

parsimony

the most powerful theories are simple (only need a little bit of information to prove a lot)

sensitivity

can our findings adapt with our data and changes within our data

appropriateness

are we measuring what we are intending to measure

feasibility

can we gather the data that we want

bias

a statistical problem that occurs when the expected value of the parameter estimate that we obtain from a sample will not be equal to the true population parameter (over/underestimation)

measurement error

misunderstandings when gathering data (wrongful interpretations of questions, not enough people, etc. -- can be random or nonrandom)

random measurement error

incorrect or inconsistent data due to systematic errors (misunderstanding of questions or falsification of response answers)

nonrandom measurement error

over/under reporting or assuming a correlation exists between variables when there could be other variables contributing to results.

uncertainty

a degree of unknown information that is attempted to understand through observations of a sample

experimentation

research designs in which the researcher both controls and randomly assigns values of the independent variable to the participants

cross-sectional studies

a measure for which the time dimension is the same for all cases and the cases represent multiple spatial units

time-series studies

a measure for which the spatial dimensions is the same for all cases and the cases represent multiple time units

measures of central tendency

typical values for a particular variable at the center of its distribution (mean, median, mode)

mean

the arithmetical average of a variable equal to the sum of all values of Y across individual cases of Y, Yi, divided by the total number of cases

median

the value of the case that sits at the exact center of our cases when we rank the values of a single variable from the smallest to the largest observed values

mode

the most frequently occurring value of a variable

normal distribution

a bell-shaped statistical distribution that can be entirely characterized by its mean and standard deviation

confidence interval

a probabilistic statement about the likely value of a population characteristic based on the observations in a sample

skewed distribution

different values of mean, median, and mode which cause a variation in the distribution that is different than the normal bell curve distribution (can be due to an outlier or simply uneven distribution of data)

frequency distribution

a distribution of actual scores in a sample

two-variable linear regression

best fitted line to fit and represent our data

ordinary least squares (OLS)

(the most popular method for computing sample regression models) a technique for estimating the parameters of a regression model

variance (variation)

a statistical measure of the dispersion of a variable around its mean (the distribution of values that a variable takes across the cases for which it is measured)

the concept of "flow"

deep focus achieved by having a meaningful, challenging task with a purpose and clearly defined goal

the effects of increased switching and filtering on "flow"

screw up effect and the switch cause effect

switch cause effect

loss of time as you try to refocus

screw up effect

due to the error proneness of our brains, as we switch topics more, we are more likely to make mistakes

switching

your brain jumping from thinking tasks repetitively