Chapter 9: Weather Forecasting

"Describe the role of the World Meteorological Organization."

"The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations that provides leadership and expertise in international cooperation in meteorology, climatology, hydrology, and related fields."

"Define the term 'advisory' in the context of hazardous weather."

"An advisory indicates less hazardous conditions, suggesting that while there may be some weather-related issues, they are not severe."

"How does a 'watch' differ from a 'warning' in weather forecasting?"

"A 'watch' indicates that conditions are favorable for hazardous weather to develop, while a 'warning' means that hazardous weather is imminent or currently occurring."

"What are some tools used in weather forecasting?"

"Weather forecasting tools include high-speed data modeling systems (AWIPS), Doppler radar, meteograms, soundings, satellites, and various forecast models."

"Explain the significance of Doppler radar in weather forecasting."

"Doppler radar is significant in weather forecasting as it helps detect precipitation, its intensity, and movement, allowing meteorologists to track storms and severe weather."

"Describe the process of numerical weather prediction."

"Numerical weather prediction involves entering observational data into computers, which then use mathematical models to simulate and predict atmospheric conditions."

"What is a prognostic chart?"

"A prognostic chart is a final forecast chart that represents the atmosphere at a specified future time, used to visualize expected weather conditions."

"Identify some common problems faced in weather forecasting."

"Common problems in weather forecasting include inherent flaws in computer models, limitations in global coverage, inability to model small-scale features, and challenges in interpreting all atmospheric interactions."

"How do ensemble forecasts improve weather predictions?"

"Ensemble forecasts improve predictions by running several forecast models or different versions of a single model, each starting with slightly different weather information to account for measurement errors."

"What is the persistence forecast technique?"

"The persistence forecast technique assumes that future weather will be the same as the present weather, relying on the stability of current conditions."

"Explain the steady-state or trend forecast method."

"The steady-state or trend forecast method predicts that a weather system will move in the same direction at approximately the same speed as it currently is."

"What is the purpose of soundings in weather forecasting?"

"Soundings provide a vertical profile of the atmosphere, which is used for short-range forecasts covering relatively small areas."

"Describe the role of satellites in weather observation."

"Satellites play a crucial role in weather observation by providing real-time data on cloud cover, temperature, and other atmospheric conditions from space."

"What was the method of weather chart plotting before the mid-1950s?"

"Before the mid-1950s, weather charts were plotted by hand, relying on meteorologists' interpretation of weather system rules."

"How do atmospheric models contribute to weather forecasting?"

"Atmospheric models describe the present state of the atmosphere and help meteorologists predict future weather conditions based on current data."

"What is the final chart called after meteorologists interpret and correct errors in weather data?"

"The final chart, after interpretation and error correction, is called an analysis."

"Define the analogue method in weather forecasting."

"The analogue method involves comparing current weather patterns to historical data to predict future weather based on similar past events."

"Describe the types of weather forecasts based on time frames."

"Forecasts can be categorized as Now cast (under six hours), Short-range (six hours to a few days), Medium range (three to eight days), Long-range (beyond eight days), and Outlooks (summary of trends)."

"Define a climatological forecast."

"A climatological forecast is based on the climate of a specific region."

"How does the accuracy of weather forecasts change with time frames?"

"Shorter future time frame forecasts are generally more reliable, while the skill of forecasts decreases as the range of the forecast period increases due to chaos."

"What is the significance of statistical forecasts in weather prediction?"

"Statistical forecasts rely on the past performance of computer models to predict future weather conditions."

"Explain the role of numerical modeling in making the best weather forecasts."

"The best forecasts incorporate multiple layers of the atmosphere using numerical modeling to enhance accuracy."

"How do mid-latitude cyclones move according to weather prediction?"

"Mid-latitude cyclones move in the same direction and speed as they did in the previous six hours."

"What factors influence the movement of low-pressure areas?"

"Low-pressure areas move in a direction parallel to the isobars in warm air ahead of a cold front and tend to move toward the area of greatest surface pressure drop."

"Describe the prediction signs compiled by Theophratus."

"Theophratus compiled weather indicators such as colors and shapes of clouds, fly bite intensity, and moon halo."

"What is the relationship between surface pressure systems and wind direction?"

"Surface pressure systems tend to move in the same direction as the wind and at about half the speed."

"How does skill in weather forecasting compare to persistence or climatology?"

"Skill refers to forecasts that are more accurate than those utilizing only persistence or climatology."

"What is the typical time frame for a Now cast weather forecast?"

"A Now cast weather forecast typically covers a time frame of under six hours."

"How does the intensity of fly bites relate to weather prediction?"

"Fly bite intensity is one of the indicators used in traditional weather prediction signs."

"What is the purpose of an outlook in weather forecasting?"

"An outlook serves as a summary of trends in weather patterns."

"How do highs and lows behave in terms of pressure systems?"

"Lows tend to move toward areas of greatest surface pressure drop, while highs move toward areas of greatest pressure increase."

"Describe the factors that contribute to a valid weather forecast."

"A valid weather forecast is influenced by satellite data, upper level assistance, and computer-generated models."

"How does the 500 mb chart assist in weather forecasting?"

"The 500 mb chart helps meteorologists analyze atmospheric conditions at mid-levels, which can indicate weather patterns and changes."

"What role does computer assistance play in weather forecasting?"

"Computer assistance provides simulations and models that help predict weather conditions based on current data."

"Define the significance of satellite data in weather predictions."

"Satellite data offers real-time images and information about cloud cover, temperature, and moisture, which are crucial for accurate weather predictions."

"What can be expected during a day of rain and winds?"

"A day of rain and winds typically involves precipitation, strong gusts, and potentially cooler temperatures."

"How might weather conditions change compared to today?"

"Weather conditions may change markedly due to various factors such as atmospheric pressure shifts, temperature changes, and moisture levels."