Long term voting factors

Traditionally what social classes vote for the conservatives

A,B,C1

Traditionally what social classes vote for the Labour party

C2,D,E

When parties policy become similar what plays a larger role than class

Valence

What age demographic tends to vote for the conservatives?

65+

Why does having a typically older voter base benefit the conservatives

They are a larger proportion of the population and have a high turnout percentage

At the 2019 election what was the turnout for voters over the age of 65

74%

At the 2019 election what was the turnout for voters aged 18-24

47%

In 2024 what % of the English population are over 65

18%

When do both parties tend to do better in elections

When they reach outside their “core age”

What is an example of Labour reaching outside their “core age”

Blair having a 5% lead over the conservatives amongst the over 65 voters in the 1997 election

What is an example of Conservative reaching outside their “core age”

Thatcher having a 1% lead over Labour in the 18-24 age group in the 1979 election

In 2019 what % of over 65 voted conservative

64%

What are the Traditional Heartlands for the Labour party

Northern England, Wales and parts of Scotland

What are the Traditional Heartlands for the Conservative party

The south east and rural towns

Why do Conservatives do so well in the South east

It’s the UK’s most prosperous region and it’s wealth appeals to Tory policy

In 2017 what % of voters in the North west voted for Labour

55%

What constituency did Blair famously win in 1997 election and what did this show

Enfield Southgate, it showed how Labour could appeal to middle class, south eastern areas.

Why was Enfield Southgate important in the 1997 election

It created the “Portillo” moment which was when the MP Portillo lost his seat but was a favourite to run as leader

What constituency did May famously win in 1997 election and what was Bolsover traditionally part of

Bolsover, It was traditionally part of the Red wall and was meant to be a guaranteed seat for Labour

Why was Bolsover an important part of the red wall

The MP Dennis Skinner was a long standing labour MP and associated with “old Labour” this showed the true decline of the Labour.

Between 2010 and 2019 how much did Conservatives increase their support in the North east

18.8%

Why was the 2017 general election strange for the Labour party

Corbyn gained further support with AB voters

Why was the 2017 general election strange for the Conservative party

May made gains amongst DE voters

Why does the 2017 election undermine the idea of class voting

The change in voting happened because of Brexit. This is because AB voters were pro-Europe whereas DE voters were Euro-sceptics and many believed that the Tories would reach a better Brexit deal and control immigration

Since 2017 what party has gained support from less educated voters

Conservatives

In the 2019 election what % of people who’s highest level of education was GCSE, did the conservatives win

58%

In 2019 what % of voters with a degree voted labour

43%

What party do ethnic minorities often vote for

Labour

In 2017 out of the 75 most diverse constituencies, how many were conservative

5

What constituency has a large asian community but has been conservative since 2010

Harrow east

What party has traditionally held a firm hold over female voters

Conservatives

What party are younger women more likely to vote for

Labour

In 2019 what % of women aged 18-24 voted for Labour

64%