other factors in voting behaviour

turnout

why does turnout vary between elections

• In the February 1974 general election, turnout was 79% and the election was so close it resulted in a hung parliament. It was 74% in 1992, which was a narrow win for the Conservatives. The 2010 and 2015 the results were close and there was some recovery of turnout figures.  

• The 2001, 2005 and 2024 general elections were foregone conclusions – Labour victory - so turnout slumped. The outcome of the 1997 election was predicted months before the election and there was a drop in turnout from 74% to 59%. 

• Turnout is often far higher in marginal seats supporting the thesis that a close race encourages people to turn out.

age and turnout

• Young people usually don't vote. Turnout is very low for them compared to that of the older age groups

• turnout usually high amongst older people

• Large surge of young voters in 2017 GE. Could've contributed to labour getting more votes even though they didn’t win. Could've caused conservative minority gov

why do young people have low turnout

1. There is widespread disillusionment with conventional politics amongst the young. Politicians have introduced policies which discriminate against this age group, for example university tuition fees.  It could also be evidence of apathy, a belief that voting will make no difference to the young. 

2. The young participate in politics in different ways, using petitions, direct action and social media campaigns, thus moving away from conventional politics.  

3. Younger people are more interested in single issues rather than broad political ideologies. This means there is less interest in political parties but increased participation in pressure group activities. 

4. Many young people feel the need to abstain in order to protest. Perhaps to show that no party reflects their views or that they are dissatisfied with the whole political system, that it is insensitive at best and corrupt at worst. 

why is turnout lower in local elections

• Local elections have much lower turnout than national ones

• View that local representatives have little power so there isnt much point.

• Furthermore local voting behaviour is often determined by national issues rather than local ones

• May change as devolved administrations gain more powers and city mayors become more established.

• First Mayor of london election in 2000, was 34% but in 2016 it was 45%

1979 GE

• 76% turnout  

• 18-25 - 70.1%

• 25-35  - 81.2%

• 35-45 - 88.5%

• 45-55 - 91%

• 55-65 - 91.3%

• 65+ - 87.1%

 

Turnout was a little down compared to past trends, largely due to abstentions by the working class and TU members, who were labours voters

However it help up well and wasn't a significant factor in the result

Opinion polls may have played a role in boosting Tory turnout as they showed an increasingly close race

 

1997 GE

71.3% turnout 

In this election there were signs of a long term decline in turnout

Turnout was 71% but this was much lower than typical levels in the past

valence

ways to judge valence

• economic competence

  • labour lost support after 2008 financial crash

• unity

  • Disunity was a problem for Labour when Corbyn became leader in 2015 but by 2017 Corbyn’s image had improved and he had taken measures to improve unity (or the illusion of unity) in the Labour Party. In 2019 Labour was not united over Brexit and this was very damaging.

• leadership

  • Nick Clegg viewed positively in 2010, Ed Miliband seen as weak in 2015

1979 GE

• A key issue in 1979 election was the power of TUs

• In the winter of 1978-79 there had been a wave of strikes by public-sector workers, leading to bins being left unemptied, power shortages and public transport disrupted. Became known as 'winter of discontent'

• A key issue was - which party was best placed to control TU power? The answer for many was the Conservative Party

 

• UK economy was also in a bad state. There was high inflation, growing unemployment

• The Tory response was to plan a return to free markers and to curb TU power

• Middle classes were attracted to these policies

1997 GE

• Image of Tory party that was in power for 18 years, was a tired one, but the party was also disunited

• Had presided over a deep economic recession in the early 1990s so competence was an issue

• By contrast labour had to economic record to defend and appeared to be a younger fresher party united around a definable set of policies - Third way (new labour) 

• Main issue for the Tories was that the public remembered the recession of the late 1980s to early 1990s and blamed them for it

• Was a general sense that the conservative mismanaged the economy

2019 GE

• This election was dominated by Brexit and is a rare example of how a single issue overcame longstanding primary factors such as class, regional and partisan tribal loyalties of leave labour voters

• Boris Johnson managed to unite the party over a commitment to Brexit in the 2019, contrasting to the Labour Party's divisions

• The parliamentary deadlock over previous months which had made it impossible to put through Theresa May's Brexit deal 3 times and then Johnsons once. Therefore making Johnsons Mantra to 'Get Brexit Done' was very appealing

• The Labour party's position on Brexit and the idea of a second referendum wasn't very appealing. They were blamed for deliberately delaying Brexit through parliamentary tactics. Also antisemitism stained the party's image and reputation after the realise of a damming panorama documentary

2024 GE

• Tory party had been in government for 14 years and had 3 PM's within 5 years

• Tory party had been doing bad, people tired of the party

  • Liz Truss' time as PM

  • Failure of Rwanda Bill

• Pushed people to vote labour who won by a huge 172 majority

manifesto/mandate

pros of mandate

• Electors can read the manifesto and feel confident they understand which policies they are voting for.

• The winning government therefore gains legitimacy for its policies.

• Parliament or devolved assemblies or the media can hold the government to account for its policies - they can justify a challenge to the government.

• Electors can judge the performance of a government against its manifesto promises.

• The winning party are 'bound in' by the manifesto. They can use it to maintain party discipline. They should not implement policies which contradict the manifesto

cons of mandate

• It only works if one party wins a  majority. In 2010 there was a Conservative Lib Dem coalition and the coalition agreement was a compromise between two parties' manifestos. If there is a minority government (as in 2017), it cannot claim a clear mandate.

• Voters do not necessarily agree with all of the manifesto commitments of the party they voted for. The doctrine of the mandate assumes consent for the whole manifesto.

• Circumstances may change when the government takes power and policies might have to be abandoned or amended.

• Some manifestos can be vague and open to interpretation, making it difficult to hold a government to account.

1979 GE

• Most important policies were Tory pledges to curb the power of Tus and proposals for economic reforms

• Other policies like the right-to-buy scheme were popular, but of secondary importance to the policies that tapped into the mood for change following the winter of discontent  

1997 GE

• The conservatives tried to focus policies on economic recovery, but the issue of Europe dominated and divided the party, especially with the presence of the referendum party

• Labour focused on 5 specific pledges:

  • To cut class sizes in schools

  • Introduce fast track punishment for young offenders

  • Cut NHS waiting lists

  • Get 250k unemployed <25s into work

  • Cut VAT on heating

  • Not raise income tax

• All focused on presenting the new labour third way 

2024 GE

• The election was probably more decided on the government's record rather than specific policy.

• Labour policy was extremely similar to Conservative policy, with Labour spending less than the Conservatives in their manifesto pledges, and both of them promising not to raise income tax, NI and corporation tax on working people.

• Some policy between Labour and Conservatives were different, such as the Conservatives' National Service policy and Labour's Votes at 16.

• Minor parties had more varied manifestos. The Greens particularly honed in on a wealth tax and scrapping university tuition fees aimed to target pro-Corbyn voters on the left. Reform aimed to appeal to the right of the Conservatives with their policy naturally.

• Some independent MPs were also elected solely on Labour's policy regarding Israel and Palestine.

leadership

is leadership important in voting behaviour - YES

• Public perceptions of party leaders are important in determining who to vote for.  People are choosing a prime minister as well as a ruling party and a local MP.

• In 2015 the public perception of David Cameron was more positive than Ed Miliband.

• In 1997 and 2001, Tony Blair maintained high approval ratings and managed to keep his landslide, however following them lowering after the Iraq War, his majority decreased in 2005.

is leadership important in voting behaviour - NO

• In the 1979 election, James Callaghan led his Conservative opponent Margaret Thatcher by 20% in the opinion polls but lost the election.

• In 2010, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg was the most popular leader after the TV debates, but his party’s share of the vote fell by 1% and they lost 5 parliamentary seats.

• 2024 GE Keir Starmer had -17% net favourability but still won

1979 GE

• James Callaghan, labour PM before the election, had a more favourable image than Margaret Thatcher. He was seen as reliable and likeable whereas Thatcher was seen as distant and posh

• Thatcher had also been an unpopular education secretary in the early 1970s

• Some members of the electorate may have been reluctant to vote for a female PM

• Nevertheless, the Tories won, perhaps in spite of, rather than because of, their leader

1997 GE

• There was a large contrast between the two main party leaders

• Tory leader John Major appeared to be grey, unexciting and weak, whereas Tony Blair was clearly in command, and was young and attractive, w a clear vision  

• The LibDem leader Paddy Ashdown also had a positive imaged, reflected in a good election for his party

  • LibDem had 46 seats, 28 more than before

 

2017 GE

• Thatcher extremely unpopular, led to her forming minority gov and relying on DUP

2024 GE

• Boris Johnson becoming unpopular due to party gate and several backbench rebellions/cabinet resignations under him  

media

impact of broadcast media

• Broadcast media covers all TV stations like the BBC, ITV etc

• All broadcasters in the UK are bound by law to remain neutral and give a balanced reporting of election and referendum campaigns. This means they have no intentional influence on voting behaviour

• Although the BBC has sometimes been accused of a liberal or left-wing bias, nothing has been proven

• Broadcast media remain the main source of information for voters in UK election campaigns

• Televised debates have now become a common feature of elections

  • The BBC, ITV, Sky and Channel 4 have all held leaders' debates in recent elections under strict conditions, overseen by the electoral commission

  • It's not at all clear that these debates have any significant impact on the voters. We have already seen that Nick Clegg's good performance in the 2010 debates didn’t prevent a decline in the LibDem share of the popular vote

  • In 2019 the leaders' debates did no more than confirm voters' existing impressions of the main candidates, reinforcing voting intentions

• All we can really confirm about broadcasting is that the parties use TV and radio as a way of getting their messages across, but they don’t gain any special advantage from it

• Broadcast media has more impact on older generation

impact of press

• The press mainly refers to newspapers

• Following the 1992 GE, when the conservatives won a surprise victory after a predicted labour win, the Sun newspaper proclaimed 'it's the sun wot won it'

  • The sun had run a campaign against the labour party and its leader Neil Kinnock

  • the opinion polls initially predicted a labour win but they turned around near the election date and conservatives won

• Unlike TV and radio, there is no press regulation in terms of political bias and UK newspapers are highly politicised, influenced by ownership of the individual papers

• Most newspapers support the Tory party, and the two largest tabloids, the Sun and Daily Mail are both strong Tory supporters

• At first sight, it can be concluded that newspapers do influence voting behaviour. But this could be an illusion

  • Newspapers tend to reflect the typical political views of their readers, rather than leading them

  • In 2012 the Sun's owner Rupert Murdoch admitted that newspapers don’t sing votes but reflect opinion

    • Seen with 2017 Jeremy Corbyn's labour receiving 40% of the national vote despite only have one newspaper (the Mirror) supporting it

impact of social media

• Social media is how younger voters participate in politics, and the fact that parties spend so much on campaigns on Facebook and other platforms shows that parties think social media is influential

• Difficult for parties to gain any special advantage, although there's an argument that those with access to large resources can use online ads and tools like social media bots to influence the outcome

• The web is unregulated so it's possible for any group to gain some political traction

  • Especially useful to small parties like Green or Reform, which don’t have resources, in terms of membership and national organisation, to be able to compete with the large parties in conventional campaigning

has the role of the media changed

• Traditionally: It reported accurately, educated the public and provided commentary and a forum for debate
  

• Now: Due to the rise of the internet, it has become increasingly partisan and cynical, focuses on personality "celebrity politicians" and is more opinion orientated, additionally people tend to be more aware but less engaged

1979 GE

• Media reporting on the events of the Falklands War boosted Thatcher's image and supported her title of 'Iron Lady' --> helping swing votes towards conservative  

• The sun reported Callaghan said Crisis? What crisis?" despite him never saying this. Voters turned against Callaghan. He dropped roughly 6 points in the polls in the following weeks 

   

1997 GE

• Reports on the 'sleaze' in the tory party increased support for Tony Blair. Voters weren't fond on tory party so this helped increase votes for labour  

• Blair became friends with Rupert Murdoch who owns major newspapers

• The sun switched support from Tory to Labour but this had little impact as polls showed that Labour was on course for a large victory 

2024 GE

impact on conservatives

• the tory party entered the 2024 GE w a robust social media strategy, supported by a considerable budget for high quality content creation. Their tactics included:

  • High quality production, releasing campaign videos that showcased key policies and candidate profiles, enhancing their professional image

  • Employed data analytics to deliver tailored advertisements to voters in swing districts

Despite these advantages, the conservatives struggled to convince voters that as the government that had preceded over the cost of living crisis, the immigration crisis and the NHS backlog they were the party to remedy these problems

 

Impact on labour
 

Streamed rallies and community events on platforms like Facebook and X, fostering real time engagement w potential voters.

By combining professionally produced videos with spontaneous clips captured on smartphones, they appealed to a broad audience

 

However labour faced challenges such as:

• Message inconsistency, confusion arose over key policies, like their stance on Corporation tax