The Future, Human Population And Management (Unger)

what is a quote suggesting the magnitude of the problem?

"It is likely that coral reefs will be the first major ecosystem in the modern era to become ecologically [functionally] extinct."

how much out of the 845 reef building corals are in critical danger of extinction?

1/3

how long ago were the first warnings?

130 years

when have the widespread declines threatened the entire system

the last two decades

what happened in 1998 that led to the decline of 1/3 of major reef builders in caribbean

massive warming trend

it is not a steady downward trend rather...

a decline by pulses

if nothing changes...

-Few reefs will survive more or less unchanged, all are being affected.

-Most will only survive as grossly distorted and stressed relics of their former grandeur

-A large proportion will not even be recognizable as a reef.

If corals are hit by a major mortality/warming event more often than every 5 years, what will they face?

critical extinction event

At current rates, it is estimated that all corals globally will reach a critical extinction rate no later than when?

2080

For the Caribbean (including Bonaire), this critical point will hit starting when?

2020s and continue through 2050

what is the reason for hope?

-Many deeper water corals are NOT suffering the same intensity of damage!

-Very large bodies of water may not have the same amount of warming events as predicted.

-The earth's climate may react to the warming by episodic cooling events (greater winds, greater cloud cover, less evaporation, less heat).

can corals adapt to climate change?

no, but some have proven capable. its a matter of what they are used to

open ocean corals that die in 30 C water are known to exist where?

much warmer bays and lagoons

what zooxanthellae is highly temp resistant?

clade D

are corals animals

yes

what direction are corals moving?

north

what is the problem/ elephant in the room?

Human activities are more the problem, but the sheer number (and thus pressure) is starting to not strain, but rather break the system.

what is shifting baseline syndrome

What we use as a "baseline" for change is undoubtedly not what was there before mankind. With each warming trend, sedimentation event, etc, our baseline changes.

when did disturbance happen to the caribbean baseline?

mid 17th century to 18th century

what was the primary impact of the caribbean baseline

overfishing followed by coastal transformation and runoff

how much have the florida keys lost

90%+

what is the best hope for coral reefs?

protected areas, 1.5% of corals in these areas

where have marine reserves been established?

CA, HA, New Zealand, and Great Britain

who established Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument?

Barack Obama

in reefs, why do you need to have connections?

so gene flow is maintained

what do many species of coral and reed fish have extremely limited amounts of?

range

what ecological services do reefs provide?

Consumptive resources, water purification, nitrogen fixing, sediment control, island stabilization, etc.

what can be used as a baseline?

few remote, untouched, protected reefs

Conservation biology is not just a biological science but also...

a political, societal, and economic science.

there is clear evidence that if we protect reef and make changes corals have...

a chance

"If the top 10m of the ocean became 100% inhospitable to corals, ______% of the coral in the red sea and _____% in South Africa would survive.

50.4, 99