Public Opinion, Polling Methods, and Political Ideology in AP Government

On Reading Quiz pp. 222-231

public opinion

what the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time

public opinion polls

interviews/surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population

George Gallup

one of the earliest developers of scientific methods for public opinion polling and a proponent for a strong role for the voice of the public in politics and gov.

Declaration of Independence

public opinion must be considered by the gov. since they operate on 'the consent of the governed'

Federalist Papers

in common, US would succeed as governing document

John Jay

'one united people', Christian voters

Abraham Lincoln

'of the people, by the people, and for the people'

straw poll

unscientific survey used to display public opinion on a variety of issues and policies

sample

a subset of the whole population selected to be questioned for the purposes of prediction or gauging (calculating) opinion

Literary Digest

popular magazine that first began national presidential polling (1916)

Errors in Literary Digest polling

1. drew from sample of whole population (oversampled upper middle class and wealthy groups that were HEAVILY republican) 2. Timing- early Sept. did not allow it to measure changes in public sentiment 3. Self-selection- only highly motivated individuals sent back the cards

The Gallup Organization

George Gallup's predictions were on point for the Roosevelt election, money back guarantee!! he was so confident

ANES (American National Election Studies)

est. 1952 researchers collecting data on the opinions of the people on parties and candidates

Push polls

polls taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against that candidate

polling data accuracy

Is polling data always accurate? Majority

Figure 10.1

Graph shows how poll organizations like Gallup have been able to produce perfect estimations.

1940s polling firms

private polling firms increased during the 1940s

successful presidents

Judged favorably by history

Wording of a question

The way wording a question affects how people respond.

Targeted polling

This type of polling targeted more than ¾ of political candidates.

World Values Survey (WVS)

Conducts surveys in more than 100 countries to gain a clear understanding of people all across the world.

Essential characteristics of a democracy

Different for countries like Russia and Brazil, public opinions vary.

Population

The entire group of people whose attitudes a researcher wishes to measure.

Random sampling

A method of poll selection that gives each person in a group the same chance of being selected.

Stratified sampling

A variation of random sampling; the population is divided into subgroups and weighted based on demographic characteristics of the national population.

Tracking polls

Continuous surveys that enable a campaign or news organization to chart a candidate's daily/weekly rise or fall in support.

Exit Polls

Polls conducted as voters leave selected polling places on Election Day.

Selecting the sample

After deciding to conduct a poll, they must determine the population.

Demographic characteristics

Characteristics used to select a set number of respondents to be interviewed.

Contacting respondents

Telephone interviews conducted on a daily basis for tracking polls.

Analyzing the data

Analysts pay attention to subgroups within the data (democrats vs republicans).

Survey error

Errors that can occur in polling, including limited respondent options and lack of information.

Margin of error

A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll within statistical parameters.

Sampling error

Errors resulting from the size or the quality of a survey sample.

Limited respondent options

A problem noted by V.O. Key Jr where simple yes or no wouldn't be sufficient to accurately measure a 5-7 point scale or 0-100 measuring scale.

Lack of information

Responses such as 'No opinion' or 'don't know'.

Difficulty measuring intensity

Inability to measure intensity of feeling about particular issues.

Lack of interest in political issues

Americans are usually more interested in domestic policy issues like healthcare and employment.

Political ideology

The coherent set of values and beliefs about the purpose and scope of government held by groups and individuals.

Conservative

One who favors limited government intervention, especially in economic problems.

Social conservative

One who believes that the government should support traditional moral teachings.

Isaiah Berlin

Beliefs as an important political force; science and technology affect nationalism, racism, and religious bigotry.

Political conflicts

Natural groups within society leading to political conflicts.