Cog: Decision Making & Reasoning

What are the 3 elements of a decision?

Judgment, reasoning, and decision

Judgement

To judge/form an opinion

Reasoning

The process of drawing conclusions

Decision

The process of choosing btwn alternatives

Inductive Reasoning

Process of drawing a general conclusion based on specific observations

• Specific cases ——> board principles

Deductive Reasoning

Process of determining whether a specific conclusion logically follows from a general statement

• broad principles —> specific cases

Where are inductive conclusions generalized from?

Conclusions generalized from premise

Inductive premises are stated as what?

Premise stated as observations of specific observations

Deductive conclusions are drawn from?

Conclusions drawn from logical rules applied to premise

Deductive premises are stated as?

Premise stated as facts or general principles

Inductive reasoning is what types of process?

Bottom Up

Deductive reasoning is what type of process?

Top down

Representativeness of Observations

How well observations about a particular category represent all members of that category

Number of observations

How many observations are made

Quality of Evidence

Observations can be supported by scientific evidence

Confirmation Bias

We look for information that supports our opinions and ignore information that refutes it

Inductive arguments are weakened by what?

Inductive arguments are weakened by bias to confirm/support our opinions

Myside Bias

We evaluate evidence in a way that’s biased toward our own opinions and attitudes

Backfire Effect

Our support for a given opinion can be stronger when faced with facts that oppose it

Heuristics

Educated guesses, intuitive judgments, or common sense used to solve a problem quickly

• “rule of thumb”

Availability Heuristic

Events that come to mind more easily are judged as being more probable

• our conclusions are biased by evidence that is more available

Undue weight is given to _________ that comes to mind more easily

Anecdotal Evidence

Illusory Correlations

When a relationship between 2 events appears to exist, but in reality, there’s little/no relationship

• Stereotypes are a common form

Representativeness Heuristic

Events that are more similar to a given category more likely to be judged as being part of that category

Base Rate

Relative proportion of different classes in populations

T or F: we rely on representativeness to the occupation categories and ignore base rate

Truw

Conjunction Rule

Probability of a conjunction of 2 events cannot be higher than probability of events alone

Law of Large Numbers

More individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the group will be drawn of an entire population

Syllogism

Consist of 2 broad statements (premises) and a conclusion

Categorical Syllogism

Statements with “all”, “no”, or “some”

Conditional Syllogism

1st premise has “if…then” format

Valid Syllogisms (Categorical)

Conclusion follows logically from premises

T or F: Not all valid Syllogisms are true

True

Invalid Syllogism

conclusion doesn’t follow logically from premises

T or F: all invalid syllogisms are false

False. Not all invalid syllogisms are not true.

Belief Bias

tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusions are believable

Conditional Syllogisms

It’s easier to see the logic is invalid when using statements that also make it inaccurate

falsification principle

to test a rule, it’s necessary to look for a situation that would falsify it

T or F: real world problems are easier to solve than abstract problems

True

Decision

process of choosing between alternatives

Expected Utility Theory

Assumes if people have all relevant info, they’ll make a decision that results in outcomes that help to achieve their goals

Framing Effect

Decisions influenced by how choices are stated

Status Quo Bias

Tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision

Risk Aversion

Tendency to avoid taking risks

Dual Systems Approach

Idea that we may have different systems for decision making