politics - voting behaviour and the media

what are the three key elections to know

• 1979

• 1997

• 2010

who won the 1979 election

Margaret Thatcher

info about the 1979 general election

• thatcher vs callaghan

• called after james callaghan’s minority labour govt lost a vote of no confidence in the house of commons

• the election initiated 18 years of conservative rule, under thatcher up to 1990 and then john major till 1997-end of post-war consensus

• thatcher’s initial majority was modest , but it increased in 1983 and 1987; john major clung to power in the 1992 election

• labour descended into a prolonged period of left/right infighting over policy until the reinvention of the party under tony blair enabled it to return to power

turnout of the 1979 general election

party n of seats increase/ loss of seats % of popular

conservative 339 + 62 43.9

labour 269 -50 36.9

liberal 11 - 2 13.8

who won the 1997 general election

tony blair

info about the 1997 election

• landslide victory of the new labour , which removed john majors’s conservatives from office and opened the way to 13 years of labour govt

• tony blair was PM until 2007 when he was succeeded by gordon brown

• the libdems emerged as a significant third force at westminster

• the conservatives were troubled by ongoing divisions , poor leadership and an inability to appear relevant to contemporary society. they were unable to dislodge labour from power in the next two elections

1997 general election turnout

party n of seats increase/loss of seats % of popular vote

lboura 418 + 145 43.2

conservative 165 - 178 30.7

libdems 46 + 28 16.8

who won the 2010 general election

no one - david camerons conservative party didn’t gain enough votes si therefore were forced into a coalition with the libdems

info about the 2010 general election

• the election that saw blair’s successor, Gordon brown removed from office ending the new labour era

• david cameron’s conservatives increased their share of the seats , benefiting from 4 years of efforts at modernisation under their new leader

• the conservatives did not gain an independent majority , so had to form a coalition ( the first since 1945) with the liberal democrats. against predictions , the coalition survived a full term , partly due to the fixed term parliament act on which the liberal democrats had insisted

• cameron won a slender conservative majority in the 2015 election

• turnout: 65.1% , size of majority: none following the election; the conservative -liberal democrat coalition that was formed afterwards had a majority of 77

2010 general election turnout

factors that effect the outcome of general elections

• the impact of party policies and the manifesto

• the techniques that parties use in their election campaigns

• wider political context e.g. the state of the economy, the public image of party leaders , and what is going on at the time

1979 - party policies and manifestos

• both the labour and conservatives manifestos were notable for their moderation

• both gave high priority to bringing inflation down

• callaghan came from labours traditional centre-right and he resisted pressure from more extreme proposals from his party’s left wing

• Thatcher’s policy statement contained very little indication that she intended to move her party to the right - there was a mention of returning recently nationalised industries to private hands and removing some trade union powers , but no suggestion of a radical crusade to scale down the state sector

• this meant that when callaghan warned the electorate of a lurch to the right if the conservatives won, it had little credibility

1979 election campaign

• conservatives adopted many techniques of modern advertising under the guidance of two professional publicity specialists , gordon reece and tim bell

• the labour campaign lacked awareness of the finer points of presentation whereas thatcher proved amenable to her advisers’ invention of photo opportunities , and was pictured doing everything from tasting tea to holding a newborn calf .

• although the conservatives outpaced labour in the opinion polls when voters were asked who would make the better PM , ‘sunny jim’ callaghan was 20 points ahead of thatcher on average

• in spite of his mistakes voters still respected his air of experience, thatcher was wise to turn down the offer of a televised debate which would have highlighted this difference between them

• it was perfectly acceptable to do so as a debate had not been held at any previous election

1979 - the wider political context

• real reason for thatchers victory = weakness of the labour govt which precipitated the dissolution of parliament

• in spite of callaghans personal popularity and tentative signs of economic improvement there was never much doubt that the conservatives would win

• callaghans govt was a minority administration that survived by constructing deals with smaller parties - this left is vulnerable to defeat in the house of commons

• moreover callaghan mistimed the election - there was a widespread expectation that he would call an election in the autumn of 1978 , but he backed away from doing so

• during the ‘winter of discontent’ which followed in the early months of 1979 the govt’s attempt to impose a 5 % limit on pay increases collapsed as a series of strikes, by lorry drivers, health workers , refuse collectors and even in one local authority , grave diggers, created a sense of national paralysis

• callaghans failure to control militant trade unions handed the conservatives the winning card - the media showed images of a miserable, strike-bound britain

• when callaghan returned from a carribean island summit at home , the sun accused him of being out of touch - a politically lethal headline summarised his off-the-cuff remarks in three words: ‘crisis? what crisis?’ - this provided the conservatives with an irresistible theme: that the country needed a new direction and a govt that could grapple with economic and social breakdown

• the election was triggered by a withdrawal of support for the govt by nationalist parties after the result of referendums on scottish and welsh devolution went against the govt

• this forced callaghan to go to the county at the worst possible time for his party

1997 - party policies and manifestos

• as labour leader tony blair drove forward the policy of modernisation that had tentatively begun under his predecessors , neil kinnock(1983-92) and john smith (1992-94)

• the new labour project abandoned old-fashioned party policies such as nationalisation, tax increases and the strengthening of trade union powers, which might put off non-committed middle-class voters

• blair also gave off reassuringly tough signals on law and order , an issue that mattered to voters following rising crime rates in the early 1990s and emphasised his links to the business community

• crucially labour won the endorsement of the greater part of the press , including the sun and the times . the message was that new labour was a moderate party with the interests of ‘middle england’ at heart.

• as a sign of the party’s desire to show how responsible it was , its 1997 platform stressed specific policy details where it promised to make a difference, such as reducing the size of primary school classes and cutting hospital waiting lists .

• there was no stark difference between labour and the conservatives

• blairs emphasis on constitutional reform, which gave the party common ground with the liberal democrats - this made it easier for liberal democrats to vote tactically for labour in marginal seats which their own candidates could not hope to win. this may have added up to 30 seats to the labour majority

1997 - the election campaign

• new labour placed a huge emphasis on developing a professional vote-winning machine

• it employed public-relations experts to handle the media ,used focus groups to assess public opinion and systematically targeted marginal seats rather than safe seats

• HOWEVER this may have not been as effective - labours share of the vote increased on average by 12.5% in its target seats but by 13.4% in constituencies that it neglected

• despite the central control over the campaign exerted by labour headquarters , the party’s lead in the opinion polls actually declined in the course of the campaign

1997 - the wider political context

• labour could not have won on such a large scale without the damage the conservatives inflicted on themselves after their narrow victory in the 1992 election.

• turnout in 1997 was relatively low at 71.4% which meant that under 31% of the registered electorate actually voted labour

• this does not suggest a mass popular movement in support of labour

• the conservatives had their worst election result since 1832 , winning only 30.7% of the vote - the 1997 result can only be fully explained by looking at the failures of john major’s govt

• economic policy played an important role - by 1997 the economy was recovering from the recession of the early part of the decade , but voters did not give the conservatives credit for this

• they remembered the catastrophe of black wednesday in september 1992 rather than the modest economic improvement that followed

• there was no tangible feel good factor in 1997, as the fruits of recovery failed to feed through into either tax cuts or increased investment in public services

• monthly opinion polls show that labour was consistently ahead of the conservatives from the autumn of 1992 onwards - the conservatives had lost their reputation as efficient managers of the economy and failed to retrieve it

• the image of tory incompetence was confirmed by a series of financial and sexual scandals,’ sleaze’ , and continuing divisions over britains relationship with the EU - the impression of weak leadership was fatal for the conservatives

2010 - party policies and manifestos

• there was little difference between the three main parties on the main issue of the election - the need to reduce the budget deficit which had increased to £163 billion since the financial crisis of 2007-08

• all three parties pledged to make savings without sacrificing essential public services

• the differences were on timing and extent of public-spending cuts

• the conservatives were alone in calling for immediate cuts; their rivals argued that this would jeopardise the fragile recovery of the economy from recession , and the cuts should be phased in gradually

• from 2008 cameron and his team focussed their attacks on labour’s alleged mismanagement of the economy, accusing the party of reckless overspending and failure to regulate the banking system effectively

• this gained considerable traction with the electorate, in one opinion poll 59% of voters agreed that most of the extra money spent by the labour govt had been wasted

2010 - the election campaign

• the 2010 election provides further evidence of the limited importance of campaigns in determining the final result

• the conservatives had begun intense targeting of marginal seats early in the 2005-10 parliament , striving to get their candidates established at local level, market -testing policies with voters and emphasising their support for public services on which people depended

• yet in spite of these efforts the conservatives were still 20 seats short of an overall majority

• with labour , gordon browns scandal in rochdale where a voter embarrassed him with a hostile question about immigration, a radio microphone picked him up describing her as a ‘bigoted woman’ while he was being driven away. the incident was seized on by the media but its actual significance was limited . brown was already behind in the polls and in fact labour held rochdale, where the incident took place

• the decision to hold televised debates featuring the three main party leaders was the most remarkable innovation of the 2010 campaign

• brown was generally felt to have come across as rather wooden , and his tendency to reply ‘ I agree with nick’ was derided at the time

• nick clegg experienced a boost in the opinion polls after an unexpectedly good performance in the first of the 3 debates , but this fell back before polling day

• although the libdems were able to enter govt in coalition with the conservatives , they lost a total of five seats

2010 - the wider political context

• a similarity with james callaghan’s 1979 defeat was gordon brown’s choice of election date - when he succeeded tony blair as PM in june 2007 brown briefly encourages speculation that he would call an autumn election in order to secure a personal mandate

• when he decided not to do so he was widely ridiculed for alleged cowardice and his reputation never fully recovered

• he then had to grapple with the financial crisis and ensuing recession, which gave the conservatives ammunition to use against him

• although many independent commentators commended him for the emergency action he took, in bailing out the banks and partly nationalising those on the brink of failure , he received little political credit for this

• brown was harshly treated in the media , being depicted as insecure, cantankerous workaholic who could not articulate a convincing vision for the country

• an Ipsos MORI shortly before the lection showed that 33% of people regarded cameron as the most capable potential PM compared to 29% for brown - but when asked about particular leadership characteristics, brown was consistently ahead on such criteria as ‘who best understands the problems facing britain’ or ‘who would be best in a crisis’ - clearly the electorate was not fully convinced that cameron was ready to take over

• opinion polls showed that conservatives ahead of labour on some issues , but in spite of cameron’s efforts at modernisation of the party , these still tended to come from traditional conservative territory , such as immigration and law and order

• on the main question facing the country - management of the economy, 29% of voters felt that the conservatives has the best policy compared to 26% for labour - a further 36% did not choose any of the parties - this helps to explain why the conservatives were unable to secure an independent majority

class dealignment

the process where individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a certain class and do not vote for the party they may be expected to , given their background

class voting

voting in line with the political party that supposedly best protects and serves the interests of a particular class

up to when were voters in britain strongly influenced by their social class background

1970s

example of class voting

• working class people ( who earned living from manual labour) = voted for the labour party , it was closely linked to the trade union movement and looked after the interests of those who worked in the traditional heavy industries of coal,steel,textiles and shipbuilding

• middle class people (non-manual or ‘white collar’ workers, property owners and business people) = voted conservative

when did class dealignment start to begin

1970s- 2000s

who did labour and cons appeal to to voters outside their designated class

• there was never a completely clear-cut social divide between the two parties

• labour also commanded the support of a section of the middle class, especially those who worked in the state sector, such as teachers and social workers and it had a following among university intellectuals

• the conservatives appealed to deferential and patriotic working class voters who valued established institutions such as the monarchy - without and appeal beyond the ranks of the middle classes they would not have held office for the greater part of the period

partisan dealignment

the process where individuals no longer identify themselves on a long-term basis as being associated with a certain political party

what happened to the link between class and voting after the second world war

it became less pronounced , as society grew more affluent and class differences became less visible

when was the weakening of class-based voting already apparent

by the time of the 1979 election

what govt policy in the 1980s promoted the erosion of class divisions

the sale of council houses to tenants under the thatcher govt

how did the decline of old heavy industries affect labour’s support

it reduced trade union power leading to less unionisation and fewer labour supporters

what trend in the 1990s did the creation of new labour recognise

the decline of traditional class-based voting and the need to appeal to middle-class voters

what contributed to tony blair’s victory in 1997

his ability to broaden labour’s appeal to middle-class voters while keeping working-class support

how did labour symbolically drop its historic class-based stance in 1995

by ending its commitment to public ownership of key industries like railways and energy companies

which classes are more likely to vote conservative and which are more likely to vote labour

higher classes are more likely to vote conservative and lower classes are more likely to vote labour

how does financial stake affect voter turnout

people with property , savings. and investments are more likely to vote than poorer individuals

what were the 2010 turnout rates for the highest vs lowest social classes

76% for the two highest social classes vs 57% for the two lowest

what was the difference in turnout between homeowners and those in social/private rented housing in 2010

homeowners = 74%

renters = 55%

what factors traditionally instilled loyalty to political parties in the past

family tradition , workplace , and local community

why did bonds of party loyalty weaken in the late 20th and early 21st centuries

people were less likely to work in the same industry for life and improving education reduced traditional attachments

what are floating or swinging voters

voters who do not identify with a particular party and are open to persuasion at each election

what caused the rise in floating voters

disillusion and apathy - a growing sense of loss of confidence in politics and politicians to solve problems

what does ‘apathy’ mean in the political context

a loss of confidence in the capacity of politics and politicians to solve problems and make a difference

what is the ‘core vote’

the section of the electorate who can be relied upon to support one of the two largest parties

how did the size of the core vote change between 1979 and 2010

in 1979 , 81% of the electorate voted for labour or the conservatives ; by 1997 this had fallen to 74% , and by 2010 to 65%

disillusion

disappointment from discovering something is not as good as one believed it to be e.g. having no confidence in politics and politicians as being able to solve issues and make a difference

rational choice theory

the idea that voters behave like consumers, deciding how to vote by evaluating what is the most beneficial option for them as individuals

• voters look at the policies on offer and choose the party most closely aligned to their preferences - this is linked to the growth of a more educated electorate , with more access to political information , particularly since the rise of the internet

why is the rational choice theory problematic

this approach is problematic because it assumes that voters make rational choices based upon a knowledge of party policies . it does not explain elections where voters feel differently about different issues, or where there is no single overriding issue

rational choice theory also means that voters are influenced by questions such as ….

• who is the best potential PM among the available party leaders?

• who is expected to manage the economy most successfully?

• who will provide the best quality public services?

when did many skill workers vote conservative for the first time

1979

why did many skilled workers vote conservative for the first time in 1979

in response to margaret thatcher’s populist style and because they had become disenchanted with the perceived incompetence of labour govt’s in the 1970s

how long did the skilled manual workers who voted conservative in 1979 stay conservative for

for the next three general elections - 1983, 1987, 1992

when did the skilled manual workers transfer their support from conservative to labour

in 1997 to New labour as evidence of poor management by john major’s govt began to accumulate - they also voted labour in 2001 and 2005 but abandoned the party in 2010 after their faith in it was weakened by the financial crisis and the ensuing recession

governing competency

the perceived ability of the governing party in office to manage the affairs of state effectively. it also applies to the way that voters regard the potential competency of an opposition party , if it were to win office.

what is a variant of the rational choice theory

economic voting model

economic voting model

this holds that voters are more likely to support a governing party if it has managed the economy successfully

• alternatively they may give their support to a party that is thought likely to deliver economic prosperity , either to voters themselves and their families or to the population as a whole

• voters may be influenced by factors such as inflation , unemployment,

  interest rates and taxation or more generally by a broader sense of well-being, sometimes known as the ‘feel good factor’

examples of the ‘feel good factor’

• public anger over the ‘ winter of discontent’ played a major part in the conservatives’ election victory in 1979

• the absence of the ‘feel good factor’ also worked to the conservatives’ advantage in the 2010 election , as they were able to portray labour as having responded inadequately to the financial crisis

why has the public image of party leaders become more important

because politics has become increasingly personalised

presidentialisation

the idea that the UK election campaigns are increasingly shaped by voters’ perceptions of the leading figures , as they are in the US presidential contests

e.g. Blair modelled himself to a great extent on thatcher’s strong leadership qualities . brown notoriously failed to come across as a dynamic , assured leader in 2010 , although the election result suggests that voters were not fully persuaded by cameron as a replacement for him

why have leaders; appearances have become increasingly stage managed

to avoid possibly awkward encounters with members of the public who may react in a negative manner

how does gender influence voting behaviour , turnouts and trends

• historically women had a slightly stronger preference for the conservatives than male voters did - this may have been because women favoured a stable society and as the main carer in most households , they responded to the traditional tory emphasis on the family

• in the blair era the difference between male and female voting habits lessened , with younger women being slightly more likely than men to vote labour - this may be because by the 1990s , women were as likely as men to have a job outside the home , so their worlds became more similar

• alternatively they may have been responding to new labour’s more family-friendly policies , such as the provision of free nursery places

• older women are more likely to vote conservative than younger women - in this sense they are similar to men

• in the 2010 election 30% of women aged 18-24 voted conservative while for women over 55 this rose to 42%

• the party leaders recognised the importance of younger women as a constituency , targeting them through platforms such as the parenting advice website mumsnet

• turnout does not differ significantly between men and women - in the 2010 election 66% of men and 64% of women voted - turnout among men and women of the same social class was also strikingly similar

what are the four factors that can influence voting behaviour,turnouts and trends

• age

• gender

• ethnicity

• region

the influence of age on voting behaviour , turnouts and trends

• older people exhibit a greater tendency than the young to vote conservative - as they are more likely to own property , they will vote for the party that can be expected to protect their material interests

• age means that they are also less likely to vote idealistically or with the aspiration of fundamentally changing society

• political outlooks are shaped by voters’ experiences - older voters today will remember the difficulties faced by the labour govts in the 1970s , when trade unions enjoyed greater power and this may influence them to support the conservatives - not a factor for voters in their 20s

• in 2010, 44% of over 65 year olds favoured the conservatives , compared to just 30% of 18-24 year olds - in recognition of this trend david cameron refused to cut pensioner benefits while labour and the liberal democrats argued for the removal of the winter fuel allowance from better-off retired people

• age is an important factor in patterns of turnout - older people are more likely than the young to vote -76% of those over 65 did so in 2010 compared to 44% of the 18-24 age group

• the elderly have acquired habits of voting earlier in their lives and tend to see the outcome of elections as having more impact on their lives

• younger people are more likely to feel alienated from a political system that has not as they see it made a significant difference to their lives

how does ethnicity influence voting behaviour ,turnouts and trends

• ethnic minorities are traditionally more inclined to vote labour, which has focused more strongly that its opponents on promoting a multi-cultural and anti-discrimination agenda

• there is a link to class here as members of minorities are disproportionately employed in low-wage jobs

• one exception is that asians are more likely to support the conservatives than voters of african descent , because the former respond in particular to the party’s emphasis on small business values

• HOWEVER overall ethnic minority voters have remained loyal to labour - in 2010 they preferred labour to the conservatives by 60 to 16%

• ethnicity is also a significant discriminator when it comes to turnout , with 67% of white people voting in 2010, compared to only 51% of ethnic minority groups

how does region influence voting behaviour , turnouts and trends

• there is a strong regional bias to voting patterns , linked in part to class differences

• most voters in the south and in rural areas and suburbs -the most prosperous areas with the highest levels of employment and home ownership - are typically conservative supporters

• conversely in industrial and urban areas in the north of england , wales and the midlands - the poorer areas of the country there is much stronger loyalty to labour

the role of media in politics and its impact

• by the 21st century a variety of forms of media were available in the UK which impacts on politics in different ways both at elections and in the intervals between them

• the oldest form of media is the newspaper press - circulation of most newspapers has declined in recent years as voters have increasingly turned to new media , notably the internet from the 1990s and social media from the 2000s

• however the press continues to be important , many people now read newspapers online

• television and radio news programmes take up stories that the press has publicised and newspaper journalists are often quoted and interviewed on other media

• television still dominates media coverage of elections and is probably the most important means by which voters obtain political information

• an estimated 9.6 million people watched the first of the leaders debates in the 2010 election campaign , seven million viewers watched the leaders’ debate on ITV in the 2015 election and 4 million watched a further BBC debate in which only the opposition party leaders took part. in 2017 ahead of the june general election just 3.5 million viewers watched a leaders debate on the BBC which saw prime minister theresa may deputised for by home secretary amber rudd

example of firms that run polls

Ipsos , MORI , populus and YouGov

what are opinion polls

polls aim to gauge the popularity of political parties by asking a sample of people how they intend to vote . they also ask the public more detailed questions about their opinion of the party leaders and their policies

what do parties do with opinion polls

the parties take note of their findings and conduct their own polls

what is the exit poll

asks voters how they have voted as they leave the polling station - this does not take account of people who have voted in advance by post

are opinion polls always accurate

no

1992 example of opinion polls being inaccurate

• in 1992 most failed to predict john major’s 21 seat majority. instead the majority of polls predicted either a narrow labour victory or a hung parliament

• there were different explanations for this inaccuracy . some commentators suggested that there was a ‘boomerang effect’ - the polls had shown labour in the lead early in the campaign , causing voters who did not want a labour victory to turn out and cause a late swing to the conservatives

• it was also suggested that the results had been skewed by the phenomenon of so-called ‘shy tories’ : people who intended to vote conservative but did not want to declare themselves in public because they felt self conscious about supporting a party that was viewed as ‘uncaring’ - in response to this , the polling firms adjusted the way in which they selected their samples, and made more use of telephone polling , which was considered more accurate than face to face interviews

2015 example of opinion polls being inaccurate

• the polling agencies were wrong again in 2015 - they correctly predicted that the scottish national party would overwhelm labour , which had previously been a powerful force in scotland but at UK level on average they predicted that labour and the conservatives would each win about 34% of the vote

• this proved to be some way off the mark: in the event the conservatives won a small majority with 36.9 % of the vote , leaving labour with 30.4%

• an inquiry found that the polling firms had not surveyed a representative selection of the nation’s voters - in particular they did not question enough retired people, who were more likely to be conservative supporters , and they interviewed too many politically engaged people , who were untypical of their age group and were more likely to vote labour