Voting Behaviour Combined

How has turnout changed since 1992?

Sharply declining

What are some theories as to why turnout is declining? (3)

• Decline in social capital means people are less inclined to feel they are part of society

• FPTP alienates the electorate due to disproportionality

• Growth in issues and parties has made elections less clear cut and more difficult to understand

Why might the social capital theory not be convincing?

There has been a growth in rights culture and media engagement

Why might the FPTP theory not be convincing?

• Alternative voting rejected in 2011 referendum

• Turnout is even lower in UK election which use other voting systems

Why might the issues theory not be convincing?

People tend to cast their vote on one or two issues that mean the most to them, not every single one possible

What are some examples of a lack of meaningful choice since 1992?

• 1997: did not feel like a serious challenge

• 2001: all time turnout low of 59%

• 2015: 4% jump due to supposed competitive contest

Why did 1997 not feel like a serious challenge?

• Labour was clearly going to be successful

• Conservatives reputation marred by sleaze

Why might turnout have been low in 2001?

• Tony Blair hugely popular

• Conservatives remained deeply divided over Europe

Why was 2015 not actually that competitive?

• Incumbent and increasingly unpopular David Cameron led a divided party

• Unpopular opposition leader in Ed Miliband

What are the arguments that politicians ARE to blame for declining turnout? (3)

• Failed to inspire the public

• Scandals and corruption have turned people away from politics

• Negative campaigning and adversarial politics have alienated people

What are the arguments that politicians ARE NOT to blame for declining turnout? (3)

• The public should be more vocal about the lack of choice in order to make a change

• Media are responsible for undermining respect for politics

• Low turnout reflections social and generational changes out of the control of politicians

What are the key theories of voter choice? (3)

• Rational choice theory

• Issue voting

• Economic / Valence issues

What is the rational choice theory?

Assumes that voters weigh up all the political options logically and vote for the party that will deliver the best result for them

What is issue voting?

Voters prioritise one issue above all others and vote purely based on that issue

What is a valence issue?

One where voters share a common preference

→ e.g. economy, healthcare, education

What is the valence issue theory?

Voters choose a party based on how well they think the party will perform on those issues

What is meant by governing competency?

Perceived ability of the government, or opposition, to manage the affairs of the country well

What are the key factors affecting individual voting? (6)

• Policies

• Key issues

• Performance in office

• Leadership

• Image

• Tactical voting

How do policies affect individual voting?

• Voters consider policies presented in party manifestos

• Make decision on which set suits them best

• Rational choice theory in action

How do key issues affect individual voting?

• Party campaigns increasingly focus on a clear message about one issue they think will win them the election

• Voters cast based on ths issue that is the most important to them

How does performance in office affect individual voting?

• Voters tend to see election as referendum on current government

• Rewarded or punished based on valence issues

How does leadership affect individual voting?

• Voters often take view that they are selecting PM rather than party or MP

• Leaders must convince voters that they are capable and trustworthy through media presence

How does image affect individual voting?

Voters will make their choice based on their perception of a party’s image

→ Issue voting

How does tactical voting affect individual voting?

• If their preferred candidate is unlikely to win the seat, the voter will choose their next favoured if they have better chance

• Done to prevent the candidate of the least favoured party from winning the seat

How does age affect voting? (2)

• Younger voters lean left, while older lean right

• The older the voter, the more likely they are to vote

How does age affect turnout?

Increases with age

• 2019: -55% of 18-24 voted

• Compared to 80% of 75+

How can age distort the polls?

Social platforms and online polling tend to focus on young people

How does age impact party policies?

• Know the significance of age

• Tend to tailor their policies accordingly (e.g. promises to protect pensions)

What are the key concerns for older people?

• Pensions

• NHS

• Law and order

• Limited social reform

What are some key concerns for younger people?

• Housing for the young

• Youth unemployment

• University fees

• Reform of drug laws

Why are these policies neglected by parties?

The people whom these issues appeal to are not likely to vote

How did 18-25 year olds vote in 2024?

• Men:

  • 40% Labour

  • 10% Conservatives

  • 12% Reform

• Women:

  • 42% Labour

  • 6% Conservatives

  • 23% Green

• Both: 16% LibDem

How did 65+ year olds vote in 2024?

• Men

  • 21% Labour

  • 41% Conservative

  • 19% Reform

• Women

  • 23% Labour

  • 42% Conservatives

  • 13% Reform

Why do ethnic minority voters tend to favour Labour? (2)

• Legacy of anti-minority campaigning by the Conservatives (e.g. Enoch Powell ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech)

• Concentration in industrial urban centres

Why are ethnic minority voters concentrated in urban areas?

1950s: mass immigration of workers often ended up in urban areas doing industrial labouring

→ Benefited from Labour policies of social equality

What were the Conservative’s view on race in the 1960s and 1970s?

Played on ‘white fright’ and fears about the changing nature of British society to win elections

What is the turnout like for ethnic minority voters?

Less likely to turn out

→ e.g. 2015: 56%

What percentage of the UK is classed as white?

2021: 81.7%

How does gender affect voting behaviour?

Men and women have different priorities

→ Women are generally more likely to support parties with a focus on:

• Healthcare

• Education

• Social welfare

How has Labour attempted to appeal to female voters in recent years? (5)

• Focus on equal pay, workplace rights and childcare support

• National Strategry to tackle gender-based violence

• Use of all-women shortlists

• Visible female leadership

• Advocating for increased NHS funding

How have the Conservatives attempted to appeal to female voters in recent years? (5)

• Women in key leadership (e.g. May, Badenoch)

• Family-orientated politics (e.g. low taxes, job creation)

• Expansion of free childcare hours to 30 weeks

• Domestic Abuse Act 2021

• Funding women’s health strategy

How have the Liberal Democrats attempted to appeal to female voters in recent years? (5)

• Promotion of equal pay enforcement

• Gender quotas and diversity targets for candidate selection (‘Campaign for Gender Balance’)

• Proposals for universal free childcare (9mo - school age)

• Push for specialist courts to deal with gender-based violence

• Advancing period poverty initiatives

How did women vote in the 2024 election?

• 35% Labour

• 26% Conservatives

• 13% LibDem

What areas do the Conservatives tend to do the best in? (3)

• Predominantly white

• Rural or suburban

• Socially conservative

What areas do Labour tend to do the best in?

Since 2005

• Industrial urban areas in south Wales

• Industrial north

• London

How does Scotland usually vote?

Left wing

• Traditionally Labour

• Rise in support for the SNP

Why does Scotland usually vote this way?

• Opposition to London-centred and New Right policies

• Specific social and economic problems in Scotland

• Impact of devolution

Why has Labour lost its dominance in Scotland?

Concentrating on winning seats in England

How does Wales usually vote?

A Labour bias, but a fairly even split regionally

Why does Wales usually vote this way?

• Industrial areas favour Labour

• Rural areas vote Conservative or LibDem

• Far west more likely to vote nationalist, more Welsh speakers

How does Northern Ireland usually vote?

Split between unionist and nationalist parties

Why does Northern Ireland usually vote this way?

Reflects religious and cultural divisions

How does London usually vote?

Majoritiy Labour

Why does London usually vote this way?

• Increasing ethnic diversity

• Greater economic disparity across the city

• Reliance on public services

• More socially liberal

How does rural England usually vote?

Overwhelmingly Conservative

Why does rural England usually vote this way?

• Mostly white

• Economically conservative

• Socially conservative

How does the north of England usually vote?

Mostly Labour

Why does the north of England usually vote this way?

• Higher levels of unemployment

• Greater rates of poverty and urban decay

• Greater ethnic diversity

How do the home counties usually vote?

Predominantly ConservativeWh

Why do the home counties usually vote this way?

• London commuter belt made up of C1, B and A classes

• Mostly white

• More conservative than London

• Economically prosperous

What are the home counties? (6)

• Berkshire

• Buckinghamshire

• Essex

• Hertfordshire

• Kent

• Surrey

How does the southeast of England usually vote?

• Becoming more divided

• Votes for Greens and Reform reduce support for the three main parties

What are the UK class categories? (6)

• A

• B

• C1

• C2

• D

• E

Who falls in class A?

Higher managerial and professional workers

→ e.g. business owners, judges

Who falls in class B?

Middle managers and professionals

→ e.g. store managers, teachers, lawyers

Who falls in class C1?

Clerical workers

→ e.g. office clerks, secretaries

Who falls in class C2?

Skilled manual workers

→ e.g. builders, electricians, plumbers

Who falls in class D?

Semi-skilled and unskilled workers

→ e.g. day labourers, factory workers

Who falls in class E?

Unemployed, pensioners and those unable to work

What determined how people votes until the 1980s?

Class

Which classes were described as middle class?

• A

• B

• C1

Who did the middle class tend to vote for?

Conservatives

Which classes were described as working class?

• C2

• D

• E

Who did the working class tend to vote for?

Labour

What is a core voter?

Somone who will loyally vote for a party, regardless of any personal issues

What was the result of class voting?

Each party had a set of core voters from a distinct social class

→ Reflected the fact that economic factors were the top concern for many people

What is an example of clear class voting?

1970: 88% of all votes went to the two main parties

→ Had been presented a clear, class-based choice

What has caused the decline of importance of economic issues?

• Economic reforms

• Changing societal attitudes

What are some examples of things that are now important to voters? (6)

• Immigration

• Civil and human rights

• Crime

• Welfare provision

• Attitudes to sex and sexuality

  • Britain’s international reputation

What is class dealignment?

Where people no longer vote according to their social class

What has caused class dealignment?

More importance placed on issues that cross the class-based divisionsW

What is partisan dealignment?

Idea that people are less committed or loyal to one particular party

What has caused partisan dealignment?

Widening of issues that are considered important by the electorate

What are floating (swing) voters?

Voters who are not loyal to one party

→ Open for persuasion

What has caused the increse in swing voters?

Voters are more likely to consider multiple issues before voting for a party

How has the weakening class system impacted the political parties?

• 1945-92: elections were generally a contest between Conservatives and Labour

• 2024: 13 parties contested and gained seats

How did ABC1 vote in the 2024 election?

• 36% Labour

• 25% Conservative

• 14% LibDem

• 11% Reform

According to YouGov

How did C2DE vote in the 2024 election?

• 33% Labour

• 23% Conservatives

• 20% Reform

• 11% LibDem

Which class was most likely to vote Labour?

Joint AB and C1 - 36%

Which class was most likely to vote Conservative?

AB - 27%

Which class was most likely to vote LibDem?

AB - 15%

Which class was most likely to vote Reform UK?

C2 - 20%

Who are ‘left behind’ voters?

• Groups of voters who feel left behind by the UK social and economic reforms of the last 50 years

• Feel this is for the worse

Who do ‘left behind’ voters tend to be?

• Economically left wing but culturally right

• Older

• White

• Financially poorer

• Less educated (~GCSE)

• Living in deprived areas outside major cities

Who were the ‘left behind voters’ in 2015?

• Working class people who would’ve usually voted Labour

• Felt alienated from Labour

  • Cultural concerns (e.g. immigration, income inequality)

  • Perception that politics is dominated by the socially liberal, educated and urban elite

• Instead, gravitated to UKIP

What are the arguments that the class system DOES still matter in UK politics? (4)

• Issues of tax and benefits still a key distinction between the two majors

• Many voters still identify with a party based on their perceived class

• Geographic voting trends still reflect relative wealth and class make-up of a region or constituency

• Class inequality and lack of social mobility still remains a major concern for many voters

What are the arguments that the class system DOES NOT still matter in UK politics? (4)

• Major issues cross class divisions

• Size and role of the working class has declined by more than half

• Increasing property ownership and improved education make it more difficult to categorise classes

• Successful parties have to appeal across a wide range of issues, not just those relating to class

Landslide victory for one party

1997 (Labour): biggest landslide victory since WW2

A clear discrepancy between number of votes and seats gained

2015 (Conservatives)

• UKIP won 12.6% of the vote but 1 seat

• SNP won just 4.7% of the vote and 56 seats

• Stark contrast

Large numbers of voters being effectively disenfranchised by the preponderance of voters for one party in large areas of the country

2015 (Conservative)

• SNP landslide in Scotland (56/59 seats) with nearly 50% of Scottish vote, third largest in UK Parliament

• Over 50% voted against but it received 95% of Scottish seats in the Commons

• Scottish voters who did not support the SNP could claim to be effectively disenfranchised, as their votes did not translate into representation