Armed Conflict: Russia and Ukraine War

Historical causes of armed conflict

• long history of russian rule over Ukraine

• resentment from Russia following the collapse of the USSR

• Putin’s belief that Russians and Ukraines are “one people”, leading to a refusal to accept Ukrainian sovereignty

Social and Cultural causes of armed conflict

• divisions between Ukrainian- speaking West and Russia- speaking East

• Kremlin’s narratives of “protecting Russian speakers” and “denazification”

• conflicting interpreations of shared history and identity divisions that create tension and mistrust

political causes of armed conflict

• fears of NATO expansion by Russia - Ukraine wants membership to establish their sovereignty

• long-term geopoltical tensions

• competing political goals that increase mistrust (Russia’s desire for reigional dominance vs Ukraine’s shift toward Western insititutions)

Economic causes of armed conflict

• Ukraine’s control of key transit routes to the EU

• strategic value of Crimea’s water supply and Black sea access

• Ukraine’s potential energy reserves threatening Russia’s dominance

• Ukraine’s efforts to reduce economic dependence on Russia

Russian reponse to armed conflict FACT CHECK

• sees Ukraines’ potential NATO or EU membership as a direct threat to Russian national interest

• chosen to use military power as a foreign policy intrument to stop this and claim Ukraine as “naturally” part of Russian territory

• Kremlin releases statements to justify the war by claiming it as a “necessary action to protect Russian interests”

US response to armed conflict

• Largest military donor in Ukraine - $75 billion in weapons

• led NATO reinforcement of the eastern flank

• coordinated global sanctions with the EU

• “the us and its partners have delievered a broad range of assistance at a historic speed”- Biden

• Stopped imports of Russian energy

Polish response to armed conflict

• advocates strongly for stricter sanctions on russia to its allies

• allocates about 4.5% of it GDP to defence - one of the higest in NATO

• absorbed millions of Ukrainian refugees

• Rzeszow-Jasoinka airport became NATO’s main transit point for weapons, ammunition, and humanitariam supplies entering Ukraine

  • describes by the Pentagon as the “lifeline” of Ukraine’s defence

• stopped Russian gas imports - accelerated construction of the Baltic pipe to replace Russian supply

role of identity divisons in armed conflict

Identity divisions between Ukrainian-speaking and Russian-speaking populations created tension and mistrust, which Russia exploited to justify its involvement in the conflict.

Russian perspective on Armed Conflict

• necessary measure to protect ethnic Russians, and secure its borders from NATO

• “no other option”- Putin

• “Russian and Ukrainians are one-people- a single whole.. it is what I firmly believe” - Putin (2021)

• “denazify” and “demilitarise”- Kremlin

US perspective on armed conflict

Sees defending Ukraine as essential to protecting democracy, and deterring authoritarian aggression

• “We will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes, because the stakes of the war go far beyond Ukraine” - Biden (2022)

• US National security strategy (2022): Russia’s invasion is a “direct threat to European global security”

European Union Response to armed conflict

• provided 10.6 billion pounds in weapons through European Peace Facility

• Imposed 19 sanctions packages on Russia

• Activated the Temporary Protection Directive (Mar 2022)

  • granting over 4 million ukrainian refugees residency rights, access to healthcare, education, and employment, and freedom of movement throughout EU

• Granted Ukraine EU candiate status in june 2022 (formally recognises Ukraine as future member of the EU)

EU Perspective on Armed Conflict

sees invasion as a threat to European stability, sovereignty

believes that protecting Ukraine protects democracy and prevents russian aggression from spreading into Europe

• “Ukraine belongs to the European family”- EU Council (2022)

• EU sanction statements describe Russia’s invasion as a “fundamental change to European peace and security”

• “the future of ukraine lies within the EU"- European Council

Russian Orthodox Church response to armed conflict

• Patriarch Kirill approved a decree offically declaring the invasion a “holy war”

  • states that Russian soldiers who die fighting in Ukraine will be “spiritually cleansed” and have all their “sins forgiven”

• employing military chaplains to boost morale and coax reluctant men into the combat

• dozens of ROC priests have been exiled or prosecuted under Russia’s strict censorship laws for expressing anti-war views - over 200 signed a open letter condeming the invasion

Russian Orthodox Church perspective on armed conflict

• frames the war as a spiritual struggle aligning with the Kremlin’s narrative

• supports the idea of protecting “historic Russian lands”

• frames the conflict as a metaphysical “holy war” against the west and defence of “holy Russia”

Impact of Russia’s interest on the crisis

• Seeks control over ukraine and take it into Russian territory

  • “true sovereignty of Ukraine is only possible in partnership with Russia - Putin (2021)

• Russia wants access to Ukraine’s natural resources and key transit routes to the Eu

  • “connected mainland russia to the annexed penninsula, creating logistic arterty for the Kremlin’s forces”- CSIS, 2023

• interest in Ukraine’s territory and resources has driven them to use military force to claim Ukrainian territory as Russia

elements to consider of impact of interests on crisis

• What does the actor want? (their interests)

• How does that impact the issue? (usually, what does it cause the actor to do?)

impact of US interest in the crisis

• seeks to deter other powers (like China) from aggressive territorial expansion by weakening a major geopolitical opponent like Russia

  • “we want to see Russia weakened to the degree it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine” - US defence secratary Lloyd Austin (2022)

• protecting American economic and cooperate investments in Ukraine- sending military technology and aid without committing American troops to the conflict

  • “we will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. Direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is WW3”- Biden (2022)

impact of NATO’s interest on armed conflict

• preventing further Russian aggression into Europe and maintaing post WWII security

  • “The most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic Area”- NATO (2023)

• “a strong Ukraine is key to stopping Putin from ever thinking about attacking a NATO country”- NATO secratary Mark Rutte (2023)

• involvement has altered the conflict by provided crucial military, and intelligence

  • allies provided over 40 billion per year

  • Ukrainian officals confirmed that 90% of advanced missile for Ukraine’s air defence grid have been supplied through NATO alliance

Impact of the Media’s interest in armed conflict

• drives international political and humanitarian support, fuels coordinated state propaganda and disinformation campaigns

• influences public morale

• both states in the conflict have used the media as an active battlefield

• russian state campaigns “purposefully confuse and undermine credible information from foreign sources” according to OECD report on Information Manipulation

• Kremlin have used AI to produce misleading narratives quickly

  • over 19,000 AI articles per month

Diplomacy attempts to address armed conflict

• Global peace summit

• Prisoner exchanges

• International Law

• ICJ

Global Peace Summit on Ukraine (2024) evidence

• attended by 92 states and 8 IGOs

• 80 countries and 4IGOs initally signed the joint delcaration at the end of the event

• “If Russia was interested in peace, there would be no war… we must decide together what peace means for the world.. then it will be communicated to Russia”- Zelenskyy

• “we must speak truth: Putin is not calling for negotiations, he is calling for surrender”- Kamala Harris

• Russia did not particiapte, so no real progress was made

State Accountability through the International Court of Justice attempt to resolve armed conflict

• Ukraine sued Russia immediately after the 2022 invasion arguing that Russia violated the 1948 Genocide Convention by using fake allegation of genocide in Luhansk and Donetsk as a pretext for war

• ICJ issues a binding “provisional measure” ordering Russia to immediately suspend its military operations, but Russia ignored it

• the ruling stripped Russia of its legal pretext and officially designated the invasion as a “violation of international law”

Challenges to the resolution of the crisis

• National interests of states

• Injustice and accountibility problems

national interests of states as a challenge to resolution

• Ukraine is demanding the full restoration of its borders to restore its national security

  • also wants NATO membership to guarantee future security

• Russia is demanding Ukraine demilitarise

  • Putin claims Russia’s goal it to “demilitarise and denazify” which is a direct threat to Ukraine’s national security

  • suggestive of future Russian intent to restart its war

• State’s attempts to broker peace often reflects their own national interests rather than present a viable pass to peace

  • e.g. China’s 12 point plan (2023) and US peace talks (2025)

Injustice and Accountibility Problems as a challenge to resolution

• Ukraine feels a strong sense of injustice

  • Russia has violated the UN charter by using force to invade its soveriegnty borders and occupy its territory

  • Russia has committed war crimes against Ukrainians and interrupted millions of lives

    • Makes Ukraine less willing to settle on peace terms that doesn’t include punishment of Russia

• Russia has little incentive to agree to peace knowing this wil start deep investigation and potential prosecution of Russian leaders and war crimes perpetrators

Consequences of the crisis for political stability

• UN General Assembly Vote on Russia’s withdrawal (2023)

• US-Ukraine Minerals deal (2023)

Consequences of the crisis for political change

• US- Ukraine Mineral Deal

• Russian Strike and Western Response

UN General Assembly Vote on Russia’s Withdrawal (2023)

• represents a collective international effort to uphold the post- WWII status quo, specifically the principles of sovereignty, and international laws set out in the UN Charter

• 141 countries voted in favour of Resolution to preserve the existing international order and restrict territorial changes made by military force

• resolution called for “comprehensive, just and lasing peace in Ukaine”

• Vetoed by russia in the security council

US-Ukraine Minerals deal consequence on political stability

• serves as a mechanism to stabilise Ukraine’s long-term soveriegn existence and integrate its economy into Western frameworks

• ensures it will not fall under Russian autocratic control

• according to Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) the agreement, “enshrines US support for peace, resilience, soveriegnty, and reconstruction in Ukraine”

US-Ukraine Minerals deal consequence on political change

• Ukraine must now contribute 50% of all royalties, licence fees, and rent payments generated from any new natural resource projects directly into the joint investment fund

• Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) point out this agreement “marks the beginning of a strategic shift in how Washington approaches post-conflict reconstruction through investment rather than traditional aid”

Russian Strike and Western Response consequences for political change

• due to continuous russian misile and drone strike on critical infrastrucutre, Ukraine lost nealry half of its power generation capacity, forcing the state to operate on 1/3 of its pre-war electricity capacity

• UN officials have stated that the “weapons being deployed, cheap and deadly, are rapidly changing what it means to deliver life-saving assistance”

• many countries have now chosen to abandon pacific policies like germany

  • pacifism meaning principled opposition to war and violence

NATO response to armed conflict

• “unprecedented levels of military assistance”

• changed membership numbers

  • Sweden, Finland have now joined the alliance

• activated defence plans by sending troops and equipment to frontline states