2017 general elections

Long term factors

Age

Gender

Ethnicity

Class

Brexit

Class

What was the most important long term factor

Age - principal demographic division

Brexit

What was the least singificant long term factor

Class

Who was most likely to vote for Conservtaives

Brexit

Age

Gender

Ethnicity

Class

Brexit:

Leaver most likely to vote conservative

60% v 15%

Gained 57% of UKIP voters

Age:

Over 65+ most likely to vote conservative

60% v 23%

Gender:

Men most likely to vote conservative but by a slim margin

Ethnicity:

White voters most likely to vote conservative - 80% of their votes

6 point increase from BME votes

Class: fewer education opportunities - working class voted for Conservatives - +12 points

Who was most likely to vote for Labour

Brexit

Age

Gender

Ethnicity

Class

Brexit:

Remain voters most likely to vote Labour

51% v 25%

gained 18% of UKIP voters

Age:

younger voters most likely to vote labour

67% v 18%

They were more supported and active role - made proposals for pledges in Labour manifesto (abolition of tuition fees)

Gender:

Women were most likely to vote for Labour but by a slim margin

Ethnicity:

BME most likely to vote labour - gained 10 points - led 54 points

Did increase their number of white voters as well - gained 8.5 points - led 60 points

Leadership of Theresa May before Election Campaign

• calm, sensible “ safe pair of hand”

• One of the highest net approval rating recorded

• Strong - a new “iron lady”

Leadership of Jeremy Corbyn before Election Campaign

• unsuitabke

• Characterised as a new Michael foot in media

• Lowest net approval rating (-42 v 60 point lead)

Leadership of Theresa May after Election Campaign

• Robotic image - strong and stable government

• lowest net approval rating

• Division between her public advisors

Leadership of Jeremy Corbyn before Election Campaign

• July 2017: corbyn net approval +9 compared to -26

• Supporters chanted “Oh Jeremy Corbyn”

What is an opinion poll

a survey of public opinion taken from a sample of the population

a form of media

Main Conservative Policies

Brexit

Healthcare

Economy

Immigration

Consumer

Environment

Brexit:

• practical: no deal is better than bad deal - gained support of hardline brexiters

Healthcare:

• practical: increase spending of NHS to £8Bn

Economy:

• Restore public finances by 2025

• Ditch Osbourne’s pledge to increase NI and income tax

Consumer:

• Scrap free lunches - key LibDem development

• build 500k new homes by 2022

Environment

• support fracking

• meet 2050 carbon reduction

Main Labour policies

Brexit

Healthcare

Economy

Immigration

Consumer

Environment

Brexit

• took no strong stance on Brexit

Healthcare

• increase NHS spending to £30Bn (funding by top 5% earners)

• reduce waiting lists by 1m

Economy

• no rises in income tax for those earning below £80,000

• nationalise rail industries (cap fares) -60% supported

• New national investment in banks

Consumer

• scrap tuition fees

• free school meals for all school children

Environment

• ban fracking

• commitment to Clean Air Act

Key Points of Theresa May Campaign Strategy

• Refused to participate in head-to-head debates

• wooden/ un-natural in interviews

• Mistakes: Dementia Tax, commitment to grammar school; triple lock on pensions

• Spoke to small groups in closed spaces

• Law and order worries - 2 terrorist attacks (Manchester and London Borough) - poor handling by the Home Office

Cuts in policing - as homes secretary

Summarise the key events of the Dementia Tax

Summarise the key event on the triple lock on pensions

Jeremy Corbyn - Key Electoral Campaign notes

• May 2017 - took part in 2 head-to head debates with amber Rudd as a replacement of Theresa May

• Spoke to large enthusiastic crowds

How does a snap election impact electoral campaigns

• Less events

• Less high-profile - no build up