Gov 370E Theriault Midterm #1

Congress of Confederation

• Pre-Constitution

• Unicameral

Congress of Confederation — How did the chamber function? What was a major function they were in charge of?

• Unicameral

• 2-7 representatives from each state

• Appointed by state legislature

• Each rep. had 1 vote

• Each rep. served no more than 3 yeas within a 6 year period

• Elected a president for their chamber who served 1 year in any of their 3 years

Similarities between Congress of Confederation and Modern Congress

• 1 vote per state

• Elect a speaker

• States have different numbers of members

Constitution — Article 1. Who can run for HoR?

• 25+

• Citizen for 7 years

• 2 year terms

• Have to reside in state on day of election (NOT district) (Someone in Houston could run in Austin)

Constitution — Article 1. HoR Term Limits

• 2 year terms

• No term limit

Constitution — Article 1. Who can vote in HoR elections?

Anyone who can vote federally can vote in HoR election

Constitution — Article 1. HoR Vaccancies

• Replacement only through special elections

  • Must be called by state governor/election official

• No temporary appointment

  • Seat stays empty until special election

Constitution — Article 1. Who can run for Senate?

• 30+ years old

• 9 year citizen

• Resident on election day

Constitution — Article 1. Senate Term Limits

• 6 year term

  • Staggered (Only 1/3 active at a time)

• No term limit

Constitution — Article 1, 7th Amendment. Senate Vacancies

• Governors can make temporary appointments OR can run a special election

  • Few states require special elections

  • Some states require appointed senator be of the same party as the one who left

Constitution — Article 1. How are election disputes handled (both Senate and HoR)

The people within the respective chamber decide who wins

What is Reapportionment? How does it work? (Article 1, Section 3)

• Decides how many seats each state gets

• Decided based on census every 10 years

  • 1 rep per 30k people (no longer applies, capped at 435 seats)

• When reapportionment happens, redistricting happens

Which chamber is directly affected by reapportionment? Why?

Only HoR is affected by reapportionment

• Decided based on state population, unlike Senate where every state has 2 senators

What is Redistricting? How does it work?

• The restructuring of congressional districts

• Supposed to happen every 10 years

• Districts should have as close to even numbers of people as possible within the same state

Gerrymandering

• Drawing districts in an attempt to get certain outcomes

• Supreme court decides when gerrymandering is actually gerrymandering

Packing

• Putting as many people within the same unwanted party into one district as possible (TX 37/Lauren Pena’s district)

• No voice from unwanted demographic

• Intended demographic wins due to unwanted demographic having no chance in other fully packed districts

Cracking

• Breaking apart a party across multiple districts where they are the minority

• No interference from the unwanted demographic

• Slightly more risky, small chance for members of intended majority to not vote in the expected way

• unwanted demographic is fractured into districts where they are the minority in comparison

Stacking

• Wants some input from unwanted demographic, but still heavily favors the other

• Much riskier than Packing or Cracking

• Unwanted demographic has a voice

• Works best and is made for when the intended demographic is the minority

Texas v California National Redistricting Story

• Texas redistricts in 2020 after Trump called Abbott

  • Some house republicans were hesitant due to heightened competitiveness within their district

  • Significantly lessened democrat influence

• California redistricts in retaliation

  • lessens republican influence'

• Band wagoning happens nationally

  • Alabama, Missouri, N. Carolina, Tennessee, Utah

  • Some states were forced into gerrymandering after supreme court claimed their districts were racially based and, therefore, illegal (Louisiana, Ohio)

What is the public opinion of Gerrymandering?

Bad.

Federalists 52-53 — How long should a House term be?

• Madison argues 2 years

  • Perfect balance between public accountability & legislative competence

Federalists 52-53 — How does Madison justify the 2 year HoR terms creating balance? (5 reasons)

• Single state laws are less complex

• Fed. government handles FP

• Travel + Accommodations (traveling by horse to every single year for meetings would be evil)

• Yearly elections lead to oversight (Corrupt politicians have less time to get caught)

• 2 years gives just enough time for politicians to remain detached but not enough to become tyrannical

Federalist 62-63 — Why create a Senate?

P.O.I.S.E

• Patriotism & pride (Breeds patriotism through a sense of national character & collective pride)

• Overtime perspective (Longer term timeframe gives more time between terms to consider issues)

• Institutional stability (6-year staggered terms ensure laws will not suddenly change with brief changes in public mood)

• Security checks (Provides double security through checks & balances)

• Emotional barrier (Stops sudden passions and resists waves of national anger/excitement)

What Congress are we currently in? What/When was the last congress? When was the 1st congress?

119th Congress (2024)

• 118th, 2022

• 1st, 1788

What happens to the majority in congressional chambers between presidencies?

Majority flips to the opposing side of the president

ex:

• Trump gets voted in 2016, Congress majority is Republican

• Midterm elections happen, democrats take majority

• Democrats gain bigger majority when Biden gets elected in 2020

Which house has a the bigger majority? Why?

HoR has a bigger majority than the Senate. It is harder to flip the senate than the HoR because the senate relies on a state-wide vote & only 1/3 of the senate is up for election at a time

What is a major conflict in Ohio elections?

Data centers

What are the 2 rules for congressional elections?

1. Incumbent wins (99% of the times, which is worrying)

2. President’s party loses seats (in HoR)

Why are democrats more easily gerrymandered?

Democrats tend to congregate in big cities

How are the 2026 special elections going?

• Republicans are struggling

  • 6.6 points worse than the 2024 elections

• Democrats are doing amazing in comparison

  • 10.4 point improvement

Why should we take voting data from special elections with a grain of salt?

Special elections have lower voter turnout

• Gives more weight to those who are more enthusiastic to vote

• Midterms have a broader electorate

How many total democratic congressional districts are there?

205

How many Republican congressional districts are there total?

209

What are the 2 rules for Senate elections?

• Incumbents win

• They get less seats in the next election cycle

In the districts that Kamala won in 2024, how many would the democrats have to win to get senat majority?

All of them up to the 43.3% point

What has the special elections shown us about who is overperforming? Why? By how much?

Democrats are overperforming by almost 11% due to higher voter enthusiasm and the historical midterm trend of the opposing party of the president overperforming in the midterms

How is Trump’s approval rating?

Significantly lower than when he was elected (Under 40%)

Who won the South Carolina Runoff?

Alan Wilson

Who currently controls the House

Republicans

Who currently controls the Senate?

Republicans

What is science?

The accumulation of knowledge

What are dependent variables in political science?

The outcome, effect, or behavior that the researcher is trying to explain

What are the independent variables in political science?

The individuals within the government institutions and the rules that guide them

What are the 6 steps of scientific method?

1. Define the study (Did you vote for a republican?)

2. Develop a hypothesis (You’re more likely to be republican if you’re christian)

3. Gather data (run survey asking is people are christian, if they voted republicans, & other key questions)

4. Match the data to the hypothesis (excel spreadsheet)

5. Revise hypothesis (You’re more likely to be republican if you are christian and caucasian)

6. Becomes a law of political science when your result is pristine & solidified

What is the definition of a law in the study of political science? What are other examples of laws in this sense?

Something that has become known fact within the study (The law of the conservation of energy, the law of inertia, the laws of gravity)

MOC = SMSR

Members of Congress = Single Minded Seekers of Reelection

Aside from reelection, what are the other goals of Members of Congress?

• Pass good public policy

• Gain more prestige within the institution

• Serve the majority party

Where does reelection fit into the priorities for Members of Congress? Why?

• Reelection is the main goal for members of Congress

  • Necessary to achieve secondary goals (passing good public policy, gaining more prestige within the institution, serving the majority party)

What are the 3 activities for Members of Congress? Describe each one

1. Advertise themselves and their campaign (creating brand/name recognition)

2. Credit Claim (convince actors that they (congress members) personally had a hand in something the government did that is perceived as positive)

3. Position Taking (having an opinion on topics the public is concerned about)

What does Mayhew say congress members must be cautious about when position taking?

They must be careful to not have voting patterns that are too broad. Attempting to appeal to too many audiences may cause them to lose trust in their core constituents.

Define ‘Particularized Benefits’

Specific advantages and services distributed by the government

What are the 2 properties of particularized benefits?

1. Each benefit is given to a single individual, group, or geographical constituency

• The scale of the recipient must be small enough for a single Member of Congress to recognized and realistically claimed

2. Each benefit is given out in an apparently ad hoc fashion to make the congress person seem like they played a massive role

• Ad Hoc Fashion: Handling an immediate problem with a temporary or improvised solution instead of a pre-planned systemic approach

What type of accomplishment should Members of Congress focus on during Credit Claiming?

Individual Accomplishments

Mayhew — What 7 qualities should congress members emphasize during advertising?

1. Experience

2. Knowledge

3. Responsiveness

4. Concern

5. Sincerity

6. Independence

What is Mayhew’s opinion on name recognition?

“To be perceived at all is to be perceived favorably”

What facilities do members of congress have to aid their campaign process?

• Offices

• Committees

• Parties

Mayhew — Why are offices so beneficial for congress members?

• offices act as both management firms & political machines

  • Management : Constant staff availability

  • Political Machine: Casework capabilities

Mayhew — Why are committees so beneficial for congress members?

• Can be good platforms for position taking

• Some committees bring a lot of particularized benefits

  • function under universalism

• Allows congress members to divide labor amongst each other

  • makes credit claiming easier

Mayhew — What is universalism?

Congress members working together to get bills on to the floor despite their party affiliations

Mayhew — Why are parties so beneficial for members of congress?

• Act as an organizational apparatus to sort electoral ideals

• Provide leadership hierarchies

• Help further name/brand recognition

What is the correlation between facilities congress has to help get reelected and the reelection rate of incumbents?

The 3-part structure of offices committees, and parties is the absolute optimal system to promote their reelection.

What are the goals of the president for each term?

1st Term — Reelection

2nd Term — Legacy

What is currently President Trump’s legacy?

• Extravagance in architecture (ballroom, gold plating, etc.)

• Stop nuclear weapon production in the middle east

• Continuation of the MAGA movement

What are the goals for Bureaucrats?

• Lower interference

• More freedom & ability to do their job as they see fit

What are the goals of Supreme Court Justices?

• Legacy

• Do NOT worry about reelection

What are the goals of parties?

• Winning elections

• Winning the majorities in Congress

What are the duties of Members of Congress?

• Represent their constituents

• Legislative (develop policy, vote on policy, etc.)

• Oversee other institutions

• Be good party members

Why study congress over other things?

• Understanding motivations (predicting political behavior)

• Gathering and understanding data (Elections give major data more often than other 4 year elections)

• Easier to understand constitutional framework

• Most representative of the nation within a certain timeframe

• More members to study

• More districts to study

Mayhew — What does Expected Incumbent Differential mean?

The difference between what incumbents may do if they return to office vs. what the opposition would do

Mayhew — What is the most vital campaign resource?

Money

Mayhew — Should Congresspeople’s behavior be categorized as maximizing behavior? Why or why not?

No

• The goal is to stay in office, not maximize votes

• Congressmen act in an area of high uncertainty

  • Experimenting risks irritating their voters

  • They already won twice (general + primary), if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it

How many committees are currently active in Congress?

40 committees

How many committees are currently in the House?

20 standing committees, 2 select committees

How many committees are currently in the Senate?

16 standing committees, 4 select committees

How many joint committees are there currently?

4 joint committees

What is a standing committee?

A committee that is permanent

What is a select committee?

A committee that is temporary and that is used for specific tasks and investigations

Which do modern campaigns focus more on: Candidates or Party? What impact does this have on the candidates?

Candidates, despite the power of national influences

• National party organizations have majorly expanded efforts to recruit and finance campaigns but are still dependent on individual politicians to win

• Individual candidates take on most of the risks, pains, and rewards of campaigning

What was a major concern about the constitutional framework for congress? Why?

Representation

• Big States: Want representative numbers to be decided by population

• Small States: Worried they’ll be drowned out if representative numbers are decided on population, wanted equal reps for each state

What bigger issue did the concerns about determining the number of seats for legislature raise?

Should the government be a national one and represent national citizenry, or should it be a federal one representing sovereign states?

What was the Great Compromise for the legislature?

Bicameral Legislature

• House of Representatives will be based on population as to satisfy bigger states

• Senate will consist of 2 senators from every state to satisfy smaller states

What year was the membership cap for the HoR established?

1910

What was the 1920 Census Crisis? What was the result of it?

1920 Census Crisis : Lots of people moved to big cities between 1910-1920, meaning seat losses would be majorly skewed towards urban areas

Result: 1929 decision to reapportion after each census

What did the 1964 Wesberry v. Sanders case establish?

1 person, 1 vote — voting district populations must be as close to one another as possible

What was the criticism against non-citizens (especially latinos) from conservatives? Did the 2016 supreme court agree or disagree?

Only eligibile voters should be counted in reapportionment calculations, not the actual population

• Shut down by 2016 supereme court

What did the Trump admin try to do change about the 2020 census? Why? What did the Supreme Court say in response?

2018: Trump admin tried to get 2020 census to ask about citizenship status

• Would discourage non-citizens from filling it out, which would affect democratic voters as non0citizens tend to lean towards the democratic party

2019: Supreme Court shuts that down because it was “done for disingenuous reasons”

After the Wesberry v. Sanders decision, what strategy was turned to instead?

Gerrymandering

Why is gerrymandering easier to calculate than to actually put into action?

Changes may conflict with other political necessities (ex: changing the voting demographic for incumbents)

1986 Davis v. Bandemer

Egregious partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional

2002 Vieth v. Jubelirer

Supreme Court cannot block partisan/political gerrymandering because there is no clear rule to decide when a political map goes too far, but left the door open for future gerrymandering attempts

What happened in 2004 regarding the Vieth v. Jubelirer case?

Supreme Court rejects a challenge to the case, upholding the decision

2019 Rucho v. Common Cause

Federal court have no power is reviewing partisan gerrymandering, resulting in states doing what they wanted after 2020 census

What happened in 2002 when Colorado tried to redistrict early?

Blocked by Supreme Court due to an in-state law saying they can only redistrict every 10 years

What is the story of the 2002 Texas redistricting?

• Texas successfully gets permission to redistrict in favor of republicans

• Democrats try to stop it by fleeing en masse twice (to New Mexico and Oklahoma) to prevent legislative action

• Democrat retaliation fails after 5 months and 2 special elections

What was the goal of 2006 Citizens v. Perry? What actually came of it?

Goal: To challenge the Texas mid-decade redistricting saying that the partisan redistrict diluted the voting power of latinos (voting rights act violation)

Result: Forced Texas to draw new district lines that do not violate VRA, resulting in a much more levels and fair playing field

1986 Thornburg v. Gingles

Resulted in the Voting Rights Act

Voting Rights Act (VRA)

• Established by 1986 Thornburg v. Gingles court case

• You cannot discriminate against racial minorities by interfering with the power of their vote, even unintentionally

What still happens despite the 1986 Thornburg v. Gingles court case ruling?

Racial gerrymandering, which is much more effective than partisan gerrymandering

1993 Shaw v Reno

Creating weird shaped districts to concentrate minority voters may violate the constitutional rights of white voters

What resulted from the 1995 Miller v. Johnson court case?

Race cannot be a major factor in deciding district lines due to constitution’s guarantee to equal protections

• Resulted in a multitude of districts being considered unconstitutional