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Natural change, (increase/decrease) rate
The change in population, growth or decline, resulting from the difference between births and deaths. NI occurs when births exceed deaths
What is the world average natural change rate?
1.03%
Named example of a country with natural decrease
Japan -0.2%
Named example of country with high rates of natural increase
Niger 3.6%
UK natural change rate
0.5%
Birth rate
The number of live births in a single year per 1,000 people in the total population of a country or region
What is the world average birth rate?
18/1000
Death rate
The number of deaths recorded in a single year per 1,000 people in the total population of a country or region
What is the world average death rate?
8/1000
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
The average number of live births to women who have completed their families. (Replacement level of fertility is around 2.1)
What is the world average Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?
2.4, (was 5 in 1963)
Which country has the lowest Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?
Singapore, 0.8
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
The number of children dying in their first year per 1,000 live births
What is the world average Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)?
30/1000
Which country has the lowest Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)?
Japan, 1.9/1000
Which country has the highest Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)?
Afghanistan, 104/1000, (poor, war torn, less investment in sanitation and healthcare)
What is the UK's Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)?
4.1/1000
Life Expectancy
The average number of years from birth that a person can expect to live, or the average age of people at death
What is the world average life expectancy?
70 years
Which country has the highest life expectancy?
Monaco, 90 years
Which country has the lowest life expectancy?
Afghanistan, 52, (very poor, disaster prone, war torn)
What is the UK life expectancy?
81 years
Example of country with high net migration
Italy, 3.2/1000
Example of country with low net migration
Ghana, -1.6/1000
Net Migration
The difference between immigration into and emigration from the area during the year.
What does the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) show?
Population change over time
Name a country in stage 2 on the DTM
Niger
Name a country in stage 3 on the DTM
Ghana
Name a country in stage 4 on the DTM
The UK
Name a country in stage 5 on the DTM
Japan
What are vital rates?
Refer to how fast vital statistics change in a population (birth rates, deaths rates, migration)
3. Reasons for inaccurate censuses
1. Expensive to administer
2. Illiteracy
3. Not everyone will fill in the forms
3. Reasons why DRs may increase in the future?
1. Diseases and outbreaks
2. Famine
3. Wars
Population prediction for 2030
8.5 billion (according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation)
Population prediction for 2050
9.7 billion (according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation)
What is the problem with the prediction for population in sub-Saharan Africa?
Current forecast is based on current vital rates (BR and DR), and assumes war, famine and disease can be avoided
Do migration rates change rapidly or slowly?
Rapidly (e.g. war, rise in terrorism, activities of people smugglers)
Do migrants tend to reduce BRs or increase BRs?
Migrants tend to boost BRs (young adult migrants)
Did the BR in the UK increase or decrease between 2001 and 2011? Was this change predicted?
The BR increased, no this change was not predicted
Why is fertility in sub-Saharan Africa falling much more slowly than it did in Asia? (3 Reasons)
1. Many women still desire large families
2. Children provide status and social security
3. Asian governments were much more proactive about encouraging and pointing out the benefits of family planning, (unlike African governments)
What is the impact of a recession on BRs?
Birth Rates will fall
Factors affecting levels of fertility (7 factors)
1. Level of development / basis of economy
2. Levels of infant and child mortality
3. Traditional vs modern attitudes
4. Role of religion
5. Access to, take up of, contraception
6. Years in education, literacy levels, particularly of women.
7. Government policy
Factors affecting levels of mortality (12 factors)
1. Age
2. Gender
3. Level of development
4. Living conditions
5. Access to food
6. Government campaigns
7. Better education
8. Healthcare provision
9. Prevalence of certain diseases
10. Physical environment
11. Conflict/war
12. Lifestyle
How does a fall in BR affect the population pyramid?
It reduces the breadth of the pyramid's base (becomes "regressive")
How does a fall in DR affect the population pyramid?
Leads to an upwards stretching of the pyramid (life expectancy is greater)
Population Structure
The composition of the population in a country/area, (usually age and gender (may include information on ethnicity, marital status, family or household size)
What % of the world population is aged 0-14?
25.33%
What % of the world population is aged 15-24?
15.42%
What % of the world population is aged 25-54?
40.67%
What % of the world population is aged 55-64?
9.09%
What % of the world population is aged 65+?
9.49%
What is the world median age?
31 years old
Dependency
Reliance for survival on support from others
Dependency ratio
Relationship between the economically-active and non economically-active population. ,(the active (independent) population is usually taken as 15-64, young dependent 0-14 and aged dependent 65+)
Formula for the dependency ratio is...
youth (0-14) + aged (65+) divided by working population (15-64) multiplied by 100
Youth dependency ratio
The ratio of the number of people 0-14 to those 15-64, (globally this is 39:100)
Elderly dependency ratio
The ratio of the number of people aged 65 and over to those aged 15-64, (globally this is 14:100)
Potential support ratio
The number of working-age people (15-64) per one elderly person (65+), (globally this is 7:1)
Demographic transition
The shifting balance between fertility an mortality over time and its impact on rates of population change
Carrying capacity
The number of individuals that the environment can sustain
Population momentum
Occurs when a country's fertility rate declines to or below replacement level, yet the population size continues to grow due to the age structure of the population
Social and economic factors contributing to high rates of infectious diseases in LICs (5 points)
1. Poverty
2. Poor access to healthcare
3. Antibiotic resistance
4. Evolving human migration patterns
5. New infectious agents
Natural Increase Rate
The difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths occurring in a year, divided by the mid-year population of that year, multiplied by a factor (usually 1,000). It is equal to the difference between the crude birth and the crude death rate
Sex ratio
The number of males per 100 females in a population (2014 - 107 boys to 100 girls globally)
Criticisms of the Demographic Transition Model (3 points)
1. Too Eurocentric
2. Doesn't account for migration
3. Presumes all countries will pass through all stages
Issues of ageing populations (4 points)
1. Increased pressure on services (healthcare, pensions, government budget)
2. Expensive residential care
3. Labour shortages
4. Lower taxation received by gov.
Issues of youthful population (4 points)
1. Strain on education and health services
2. Strain on food supplies
3. Strain on accommodation
4. Lack of available jobs in the future
Human Development Index (HDI) (4 points)
1. Life expectancy at birth
2. Mean years of schooling for adults aged 25 years
3. Expected years of schooling for children of school entering age
4. GNI per person (PPP)
Factors responsible for decline in global infant mortality (5 points)
1. Improved nutrition
2. Improvements to public health (water and sanitation)
3. Medical advances
4. Improved housing and other environmental conditions
5. Improved maternity conditions
Neonatal period
The first four weeks of a child's life, where risk of death is the greatest
Global average life expectancy in 1900
C. 30 years
Food security
When all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life
3 strands of food security
1. Food availability
2. Food access
3. Food use
Threats of the food crisis (3 points)
1. Poverty
2. Eroding development gains
3. Endangering political stability
Natural causes of food shortages (6 points)
1. Soil exhaustion
2. Drought
3. Flood
4. Tropical cyclones
5. Pests
6. Disease
Economic and Political causes of food shortages (4 points)
1. Low capital investment
2. Rapidly rising populations
3. Poor distribution / transport difficulties
4. Conflict situations
Consequences of malnutrition (3 points)
1. Less resistant to disease
2. Reduces capacity to work (e.g. land may not be properly tended)
3. People don't reach their physical potential
What percentage of food grown and harvested in LICs is not consumed?
50%
Advantages of the Green Revolution (5 points)
1. Greater yields (2 to 4 times higher)
2. Shorter growing season leads to extra crop
3. Farming incomes have increased
4. Local infrastructure upgraded
5. Employment created
Disadvantages of the Green Revolution (7 points)
1. High inputs of fertiliser and pesticide
2. HYVs susceptible to pests and disease (more weed control required)
3. Low income farmers benefitted less
4. Mechanisation has increased rural unemployment
5. Some HYVs have inferior tastes
6. Salinisation has increased
7. HYVs can be low in minerals and vitamins
Factors affecting development
1. War
2. Trade barriers
3. Tropical storms / Flooding / Drought / Volcanic eruptions / Earthquakes
Components of the ecological footprint (6 points)
1. Built-up land
2. Fishing grounds
3. Forest
4. Grazing land
5. Cropland
6. Carbon footprint
Optimum rhythm of growth
The process whereby population growth responds to substantial technological advances
Population policy
All the measures explicitly or implicitly taken by a government aimed at influencing population size, growth, distribution, or composition