conflict and peace in asia

Wars in Asia since 1945

Chinese Civil War (Phase 1: 1927-1937), Phase 2 (1945-1949)

• KMT fled to taiwan

The Second World War in Asia

• Japan’s losses: 2.5 million military and civilians

  Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945)

  • Cost of war for China remains a subject of fierce debate - estimates range between 9,400,000 to 20,000,000 Chinese military and civilian dead from all causes between July 1937 and August 1945

    • Most of the war began in china

    • the year was 1937 or even earlier 1931

  • 60-95 million refugees

  • Second highest losses in WWII after USSR

  Japan’s war against US, British, Dutch (1941-1945)

  • US lost 106k dead 

  • Britain:  90k casualties

  • Commonwealth: 70k+ casualties

• Japan’s military power decisively defeated in WWII

  • it was the loss of Japanese power that was never regained

• Thereafter not viewed as a military threat

• Despite vast physical destruction, Japan remains the great industrial power of Asia … but loses its biggest market … China

• With US support, Japan rebuilds economy and expands outside of China

  • By 1980s, Japan rivals US economy

  • By 1990s, Japan’s economy falters – the new rising power becomes China 

asia in the early cold war

• 1950s-60

• defines the security map of asia

korean war

• communist power launches a war of aggression of non communist

• stalin forces n korea to attack s korea to take our mind way from rebuilding europe

• Casualties (killed + wounded): 4 million

  • 70% of deaths civilians

• Impact felt around the world

  • China intervenes

  • Fear that Soviet Union would take advantage and invade W. Europe

• Leads to:

  • US rearmament,

  • expansion of NATO,

  • defense of Taiwan,

    • fear that china will try to do the same in taiwan

  • support to French war in Indochina,

  • support to British fight in Malaya

• Creation of permanent US military presence in S. Korea

  • defacto peace but no peace treaty

• A technical state of war on Korean Peninsula still exists

UN command

• founded after n korea invade of s korea

• United Nations Command (UNC) was established on July 24, 1950

• Signifies the world’s first attempt at collective security under the United Nations system. 

• United Nations Security Council Resolutions 83 and 84 provided the international legal authority for member states to restore peace on the Korean Peninsula

• Designated the United States as the leader of the unified command we know as UN Command.

The end of the colonial empires

• British fight insurgency in Malaya in 1950s (labelled an Emergency); later fight in Borneo

• Dutch fight to regain control of Indonesia

• Despite military successes, combination of financial burden, external pressure leads both to reduce commitments/withdraw

  • no problem militarily. was about the external political pressure and financial burden

War in Indochina: 1946-1954

• France suffers important military defeat at Dien Bien Phu though technically/militarily remained superior to the Viet Minh forces

• Despite this, the costs of maintaining presence in Indochina are too high … France withdraws after 1954

• Vietnam split in two: Communist north and Non-Communist south pending national election

  • with the geneva settlement

• US supports government of South Vietnam/rejects effort for national election

• A superpower humbled —> us

• A new nation —→ vietnam at the cots of 2 mil dead

• 2 million dead

India-Pakistan Wars

• Three wars

  • 1947-1948 (Kashmir)

  • 1965 (Kashmir)

  • 1971 (E. Pakistan/Bangladesh)

  Combatant casualties amount to several thousand per side per war 

  Fourth war

  • 1999

    • Combatant casualties amount to 1,000

    • Both sides nuclear powers

  All wars characterized by low intensity and short duration

  • neither side wanted to escalate due to nuclear

Sino-Vietnamese War, February 1979

• turning point for conflict in asia

  • china invades vietname

• Labelled the “Self-Defensive Counterstrike against Vietnam” by China (对越自卫反击战)

• Labelled “the War against Chinese Expansionism” by Vietnam (Chiến tranh chống bành trướng Trung Hoa)

• Begins on 17 February 1979 with invasion by 220,000 Chinese troops

• Military action limited to ground war only

  • limited in time lasted 1 month

• War lasts one month following unilateral Chinese ceasefire

  • last time we see chinese military action in asia (1970s)

• Each side suffered roughly 30,000 deaths and 35,000 wounded

• Pre-war territorial status quo maintained

East Asian Peace Theory

• why no war in asia?

• As of 2025, there is war in the Middle East and war in Europe – why no war in Asia?

• From 1946-1979, East Asia accounted for roughly 80 percent of the world’s battle deaths

• Since 1979 Sino-Vietnamese war, countries in East Asia have enjoyed relative peace – no major interstate war, only minor conflicts, mostly internal (e.g. Myanmar)

  • interlinked econ and detterence

• How to explain?

  • ASEAN+ model of consultation/consensus-building, focus on trade, limited political integration (at least compared to EU)

  • Democratic peace theory doesn’t work since many countries are autocratic/semi-democratic

  • Deterrence?

• Spread of peace did not necessarily start in 1979 but it nevertheless serves as a useful marker with no major war since

• Spread of peace came about as a cumulative effect of a series of national priority shifts – governing elites decided to shift from ideological priorities to state-driven economic growth

• Most Asian states stabilize politically/economically after first decades of independence – internal opposition mostly evaporates

• Peace has always been fragile with nations still arming against each other, threatening each other, and making operational plans for war

  • will it last

• Will it last for several more decades or is it likely to come to an end?

Most Likely Future War Scenarios

• PRC vs. Taiwan (US intervention? Japan?)

• North vs. South Korea/US (Japan?)

• India vs. Pakistan

• India vs. PRC

• PRC vs. Philippines (US intervention?)

• PRC vs. Japan (US intervention?)

• PRC intervention in Myanmar

DESIGN THIS WAR:
People’s Republic of China invasion of Taiwan

• Your role: Use all the knowledge you’ve gained on this course to provide insights into what this war is expected to look like

  Who are the war’s participants?

  Will the conflict be geographically limited to the Taiwan Strait?

  How long is the conflict expected to last?

  What limits will China and other participants place on the use of force?

  How will the conflict end?

After we’ve discussed what the war might look like, you will be asked the following three questions:

• 1. Why hasn’t an invasion already taken place?

  2. What lessons from Ukraine can inform our views of what a war over Taiwan would like

  3. Although an invasion is not inevitable, what policy recommendations (to the EU, US, UN, Taiwan, etc.) would you propose to reduce the prospect?

• china has an army and taiwan has reserve forces

• warning time: it takes time to sail the ship to taiwan

• having interlinked economies cab reduce a war but doesnt mean it will eliminate it