Global Demographics and Population Trends

Vocabulary flashcards reviewing core definitions, demographic metrics, historical policies, and concepts related to population growth as discussed in the lecture transcript.

Straight line instinct

The tendency to look at a current graph or trend and assume it will continue to progress indefinitely at the exact same rate.

Gap instinct

The instinct to divide population data or global conditions into two extreme groups (such as rich versus poor), which causes people to lose sight of the majority existing in the middle.

Paul Ehrlich

The author of 'Population Bomb' who relied on the straight line instinct to argue that rapid population growth would continuously escalate, resulting in mass starvation and apocalypse.

Birth rate (Fertility rate)

The average number of children born per woman in a population. The current global average is approximately $2.25$ children per woman.

Child mortality rate

The percentage of children who die between the ages of zero and five. The current global average is $3.8\%$.

Life expectancy (Lifespan)

The average length of time a person lives. The global average life expectancy is currently $73$ years.

Replacement rate

The fertility rate required for a population to remain stable without growing or shrinking, which is approximately $2.1$ children per woman.

Exponential growth

Growth that becomes continuously faster and faster over time. The transcript notes that world population has not experienced exponential growth since 1960.

Linear growth

Growth that adds a constant absolute quantity over regular time intervals (such as adding $1\text{ billion}$ people every 14 years), which means the relative growth rate is actually falling.

Population fill-up

The phenomenon where global population grows by several billion without an increase in the annual number of children born, driven simply by existing younger generations growing older and filling up older age cohorts.

One child policy (China)

A strict population control policy instituted by China in 1979 that led to widespread forced sterilizations, abortions, and sex-selective abortions, resulting in an aging population and a skewed male-to-female ratio.

Two child policy (China)

A policy implemented by China in 2016 in response to concerns that its population was falling too rapidly and aging faster than the economy could support.

Three child policy (China)

A policy introduced by China in 2021, along with economic incentives, to encourage larger families after previous policy adjustments failed to significantly raise fertility rates.

Demographics

The structural composition or physical makeup of a given population or society.

Fertility convergence

The pattern wherein immigrant groups, by their second generation in a host country, adapt to local socioeconomic norms and display fertility rates identical to the surrounding population.

Kaufman's demographic theory

The projection by researcher Kaufman that Europe will be more religious in the year 2100 than today due to slightly higher fertility rates among religious groups and immigration from developing, highly religious nations.