Chp. 3 - Long-Run economic growth

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57 Terms

1

Key statistic

Real GDP per Capita

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GDP

measurs the income earned in the economy in a given year

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Real GDP

separates changes in the quantity of goods and services from the effect of a rising price level

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Real GDP per capita

isolates the effect of changes in the population

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5

The rule of 70

Tells us how long it takes for a variable to double.

<p>Tells us how long it takes for a variable to double.</p>
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Source of long-run growth

Rising productivity

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Labor productivity

(productivity)

output per worker

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Productivity

real GDP / number of people working

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Source of productivity growth

  • Increase in physical capital

  • Increase in human capital

  • Technological progress

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Physical capital

human-made resources (buildings, machines, etc.)

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Human capital

the improvement in labor created by the education and knowledge embodied in the workforce

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Technological progress

an advance in technical means of production of goods and services

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Aggregate production function

a hypothetical function that shows how productivity (real GDP per worker) depends on the quantities of physical capital per worker, human capital per worker, and technology.

<p>a hypothetical function that shows how productivity (real GDP per worker) depends on the quantities of physical capital per worker, human capital per worker, and technology.</p>
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Aggregate production function exhibits

→ diminishing returns to physical capital

When the amount of human capital per worker and the state of technology are held fixed, each successive increase in the amount of physical capital per worker leads to a smaller increased productivity.

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Diminishing

it holds true, when the amount of human capital per worker and the technology are held fixed

Diminishing return may disappear if we increase the amount of human capital per worker, or improve the technology, or both.

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Growth Accounting

estimates of the contribution of each major factor in the aggregate production function to economic growth

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Total factor productivity

the amount of output that can be produced with a given amount of factor inputs

Central to economic growth

Economy can produce more output (same quantity of physical capital, human capital, and labor)

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Total factor productivity increases

economy can produce more output (same quantity of physical capital, human capital, and labor)

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19

Productivity paradox

the observation that despite rapid advancements in technology—especially in information technology (IT)—measured productivity growth does not always increase at the expected rate.

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Productivity paradox explanation

  • measurement issues

  • time lags in adoption

  • misallocation of resources

  • Diminishing returns to innovation

  • Shifts in economic structure

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Why growth rates differ

  • Savings and investment spending

  • Education

  • Research and development (R&D)

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Government promoting economic growth (6 channels)

  1. Government subsidies to INFRASTRUCTURE

  2. Government subsidies to EDUCATION

  3. Government subsidies to R&D

  4. Maintaining a well-functioning financial system

  5. Protection of property rights

  6. Political stability

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Infrastructure

roads, power lines, ports, information networks, and other underpinnings for economic activity

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Property rights

legal rights held by owners of valuable items to dispose of those as they choose

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Intellectual property rights

the rights of innovators to accrue the rewards of their innovations

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Patents

government-created temporary monopolies given to innovators for the use or sale of their innovations.

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East Asia

High growth rates

  • very high savings rates

  • very good basic education

  • substantial technological progress

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Convergent hypothesis

differences in real GDP per capita among countries tend to narrow over time

poorer economies will grow faster than richer ones, leading to a reduction in income disparities between nations.

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Why catch up

  • Diminishing returns to capital

  • Technology diffusion

  • Higher marginal returns on investment

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Types of convergence

  • Absolute (unconditional) convergence

  • Conditional convergence

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Absolute (unconditional) convergence

  • The idea that all economies automatically converge in GDP per capita, regardless of policies or institutions.

  • Critics argue this is unrealistic because structural differences (education, governance, infrastructure) matter.

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Conditional convergence

  • Countries converge only if they have similar economic policies, institutions, and access to technology.

  • Empirical studies suggest that nations with stable policies and investment in education & infrastructure tend to grow faster and catch up.

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Latin America

Poor economy

  • Irresponsible government action that eroded savings through high inflation

  • Lack of emphasis on education

  • Political instability

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Africa

Poor economy

  • Government corruption

  • Civil wars and political instability

  • Unfavorable geography

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Impulses economic growth

  • Very high savings rates

  • Very good basic education

  • Substantial technological progress

  • countries playing catch-up with countries that already have high real GDP per capita.

  • for relatively poor countries if the convergence hypothesis holds true.

  • country is able to benefit from adopting the technological advances already used in advanced countries.

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Impulses

Very high savings rates

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Impulses

Very good basic education

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Impulses

Substantial technological progress

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Impulses

countries playing catch-up with countries that already have high real GDP per capita.

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Impulses

for relatively poor countries if the convergence hypothesis holds true.

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Impulses

country is able to benefit from adopting the technological advances already used in advanced countries.

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Restraints

Government corruption

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Restraints

Civil wars and political instability

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Restraints

Unfavorable geography

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Restraints

Irresponsible government action that eroded savings through high inflation

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Restraints

Lack of emphasis on education

Does it impulse or restrain economic growth?

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Restraints economic growth

  • Government corruption

  • Civil wars and political instability

  • Unfavorable geography

  • Irresponsible government action that eroded savings through high inflation

  • Lack of emphasis on education

  • Political instability

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sustainable long-run economic growth

long-run growth that can continue in the face of a limited supply of natural resources and the impact of growth on the environment

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Equal growth

Rising real GDP per capita has translated into real income for most people.

2 Requirements

  1. economic growth still raises the standard of living of the great majority of the population

  2. gives rise to a global middle-class

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50

Resource scarcity

leads to high prices, and these high prices provide strong incentives to conserve the resource and find alternatives.

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Natural resources and growth

“Neo-Malthusian” theories claim that economic growth will be severely limited by lack of resources.

Economists believe that modern economies handle scarcity fairly well.

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Neo-Malthusian Theories

population growth would outpace food production, leading to widespread poverty and resource scarcity.

Modern Neo-Malthusians extend this argument, claiming that economic growth is unsustainable due to limited natural resources and environmental degradation.

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Neo-Malthusian Theory reasoning

  • Resource depletion

  • Environmental limits and climate change

  • Food supply constraints

  • Overpopulation and carrying capacity

  • Limits to technological progress

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Climate change

changes in Earth´s climate brought about by human activities

Impact → pollution, loss of wildlife habitats, extinction of species, and reduced biodiversity.

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Local environmental degradation

easier to reduce

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Environment

  • Local environmental degradation

  • Global environmental degradation

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Paris agreement 2015

196 countries agreed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to limit the rise in Earth’s temperature to no more than 2 degrees Celsius.

China and India agreed to limit their emissions

Rich countries committed to help poorer countries pay the cost.

America to withdraw

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