POSC 310 Midterm Sources Flashcards

Federalist 10

Factions are inevitable because people have different opinions, property, and interests

The causes of factions can’t be removed without destroying liberty or forcing everyone to think the same

Since factions can’t be eliminated, their effects must be controlled

Majority factions are dangerous because they can oppress minority groups

A large republic is the best defense against factions

In a large republic, there are many competing interests, so no single faction can easily dominate

Representation filters public opinion through elected officials who are more likely to act for the common good

A direct democracy is more likely to lead to instability and majority tyranny

Federalist 51

Because people are not angels, government is necessary — but government itself must be limited and checked

The government must be designed so that each branch (legislative, executive, judicial) can check the others

Separation of powers ensures no one branch becomes too powerful

Checks and balances give each branch the means to resist encroachments by the others

The legislative branch is the strongest, so it should be divided into two houses (House and Senate) to weaken its dominance

A federal system (division between national and state governments) provides another layer of protection for liberty

A large republic helps protect minority rights by making it harder for one group to dominate

Theiss-Morse & Wagner Chapter 1

Free and fair elections
Trust in government
Improve Trust in government:

◼Strengthening institutional integrity

◼ Improving transparency & accountability

◼ Improving leadership

◼ Improving public relations

◼ Iterative process

◼ Providing reliable information

◼ Fostering civic engagement

◼ Empowering citizens in the democratic process

Brookings: “Polling & Public Opinion: The good, the bad, and the ugly” (2003)

Polling helps leaders understand public views but is often distrusted when results conflict with personal beliefs.

Problems with polls: biased question wording, unrepresentative samples, and undisclosed funding sources.

Many poll respondents lack deep opinions, so results can reflect framing more than genuine beliefs.

Public opinion is complex — people are often ambivalent or inconsistent.

Declining response rates and changing technology (cell phones, caller ID) reduce accuracy.

Polls can be misused by interest groups or politicians to manipulate public perception.

Polling should inform but not control policy decisions.

Transparency about methods and questions is essential for credibility.

Effective democracy requires leaders to balance polls with judgment and long-term values

Converse, Phillip E. 1964. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics,” in Ideology and Discontent.

studied how ordinary citizens organize political beliefs compared to political elites.

Found that most people have low ideological consistency — their views don’t line up in a coherent pattern.

Introduced the idea of “belief systems”: sets of ideas connected by logical or psychological linkages.

Identified five levels of conceptualization (from most to least sophisticated):

Ideologues – use abstract principles (e.g., liberal vs. conservative).

Near-ideologues – mention broad themes without deep understanding.

Group interest – base opinions on what benefits certain groups.

Nature of the times – react to current events or political mood.

No issue content – little or no meaningful political reasoning.

Found that elites (politicians, activists) are much more ideologically consistent than the mass public.

Concluded that most citizens’ opinions are unstable, weakly structured, and easily influenced.

Implication: public opinion may not be a reliable guide for policymaking due to low political awareness and coherence.

Berelson, Bernard. 1952. “Democratic Theory and Public Opinion.” Public Opinion Quarterly 16(3): 313-330.

examines the tension between democratic ideals and how citizens actually behave in practice.

Democratic theory assumes citizens are informed, rational, and actively engaged.

Empirical research shows most citizens are uninformed, apathetic, and inconsistent in their political opinions.

This gap raises doubts about whether democracy can function as theory envisions.

argues democracy survives not because citizens are perfect, but because the system compensates for their limits (e.g., party competition, leadership, and social norms).

Public opinion still plays a role — it sets broad limits on what leaders can do, even if citizens don’t follow issues closely.

Concludes that democracy works in practice through balance and moderation, not through idealized, fully informed participation.

Bartels, Larry M. 1996. “Uninformed Votes: Information Effects in Presidential Elections,” AJPS 40: 194-230.

studies how voter information levels affect choices in U.S. presidential elections.

Many voters are poorly informed about candidates, issues, and policies.

Using statistical simulations, he estimates how election outcomes would change if all voters were fully informed.

Finds that information significantly influences vote choice — uninformed voters often support different candidates than informed ones.

Uninformed voting tends to benefit the incumbent party and can distort true public preferences.

Despite low knowledge, overall results are usually not completely random, but information gaps still shift outcomes.

Concludes that political information matters — improving voter knowledge would lead to different and more representative election results.

Humphries, Muller, and Schiller. 2013. “The Political Socialization of Adolescent Children of Immigrants.” Social Science Quarterly 94(5): 1261-82.

Examines how children of immigrants become politically socialized in the U.S. during adolescence.

Focuses on family, school, and community influences on political attitudes and engagement.

Finds that parental political participation strongly shapes adolescents’ political interest and behaviors.

Peer and school environments also influence political knowledge and civic engagement, sometimes amplifying or counteracting family effects.

Second-generation immigrant adolescents often adopt political behaviors similar to their peers while retaining some family influence.

Highlights that socialization processes vary by immigrant group, generation, and context.

Concludes that both family and broader social environments are crucial for shaping political development among children of immigrants.

Theiss-Morse & Wagner Chapter 6

Public Opinion
Rationality
Individual Opinions
Aggregate Opinions
Political Attitudes
Attitude Structures
Non-Attitudes
Political Ideology
Non-response

Converse et al. 1960. The American Voter. Ch.9

• focuses on how voters make decisions in presidential elections.

• Voter choices are influenced by party identification, ideology, and candidate evaluations.

• Partisan loyalty is the strongest predictor of vote choice; most voters consistently support their party.

• Independent voters are less predictable and more susceptible to short-term factors like campaigns and current issues.

• Campaigns have limited effects on changing voters’ long-term party attachments.

• Political sophistication matters: highly informed voters are more consistent and ideologically structured than less informed voters.

• Concludes that long-term partisan alignments dominate presidential election outcomes, while short-term factors play a secondary role.

Theiss-Morse & Wagner Chapter 5

Partisanship
- single most important characteristic to predict an individuals vote
Independents

Nonpartisans
Party vs. Ideology

Barber and Pope. 2018. “Does Party Trump Ideology? Disentangling Party and Ideology in America.” APSR 1(1): 1-17.

• Investigates whether party identification or ideology better predicts political behavior in the U.S.

• Finds that party ID is a stronger predictor than ideology for voting behavior and issue positions.

• Even voters with ideological beliefs contrary to their party often vote along party lines.

• Partisan loyalty shapes perceptions of issues and candidates, not just vote choice.

• Suggests that American politics is increasingly partisan, with ideology often following party rather than the reverse.

• Concludes that party attachment dominates ideological consistency in shaping political behavior.

Huddy, Leonie. 2001. “From Social to Political Identity: A Critical Examination of Social Identity Theory.” Political Psychology 22(1): 127-56

• Examines how social identity theory applies to political behavior.

• Social identities (e.g., race, gender, religion) influence political attitudes, preferences, and group loyalty.

• Political identity formation involves both group membership and individual experiences.

• Strong group identification can lead to in-group favoritism and out-group bias in politics.

• Political identities are not fixed; they interact with context, cues, and political events.

• Highlights limitations of applying social identity theory directly to politics, calling for nuanced models.

• Concludes that understanding political behavior requires considering both social identity and broader psychological, social, and contextual factors.

Pérez, Lee, and Luna. 2025. “Partisans of Color: Asian American and Latino Party ID in an Era of Racialization and Polarization.” APSR: 1-17

• Focus: Explores how racialization and polarization shape party identification among Asian American and Latino adults in the U.S.

• Key Argument: Partisanship is influenced by the prioritization of racial versus national identity.

• Findings:

  • Individuals who prioritize their racial identity over their American identity are more likely to identify with the Democratic Party.

  • This pattern is consistent across explicit and implicit measures of identity.

  • Perceived marginalization or categorization threat can lead individuals to emphasize their racial identity, influencing their partisan alignment.

• Methodology:

  • Utilized surveys (N = 20,327) and Implicit Association Tests (IATs).

  • Conducted experiments (N = 2,920) to examine identity prioritization under different conditions.

• Contribution: Highlights the complex interplay between identity and partisanship, emphasizing that racial and national identities are not fixed but can be activated differently depending on context.

Video: Kimberlé Crenshaw’s TED Talk - “The Urgency of Intersectionality”

• Intersectionality: a framework for understanding how overlapping social identities (race, gender, class, etc.) create unique experiences of discrimination.

• People with multiple marginalized identities often face compounded disadvantages that single-axis analyses overlook.

• Crenshaw highlights cases of Black women who were discriminated against in ways that were ignored by both racial justice and feminist movements.

• Legal and policy frameworks often fail to account for intersectional experiences, leaving some groups invisible.

• Emphasizes the urgency of recognizing intersectionality to ensure justice and equality for all.

• Calls for society, law, and activism to address structural inequality through an intersectional lens.

Political Science Now: “What Drives Polarization” (2024)

• Focus: Investigates the primary factors contributing to political polarization in the United States.

• Key Finding: The tone and intensity of political discourse, especially when it becomes hostile, are significant drivers of polarization.

• Methodology: Utilized advanced GPT-3 AI technology to craft tailored counterarguments and conducted experiments to assess their impact.

• Conclusion: Polarization is not an inevitable outcome; it can be influenced by the manner in which political discussions are conducted.

Pew: “Changing Partisan Coalitions in a Politically Divided Nation” (2024)

• Partisan Balance: Registered voters are nearly evenly split: 49% identify with or lean Democratic, and 48% with or lean Republican.

• Demographic Shifts: Both parties have become more racially and ethnically diverse, but the Democratic coalition has seen more significant changes. 

• Educational Divide: Voters with a college degree tend to lean Democratic, while those without a degree increasingly align with the Republican Party.

• Age and Partisanship: Younger voters (18–24) predominantly identify with the Democratic Party, whereas older voters (65+) lean Republican.

• Religious Affiliation: Religiously unaffiliated voters are more likely to identify with the Democratic Party, while White evangelical Protestants strongly align with the Republican Party.

• Geographic Trends: Rural areas show a strong Republican preference, urban areas lean Democratic, and suburban areas remain closely divided.

Tesler, Michael. 2012. “The Spillover of Racialization into Health Care: How President Obama Polarized Public Opinion by Racial Attitudes and Race.” AJPS. 56(3): 690-704

• Central Argument: President Obama's association with health care reform heightened the racialization of public opinion, making racial attitudes a stronger determinant of opinions on health care.

• Key Findings:

  • Racial attitudes had a significantly larger impact on health care opinions in fall 2009 compared to previous decades.

  • Health care policies were more racialized when attributed to President Obama than when framed as part of President Clinton's 1993 reform efforts.

  • The racial divide in support for health care reform was 20 percentage points greater during Obama's tenure than during Clinton's.

• Methodology:

  • Utilized cross-sectional surveys, panel data, and embedded experiments to assess the influence of racial attitudes on health care opinions.

  • Conducted experiments where health care policies were attributed to either Obama or Clinton to observe differences in public opinion.

• Implications: The study highlights how the racialization of political issues can deepen divisions in public opinion, especially when policies are strongly associated with racialized figures.

Carnegie: “Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States” (2023)

• Affective Polarization: While emotional divisions between political parties have increased, they are not the primary drivers of democratic backsliding or political violence.

• Misconceptions and Identity: Polarized emotions often stem from misbeliefs about the other party's policy beliefs, demographics, and intentions, rather than genuine ideological differences.

• Ineffectiveness of Short-Term Interventions: Efforts to reduce affective polarization, such as structured dialogues, have shown limited and short-lived success in altering political behaviors or attitudes toward democratic norms.

• Political Violence: Affective polarization does not directly cause political violence. Instead, violence is more closely linked to factors like aggressive personalities, low self-control, and a belief that there will be no severe consequences for violent actions.

• Structural Incentives: The U.S. political system's structures and incentives play a significant role in fostering polarization and enabling political violence, suggesting that reforms targeting these areas may be more effective than focusing solely on reducing emotional divisions.

Zaller and Feldman. 1992. “A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions versus Revealing Preferences.” AJPS 36(3): 579-616.

• Central Argument: Individuals answer survey questions by averaging across the considerations that happen to be salient at the moment of response.

• Three Axioms:

  1. Ambivalence: Most people possess opposing considerations on most issues.

  2. Accessibility: The accessibility of any given consideration depends on a stochastic sampling process.

  3. Response: Individuals answer survey questions by averaging across the considerations that happen to be salient at the moment of response.

• Key Findings:

  • Responses are unstable over time but still centered around the mean of the underlying considerations.

  • The model can explain various survey artifacts, such as question order effects, race-of-interviewer effects, endorsement effects, reference group effects, question framing effects, and TV news priming effects.

  • More politically active/aware people give more stable responses due to having a larger number of considerations "accessible" when they answer a closed-ended survey question.

• Implications: The model suggests that survey responses are not fixed attitudes but are influenced by the considerations that are most accessible at the time of response.