FPSYC3400: Decision-Making & Critical Incident Management

Lecture 10

Slide 4

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Critical Incident Management (CIM) Cycle

1. preparing for critical incidents

2. managing critical incidents

3. restoring public confidence

Traditional Decision Making (TDM) is related to which theory?

Classical Decision Theory

According to the Classical Decision Theory what characteristic do decision makers have?

• Are objective

• Have complete information

• Consider all possible alternatives & their consequences

• Select the optimal solution

Traditional Decision Making (TDM) Criticisms

• rarely possible to consider all alternatives

• impractical to consider all consequences

• estimation process costs time & effort

• information is rarely complete and/or accurate

• individual lack mental capacity to process all the information

What is Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) concerned with?

with how individuals and teams use their experience to assess, make meaningful decisions and take action in dynamic, uncertain, and time-pressured situations

With regard to Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) blank is an important variable to consider

experience

Features of Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM)

• Ill-defined goals & ill-structured task

• Uncertainty, ambiguity, & missing data

• Shifting & competing gals

• Dynamic & continually changing conditions

• Action-feedback loops (real-time reactions to changed conditions)

• Time stress

• High stakes

• Multiple players

• Organizational goals & norms

• Experienced decision-makers

Essential Characteristics of Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM)

1. proficient decision0makers

2. process orientation

3. situation-action matching decisions rules

4. context-bound informal modelling

5. empirical-based prescription

Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) - Field Studies

provide insight into the demand of the environment on decision-making, the affordances and constraints of those environments

Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) - Simulations

• elicit similar behaviour

• realistic feautures can be built in (i.e., temporal parameters, distractions, workload)

• subjects’ behaviour can be analyzed as a function of relevant factors (i.e., levels of experience)

• Example: Minerva, Hydra, 10Kv

Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) - Laboratory Techniques

can be used to help further the understanding of decision-making after a level of understanding already exists in a particular domain

Hydra is blank based training?

simulation

Hydra: Simulation-Based Training enables?

the monitoring of group dynamics, real-time leadership, and naturalistic decision-making in critical incidents

Hydra: Simulation-Based Training - Benefits 

• Scenarios are immersive & often replicate real-life conditions

• Allow the person to gain experience in a safe learning environment

• Participants get experience working as a team in high-pressure environments

• Allows for formative assessments of knowledge and decision-making skills of participants

Which decision-making is related to these features?

Traditional

Which decision-making is related to these features?

Naturalistic 

Which decision making cannot use all the information that is available all of the time?

Heuristics & Decision-Making

Heuristics & Decision-Making can lead to blank in decision making

biases 

When is Recognition-Primed Decision-Making (RPD) model used?

complex and uncertain situations

Recognition-Primed Decision-Making (RPD) 2 processes

• situation assessment

• evaluation using mental simulation 

Slide 16

Done

Key Features of Recognition-Primed Decision-Making (RPD)

1. Blend of intuition (pattern recognition) and analysis (mental simulation)

• NOT just intuition

2. First option is usually workable

•NOT random generation

3. Satisficing

•NOT optimizing

4. Evaluation through mental simulation

•NOT Rational Choice

5. Focus on elaborating and improving options

•NOT choosing between options

6. Focus on situation awareness

•NOT courses of action

7. Decision maker primed to act

NOT waiting to complete the analysis

What example in lecture is used? 

“A hungry donkey stands between two identical hay piles. The donkey always chooses whichever hay is closest to him. Both piles are exactly the same distance apart, one on his right, one on his left, and they are identical in every way. Which pile of hay will the donkey choose to eat?”

Why is Critical Incident & Decision-Making research important?

• There is a need to incorporate some form of judgement/decision-making theory into existing training curriculums

  • Knowing where uncertainty comes from allows more focused advice and recommendations to improve training

• Without prior knowledge, training, or frequent exposure, the response is generally one of stress, confusion, frustration, and fear

Result à mistakes!