(YES) Evaluate The View That The Popularity Of The Prime Minister Is The Most Important Factor Influencing The Balance Of Power Between The Cabinet and Prime Minister

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P1

Theme: The Popularity Of The PM vs How Unified The PM's Party Is

Against: Arguments That The Popularity Of The Prime Minister Isn't The Most Important Factor Influencing The Balance Of Power Between The Cabinet and Prime Minister

it can be argued that how united/divided a party is more important in influencing the balance of power between the cabinet and Prime Minister.
Even if a Prime Minister is popular with the public, they will struggle to control their party and cabinet if they are fundamentally divided over key policies. Balancing and maintaining the support of different factions is very difficult.

In one way or another, divisions over Europe have caused difficulties for every Conservative Party leader from Major to May. Theresa May in particular struggled to keep the support of a party that was divided between one- nation conservatives and hard Brexiteers in the European Research Group (ERG) in particular.

Her cabinet forced her towards a hard position on Brexit and she struggled to maintain collective ministerial responsibility, with Brexiteer ministers such as Boris Johnson speaking out and sometimes even voting against the government.

Counterpoint: on the other hand, this was also caused in part by May being unpopular with the public.

Boris Johnson had more success in controlling the party in the early years of his premiership, as the party was united after he kicked out many one-nation conservatives from the party and replaced them in the 2019 election with Brexiteers who were personally loyal to him.

For: Arguments That The Popularity Of The Prime Minister Is The Most Important Factor Influencing The Balance Of Power Between The Cabinet and Prime Minister

How popular a Prime Minister is with the public is a highly important factor in influencing whether they are able to exercise control over their cabinet and party.

If a Prime Minister is popular with the electorate, they will be supported by their cabinet and party as they will help MPs and cabinet members get elected at the next election and therefore keep their jobs. As a consequence they will be able to exert significant control over the government and their ministers.

If a Prime Minister is unpopular, however, they will be seen as an electoral liability and their party and cabinet will often turn on them and seek to remove them.

Thatcher was very popular mid-way through being Prime Minister. As a consequence, she was able to exert significant control over her cabinet and drive through the policies she wanted, such as weakening the power of Trade Unions and privatising key industries.

However, near the end of her reign, she became very unpopular with the public and cabinet after trying to push through with the Poll tax despite its unpopularity and the cabinet opposing it. This weakened her control over the cabinet and first led to her Chancellor John Major forcing her to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism and then being forced to resign by her cabinet after key resignations.

In the year after the 2019 election, Boris Johnson was a major electoral asset to the Conservative Party and hence had strong control over his party and cabinet. As he became less popular with the public however, especially with the Partygate scandal, the cabinet gained in power and he was eventually forced out by key members of the cabinet resigning, including Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid.

Liz Truss' failed mini-budget led to a huge drop in support for the Conservative Party in the polls. As a result, her cabinet and party forced her out a

Judgement

Overall, though party unity is clearly an important factor influencing the power balance between the Prime Minister and cabinet, the popularity of the Prime Minister is more important, as the cabinet is ultimately driven by winning the next election and maintaining their seats.
This can be seen in particular with Boris Johnson, who had a large majority and presided over a largely united party, yet was removed after becoming unpopular with the public because of Partygate.

P2

Theme: The Management Skills Of The PM vs The Popularity Of The PM
Against: Arguments That The Popularity Of The Prime Minister Isn't The Most Important Factor Influencing The Balance Of Power Between The Cabinet and Prime Minister

Rather than the popularity of the Prime Minister being the most important factor affecting the balance of power between the Prime Minister and Cabinet, it can be argued that the management skills of the Prime Minister is more important.

An effective Prime Minister can use their powers of patronage to shape the top team in a way that enhances their power and enables them to promote their policy priorities and agenda, removing poor performers, bringing in fresh talent and promoting ideological allies.
This can allow Prime Ministers to maintain their authority and marginalise the power of factions/individuals in their party who may want to challenge them for the leadership/destabilise the government

If the Prime Minister becomes too dominant and doesn't give ministers some control, though, this may also cause discontent and result in them being removed by the cabinet, as was the case with Thatcher in 1990 when the resignation of former ally Geoffrey Howe ultimately triggering a leadership challenge that brought Thatcher down.

It can be argued that Tony Blair managed his cabinet effectively in a way that enhanced his power, by giving significant power to Gordon Brown in order to maintain his power and prevent him from challenging for the leadership, whilst using the the Communications and Strategy Directorate in Downing Street to control the government's media messaging and ensure the cabinet publicly supported the government.

By contrast, it can be argued that Boris Johnson's poor management of his cabinet was a key reason why he lacked power over it by the end. Allowing Rishi Sunak to be the figurehead of the Furlough Scheme and 'Eat Out To Help Out' during COVID ultimately made him very popular with the public and able to bring the Prime Minister down through resigning and running for the leadership himself.

For: Arguments That The Popularity Of The Prime Minister Is The Most Important Factor Influencing The Balance Of Power Between The Cabinet and Prime Minister

On the other hand, it can be argued that the popularity of the the Prime Minister is more important.
When the Prime Minister is popular, they will find it a lot easier to manage their cabinet as was the case with both Boris Johnson in the year after the 2019 election and Tony Blair.
What made Boris Johnson less able to control his cabinet in the end of his reign was arguably not his lack of management skills, but his declining popularity, which emboldened key cabinet ministers to challenge him.

Judgement

Overall, whilst the management skills of the Prime Minister are clearly important in the power balance between them and the cabinet, the Prime Minister's popularity is a more important factor. Even Prime Ministers with exceptional management skills find it very difficult to control their cabinet when they're unpopular.

P3

Theme: The Ability Of The PM To Bypass The Cabinet vs The Popularity Of The PM
Against: Arguments That The Popularity Of The Prime Minister Isn't The Most Important Factor Influencing The Balance Of Power Between The Cabinet and Prime Minister

A final key factor influencing the power balance between the Prime Minister and the Cabinet is the ability of the Prime Minister to bypass the cabinet in decision making through the use of informal committees, SPADs and Downing Street.

Prime Ministers have more control in smaller forums and it is easier to reach a compromise with one or two key ministers than the whole cabinet. As a consequence, they often use smaller cabinet committees (such as the National Security Council/COVID-19 Strategy Committee), bi-lateral meeting with ministers and informal groups to make decisions, shunning the cabinet.

Under Tony Blair, he and Chancellor Gordon Brown negotiated with each other to determine economic policy, whilst Blair often used bi-lateral meetings with important ministers to determine policy on a particular area, as he felt he could use them to talk ministers around to his view. Blair's style of governing was dubbed 'sofa government' as a result, as he largely shunned the cabinet.

Both Theresa May and Boris Johnson used cabinet committees to make decisions on important issues. Theresa May used the committee on exiting the European Union to make important decisions on Brexit, whilst Boris Johnson used the COVID-19 Strategy committee to make key decisions on COVID restrictions, with Health Secretary Matt Hancock and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove having particular power within it.

For: Arguments That The Popularity Of The Prime Minister Is The Most Important Factor Influencing The Balance Of Power Between The Cabinet and Prime Minister

On the other hand, it can be argued that the popularity of the Prime Minister is more important as the Prime Minister is unable to bypass the Cabinet when they are unpopular, as if the Cabinet feels sidelined and they no longer see the Prime Minister as an electoral asset, they will remove them.

For example, when Theresa May was seeking to introduce a Brexit deal, her unpopularity meant she had to give significant control to hardline Brexiteers in her cabinet, including Boris Johnson, who had a lot of influence due to their support among the party. This forced Theresa May to a harder Brexit deal.

Similar can be seen with Liz Truss, who forced through her radical economic policies with Kwasi Kwarteng with little consultation of the Cabinet. After they failed and she became deeply unpopular, collective ministerial responsibility broke down and she was eventually forced to resign by her party and cabinet.

Judgement

Overall, the ability of Prime Ministers to bypass their cabinet is an important factor influencing the power balance between the cabinet and PM and has increased the power of the latter in the past few decades. Prime Ministers are unable to successfully bypass the cabinet if they are unpopular, however, showing that the popularity of the PM is a more important factor.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the popularity of the Prime Minister is the most important factor influencing the balance of power between the Prime Minister and the cabinet. Whether a Prime Minister helps the party and MPs get elected is the key thing that ministers care about.
As a result, Prime Ministers who are unpopular struggle to control their cabinets even if they are usually effective at managing their cabinet and their party is united. Not only does collective ministerial responsibility break down, Prime Ministers are often removed after key members of the cabinet resign, particularly if the PM tries to bypass the cabinet when they are unpopular.