Tranitions to democracy

conditions for regime change

1. economic crisis

   1. Iran has had this for many years sparking protests against economic conditions

2. split within leadership

3. organized opposition

   1. Someone who can take over reigns of gov after regime change

Iran’s supreme leader

1. Ruhollah Khomeini (1979-1989)

2. Ali Khamenei (1989-2026)

3. Mojaba Khamenei (2026-)

why do countries democratize

• modernization theory

  • industrialization brings urbanization

  • rising levels of education

• rise of new social classes which pushes for greater inclusuin

• civil society

the case of Iran (resource curse)

• state ownership of oil industry

• State ownership of oil industry (it nationalized oil industry which previously had private owners

• Its a curse because gov doesn’t rely on taxes on citizens for its revenue so they dont have to be held accountable to have representation and a voice in the government

the case of Iran (lack of modernization)

• Little industrialization

• Low level of post-material values

the case of Iran (repression)

• no organzation opposition

• weak civil society (state has been so effective at targeting groups so they don’t have a strong civil society)

three waves of democratization

• First wave: 1821-1926 (33 countries)

  • Reverse wave (1922-42) deomocratized in first wave but reversed

• Second wave 1943-1962 (41 countries)

  • Reverse wave (1958-75)

• Third wave 1974-1990s (35 countries)

case of Iran summary

Iran has struggled to democratize because:

• Oil wealth reduces need to tax citizens

• Weak industrial growth

• Repression by the state

• Weak opposition groups

• Weak civil society

correlates of democracy

• No absolutes

• More likely when present, less likely when missing

• Elite commitment to democracy

• National unity (if you cant agree on who belongs in your country and who doesnt, territory, then difficult to share political rights and freedoms)

• Market economy

• National wealth

• Facilitate democratization, but don’t guarantee it.

how do countries democratize

• Transformation: elite-led democratization from above

  • Leaders initiate democratization

  • Boris yeltsin defting coup attempt

• Replacement democratization (bottom up)

  • Berlin wall (successful) end communist rule in East Germany 

• Pacted transition: result of negotiations between ruling elites and pro-democracy opposition (authoritatian leaders negotiate with incoming democratic leaders)

South Africa transition to democracy

Sometimes democracy comes through negotiation between rulers and opposition. Example: South Africa with F. W. de Klerk and Nelson Mandela.