heuristics & biases reading + lecture

heuristic

a simplifying strategy or rough "rule of thumb" for making rapid judgments

availability heuristic

judging the frequency or likelihood of an event based on how easy it is to think of examples or occurrences of the event

representativeness heuristic

judging the nature or likelihood of an event based on how much it resembles some other event

numerosity heuristic

judging the total amount, quantity, or probability of something based on the number of pieces into which that something has been divided. "more pieces = more stuff"

anchor and adjust bias

the bias toward insufficient correction (under-correction) when revising judgments known to be wrong

overconfidence

the tendency to be more confident than correct, overestimating how well or how quickly you can do (or have done) something.

planning fallacy

the tendency to think you will finish a project or activity before you actually do so (a form of overconfidence)

above average effect

the finding that on most highly valued dimensions (especially vaguely defined ones), more than half of all people think they are in the top half of all people

heuristics (three examples)

availability, representativeness, numerosity

availability heuristic (example)

believing the lie that the 2020 election was stolen because you recall having heard this claim many dozens of times.

representativeness heuristic (example)

wrongly thinking that male hyenas are more aggressive than females because, in most other mammals, males are more aggressive.

numerosity heuristic (example)

Interviewer: "Is it any louder?" Nigel: "well, it's one louder now, isn't it?"

anchor and adjust bias (example)

giving answers that are much too low in the paper folding problem

overconfidence (example)

When Barry was young, his dad often had to remind him not to fight two people at once

planning fallacy (example)

Dr P was sure he would finish writing and submitting a research paper in two weeks. It took him 5 weeks.

above average effect (example)

Garrison Keeler said that in lake Wobegon, "all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average"