risk assessment + effective prison and treatment of offenders

crime rates are thought to be ___ but are actually ___. the exception is ___

increasing; decreasing; sexual assault

why doesnt rehabiliation in incarceration work>

type of rehab interventions are bad - e.g. chaining together, factory work etc; v dehumanising

two key types of offender rehab programs? effectiveness?

behavioural (pavlov - positive reinforcement; work ish but not really) - cognitive behavioural (thoughts-feelings-behaviours)

cbt components (6 components)

classes, attending to thoughts, identifying mistakes in thinking, reasoning abt right and wrong actions, generate alt solutions, workshopping/ role play

cbt effectiveness

• 1.5 x less likely to reoffend; vs 10% pt decrease on control

RNR model

risk - who should be treated; needs - what should be treated (sttaic vs dynamic) - responsivity

history of risk assessment

first gen - unstructured clinical judgmenet
second gen - actuarial risk focused on static factors
third gen - static (demographic unchangeable) + dynamic factors (changeavble) i.e. criminogenic needs
fourth gen - decisions guided by static + dynamic factors + clinician adjustement based on individual factors (introduce a bit of first gen)

what should be treated (8)

antisocial associates, antisocial cognitions, antisocial personality, history of antisocial bahviour, family or marital status, school or work status, leisure or recreation activities, substance abuse history

rsponsivity types

general - effective cognitive social learning strategies; specific - responser to personal strenght and sociobiological personality factors

rnr efficacy

anti-rnr = increase recidivism (cause harm not even neutral); rnr good, rnr in communnity is best

importance of forensic risk management

1. promotes risk management by identifying risk + ensuring good supervision

2. promoting public safety

accuracy x error

The accuracy with which we can predict an event is related to the base rate frequency of that event – our best predictions occur when the behaviour occurs at a frequency of 50%. So, if we are dealing with an infrequent event – such as serious violent or sexual offending, it is very difficult to accurately predict offending and many of our predictions will be wrong

why is clinical judgement bad

clinical assessments of risk to be poor and error rate to be high. – Clark (1999) reviewed studies and concluded that clinical risk assessment is weak at best, at worst totally ineffective. 35-86% false positive error rate depending on study. • Not set rules or method, inconsistency between clinicians and within clinicians. – Due to limited capacity of human’s information processing meaning, we may pay attention to only a few relevant or irrelevant factors and ignore others in the face of complexity and high information (Dernevik, 2000) **typical in forensic settings. – Prone to biases and heuristics. E.g., confirmation bias, illusory correlation. • Bound to clinical experience, which varies, and does not guarantee accuracy. – Limited feedback loop in forensic settings. E.g., if a clinician predicts someone will reoffend, they may be held in custody (extend detention) – so never know if was correct or not

what is actuarial assessment

Statistical and empirical approach that involves identifying predictors (factors which significantly predict future offending) usually in combination to calculate a risk score that provides a risk-level/statistic for reoffence risk. It is underpinned by group-based normative data of individuals with similar characteristics (e.g., offence type, STATIC-99R)

hoiw to improve clinical methods? latest gen approach>?

Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ). • Allows consideration of both static and dynamic factors. Some of these instruments allow the clinician to modify assessed risk level on basis of clinical judgments – clinical override. • Some include protective factors (e.g., family support) which might lower risk