Advanced Political: Populism, consequences and Polarisation (Final 3 Lectures)

Define affective polarisation

Extent to which citizens feel negatively towrds other parties

Define partisan sorting

process by which individuals increasingly align all their views with one party

Define Political Polarisation

The extent to which political opinions oppose and how this opposition increases over time

Define Geographical Polarisation

The extent to which citizens live separately based on political identities

2 examples of political economy convergence models and who they converge to

Downsian model (median voter), probalistic model (swing voter)

Palfrey 1984 argument

If voters elastic, mass polarisation can lead to elite polarisation to prevent third parties capturing votes

Which study found an increase in mass polarisation

Saunders 2008

Which studies found no increase in mass polarisation

Lelkes 2016, Abrams 2012

Lelkes 2016 findings (3)

American views mostly single peaked, no decrease in US moderates for citizens, no increase in mass polarisation but an increase in party sorting

Duffy et al 2019 on mass polarisation in UK

No strong evidence except after BREXIT (since then, narrowing of gap)

Two studies on elite polarisation

McCarty et al 2008, Fiorina 2016

Fiorina 2016 conclusion on elite polarisation

Increased party sorting (political parties seem more distinct over time), moderates disppearing in congress

McCarty Poole and Rosenthal 2008 conclusions on elite polarisation

Made DW-NOMINATE scores (-1 most liberal +1 most conservative)

Extreme views more likely in congress

Difference in party means increased over time

Elite Polarisation/ Partisan sorting in UK?

Strong convergence pre brexit, no evidence of partisan sorting today, brexit has been polarising

Iyengar 2012 on affective polarisation in US

Increased since 90s

Iyengar 2012 3 causes of affective polarisation

party sorting, electoral campaigns, social media

Affective polarisation in UK

Brexit played stronger role in rise of affective polarisation

Has there been an increase or decrease in affective polarisation in Sweden and Norway

decrease

Define Populism

Ideology that considers society to be separated into pure people vs corrupt elite. Argue politics should be an exppression on the general will of the people

3 sets of cultural factors causing populism

1) Identity, Cultural Backlash and Values

2) Immigration

3) Social Media

4 sets of economic factors causing populism

1) Trade Globalisation

2) Automation

3) Financial crises

4) Austerity

Study on changing moral values to do with populism

Enke 2020

Enke 2020 findings

The shift from universal to communal values contibuted to the rise of populism

Explain the cultural backlash/ status loss point

As societies liberalise over time, conservatives feel threat of losing majority status, played significant role in trumps election (mutz, 2018). Rise of populism can be explained by cultural backlash against liberal elites

Social Capital (populism) study

Giuliano 2020

Giuliano 2020 findings

When individuals have dense social network, can cope with economic changes, less likely to express populist views due to normative pressure

Effect of immigration on populism 2 studies and description

Peri 2016 - net positive effects Alesina 2019 - immigrant data misperceived

Causal impact of high speed internet on political participation

Decrease in turnout in earlier elections, increased turnout later

Social media can create an…

echo chamber

Study and findings on trade globalisation

Colantone 2018 found leave vote shares in the UK are systematically higher in regions with larger import shocks

What were the automation related riots called and describe

Captain Swing riots 1830 after hand threshing was replaced with mechanical threshing machines. Found areas with more employment options had less severe riots

Frey et al 2018 results on automation

Increased exposure to robots increased Trump’s vote share

Funke et al 2016 findings

On average, far right parties increase their vote share by 30% after a financial crisis (not after normal recessions or non financial shocks)

Give some reasons why financial crises had such an impact

Easier to blaim on mainstream politicians, Resentment of bank bailouts instrumentalised, austerity measure can be perceived unfair, Austerity measures often implemented by supranational organisations

Fetzer 2019 found

austerity increased UKIP vote share by 8%

3 main studies of populism consequences lecture - and brief description

Born et al (2019) - Brexit doppelganger, Funke et al (2023) - populist leader effect on GDP per capita, Muller (2023) - twitter usage to anti muslim hate crimes

Born et al 2019 used what as a natural experiment

Brexit

How did Born et al 2019 construct the doppelganger counterfactual economy

Analysed evolution of other OECD countries, giving greater weight to those resembling UK pre-brexit

Born et al 2019 quantative results

By end of 2018 UK output fell by about 2.4% of GDP, cumulative loss of $55bn

SYRIZIA in Greece

Rejected referendum results and pursued orthodox policies. Positive effects but voted out of office

PiS in Poland

Launched family redistribution program (150 euros per month per child), reduced poverty wothout undermining growth or fiscal health

Funke et al 2023 data and methodology

Dataset of 51 populist presidents from 1900 to 2020, employed techniques including local projections and doppelganger method

what % of nations are led by a populist leader

25%

Funke et al 2023 quantitative results

Fifteen years after a populist leader takes office, GDP per capita is ten percent lower

Populist effects on institutions

May capture political and economic instituions

Populist effects on beliefs and norms

Rise of far right nationalist politicians may normalise previously stigmatised bahaviours

Populist effects on hate crimes

Change in perceptions and norms can cause a rise of hate crimes and xenophobia

Muller 2023 quantitative results

One standard devisation increase in twitter usage relates to 38% increase in anti muslim crimes after trumps election

Does literature generally find a positive or negative economic impact of populism

negative