marketing

three ways to be wrong

1. ignore the problem

2. false positive: Type 1 error

3. false negative: Type 2 error

false positive: type 1 error

• calling a bad opportunity good

• results in waste of resources due to misunderstanding

false negative: type 2 error

• Passing up a good opportunity

• leaving an opportunity on the table because we cant see its good

• often escapes the notice of others

• more damaging than other issues

false positive type 1 example

when a credit card compnay issues a notice that a trqansaction has occured that doesnt fit the ordinary pattern

• rather risk pbother the person than accepting a fraud theft opposed to accepting the more money they make

rational format

priorizite wich errors are least costly

Decision making process

1. define the problem

2. decide to fix it

3. do everything to fix it

identify the probelm

1. why are we doing this

2. whats the purpose

3. how will we achieve sucess

4. why am i failing

5. how can i fix it

scientific method

ongoing process:

1. make obervation

2. think of intresting questions

3. formulate hypothesis

4. develop testable predictions

5. gather data to test predictions

6. 5 redifine alter expand regect hypthes go back to 5

7. develop general theories

scientific method book

theory

sampling

measurment

experimental design

data colelction

pattern discovery

implementation

evaluation

sampling

• base of triangle

• can i generalize from this?

• who knows the awnswer?

• do my responders represent everyone properly?

• equal chance of selection?

measurement

• second from bottom

• have i measured the important things?

• valid truthful, reliable repeatable, useful?

• how good are my measures?

experimental design

• 3rd from bottom

• can we attribute the different result to a different treatment?

• did a cause b?

data collection

4th from bottom

• uniabsed?

• yeilds data responsive to my problem?

pattern discovery

• 5th from bottom

• analysis fit the data colelcted?

• provides actionable results?

• answers our question?

implementation

6th from bottom

• bad in practice=bad in game

• who will this work on?

• can we replicate the lab settong?

• explantion=prediction?

evalution

top of pyramid

• how accurate was our prediction?

• cause and effect correct?

• what else was impacted?

• how to imporove next time?

SMED PIE bottoms up

sampling

measurment

experimental design

data collection

pattern discovery

implementation

evaluation

what we use in smed pie

sampling

measurment

data colelction

pattern data discover

evalution

what do current graduate lacks

• critical thinking skills

• attention to deatail

• communication

• writing skills

• ownership

thinking critically: objective analysis and evalution of an issue in order to form a judgement

• open midness

• respect evidence and reasoning

• cognitive flexibility: condisder different perspective

• not stuck on one position

• skepticism

• clarity and precision

false equivalency

A logical fallacy that wrongly assumes two things are equal or comparable, even though they have significant differences. It disregards the nuances and context that make them distinct, leading to flawed reasoning and faulty arguments.

logical fallacies

innocent and wrong v lie with stats

disprove ur agrument

either illegitimate arguments or irrelevant points, and are often identified because they lack evidence that supports their claim.

ecological fallacy

• inferences about the nature of individuals are deduced from inferences about the group to which those individuals belong

• sampling of a popultion lets a few speak for many

ecological fallacy example

• one of the business professors was busted form embesselment thefore alll busineess ppl are snakes

gamblers fallacy

• believing that unrelated occurrences are dependent upon each other

• mistaken belief that previous outcomes in a random event can influence future outcomes.

gamblers fallacy example

• thinking that if a coin has landed on heads multiple times in a row, it is more likely to land on tails in the next flip. In reality, each coin flip is independent and has a 50% chance of landing on either heads or tails, regardless of previous outcomes.

• umpires calling a pitch a ball after a lot of consecutive strike

strawman

• misrepented somes argument to make it easier to attack

• easier to present yout own position as beign resonable

• exaggerating, misrepreeitn or lying about somones argument

ad hominem

• attack oppents charecter or personal traits in attempt to undermine their argument

• casting doubt on their charector to discreditut their argument

personal incredulity

• because you found something difficult to understan or are unaware of how it work you made out like its not true

loaded question

• you asks a question that had presumption built into it so that it couldnt be anwsered without apearing guilty

• recipient of is compelled to defend themselves and may apear flustered or taken aback

black or white

• you present two alternative states as the only possibilities when in fact more possibities exist

• false dilema

black or white example

You're either with us or against us." This fallacy oversimplifies a complex issue by excluding any other potential positions or perspectives. It fails to acknowledge the possibility of a nuanced or moderate stance.

red herring

• something that misleads or distract from a relevent or importanrt question

red herring example

when a politician is asked about their stance on a controversial topic and instead of answering the question, they start talking about an unrelated topic to divert attention.

errors in logic dont beleive these

• when will i ever use stats

• 80% of a good solution is good enoguh

• things will never get that bad

• there are no great choices so i will sit out

all these are exuses to stop thinking

sequential decisions errors

mistakes or inaccuracies that occur when making a series of decisions in a specific order or sequence. These errors can arise due to various factors such as cognitive biases, lack of information, flawed decision-making processes, or external influences. It is important to identify and minimize sequential decision errors to improve the overall effectiveness and efficiency of decision-making processes.

sequential decisions errors example

One example is the "gambler's fallacy." This occurs when an individual believes that previous outcomes in a random process will influence future outcomes, even though each event is independent and unrelated. For instance, if someone repeatedly loses in a game of chance, they may mistakenly believe that their chances of winning increase with each subsequent attempt. However, in reality, the outcome of each event remains statistically independent, and past results do not affect future probabilities.

derivatives

combination of computing power and intellectual prohress led to the creation of whole new markets in finacial future and options made quanitative analysis as opposed to gut feel the respecrable way to go about making bets on the market

moneyball

• inefficiency caused by sloppy data(opportunity)

• questions the meaning of bb stats(conventional wisdom

• define the goal- identify the problem(dependent variable)

• know the true value of perfomance(solve an old problem in new way)

• extract the element of luck(reduce error & optimize)

old school baseball biz

• focus on the best selling product

• create value(solve a problem better)

• emphasize customer satisfaction

• make financial available(remove barries)

• ever improving target marketing(reduce error)

marketing goal of trucks

create awarness sed prospects to website

channels of trucks

all digital

• google searcg

• auto trader

• trade association

• facebook post and ads

sucess of trucks

• clickes

• likes

• reviews

• conversaions

• cost/sale by chanel

chenels cost/sale trucks

customers-look alike-distribute-click through

optimizing facebooks tarfeting

customers

look alaike(indiviual purchale model aggregated to zip)

distribute(who how selceted

click thoguh(decreas cost)

score card modeling

give value to certain charecteristics

individual (direct marketing) targeting

• customers:

  • some more desirble than others

  • profit

  • advocates

  • ltv

  • we control and optimize

• look alike:

  • who didnt respond

  • we control and optimize

• distribute

  • we control and optimize

• conversion ourchase profit ect

lifted trucks problem solving:

• increase marginal targeting control(opportunity)

• question click based metrics as campaign drivers(conventional wisdom)

• question the congruence of favebook goals with ours(dependent variable)

• know the true value of a prospect potential (solve an old problem in a new way)

• suck less(reduce error and optimize)

optimize by reducin error systematically

whats the business case

reduction of error optimizes marketing

innovation: what is it really

a new solution or perspective to an old problem

marketing optimization

systematic approach scientific method

measurment craft long

descibe its charector, psycology, history, power, grace, glory, consistency, sacrafice, courage, succes, falure, frustration, bad luck, ambition, overeaching, diabline

multi dimensional nuanced

measurment craft

• collection and desgin of data

• planning is 95% of success

B=f(e,p)

behavior is a function of our enviroment and our predispositions

Qualitative data

not so concerened with scaled or numberic data but a directional sense for our topic

quantitative

assinging values to aspects that cause/effect the phenomenon

when to use qualitative reasearch:

• lack specific theory

• arent sure how to form a construct

• jsut starting to explore why people do what they do(explain

• even what is it they do(describe)

how to conduct qualitative reaserch:

• in-depth interview: explore the topic in a free rangign loosely structure format

• focus groups: gather smalll groups of relevant consumers to react tpo specific questions still exploratory and intructive of qualitive design

• observational unobstritopn npt asking questions but searcing in hwat wre can see

measurment craft: direct survey or interview

• in peson

• by mail

• online

• phones

• in groups

measurment craft: inderect observed without interaction

• secondary data

• Anonymous

indirect methods: content analysis

social meadia:

• indexing words patterns

• keyword serch

• linking content(meaning substence

to text streams

thematic analysis

indirect methods: Secondary data analysis

• can be compiled from several sources to from a uique database

• can be mered modeled from survey or other primary data

• allows re analysis of the same research question over time

hight content data

• doesnt have to be complex

• just structured and relevent

correlation answer

• as A changes so does B in whcih direction and by how much

regression answers

how much variance in B does A explain

qualitative research help us form an initial theory

• what are the questions we need to ask to validate or refute

• how can we sneak up on ourt topic without bias to the responder

• how ca we creatively explore the concepts involved

measurement craft: TOP

theory → operationalize→ constructs

theory

getting on base is more important to a good season than defensive skill

operationalize

what are the observable(operational aspects of a theoretical concept

theory → operationalize→ constructs in practice

getting on base is more impontant to a good szn than defensive skill

get on base:hits,walks,hbp

good szn:make plaoffs, more wins than loss,95+ wins

defensive skill:errors made,double plays stikeouts

constructs

measured attempts to capute a concept

OPERATIONALIZE examples in practice

emotional ads have a greater effect than those stressing economic befinifts

• what can we observe to construct each of these concepts

• operationally how can we measure each one

• are there differnt ways to measure each aspect

construc are operationalized by questions

• how do we coneive the phenonmenon?

• nominal- balcka nd white, categories

• is it measurable at a higher mroe detailed level?

• we can always reduce a measurment but we can never expand it

levels of measurment,worst to best

• nominal

• ordinal

• interval

• ratio

nominal

• attributes are only name

• weakest

  ex. did u run in the race? yes or no?

ordinal

attributes can be prdered

ex. what placed did u come in the race

interval

distance is meaningful

ex. time between first and second place and other positions

ratio

absolute zero

likert scales def

psychometric scale commonly used in surveys and questionnaires to measure attitudes or opinions. It consists of a series of statements or items that respondents rate on a scale, typically ranging from "strongly agree" to "strongly disagree." The responses are then assigned numerical values, allowing for quantitative analysis of the data. provide a structured way to assess subjective constructs and are widely used in social sciences, market research, and other fields to gather and analyze data on people's attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions.

likert scales

• easy to respond to

• several uni dimensional measure froma batter

• odd or even scaling with or without midpoint

• often attitudinal or belief based

• allows us to discover suprose associations: things we didnt know were related

the shallows blah

unified theoru of the univerus

brain cells look like trees

neaural plasticity

ability of neural networks in the brain to change through growth and reorganization when the brain rewired to function in som way from how it previously functioned

our fear: makign both kinds of errors

• false positives: wirign unhelpful circuits

• false engative: bot wiring more helpful circuits

distractions

• someones good/necessecary

• sleep on it- let subconscious figure things out

social psucological complications

• lack of nature time limits evolutionary development

• online develops qualitatively differnt relationships

• opportunity cost

• increased suspicion

• incresed deception

• anti scoial

• revoeralbel

smart phones destoy a generation

• physcially safer than ever

• lesss drinking and also driving

• less social

• less sex

• working less

• homebodies, less time with friends

• distraction on purpose

• addicted

• fomo

• unhappy

• depressed

• less indipented

• minds consume with a medium

t→o→c for social media

• develop theory we can test

• any truth to it

• are the authors right

• are they misisng things

• is there more to the sotry

• is social media waning

12%

young AMERICANS CANT FIND work

critical thinking/problem solving: why its importnat

• how all orgs are able to function properly

• intead of giving up they find a new way to fix the problem

• you dont have to know everything

• have multuple solutions

critical thinking/problem solving: how to get it

• supposed to be taught during college

• college hower often teach to be right than to learn

• internships, volunteer campus orgs all help u gain this skill

attention to detail: why its important

• second most popylar skill grads lack

• shows u take the time to ensure every job u do is complete nearly perfectly and u took time to do so

• obsevsional and dedication

attention to detail:how to get it

• dont only focus on the big picture

• deliver quality work even on uniportant stuff

• high quality work

communication:why its important

• 3rd on the list

• very important to have

• listeing

• figureing out what tyoe is needed for the situation

• 50% of language is non verbal

• recnlty grads lack body language and use more emojies

communication: how to get it

• talk more with ppl outside ur generation, you dont know

• take notes on how they respond

• what vocab do they use

• builds rapport with coworkers

writing skills: why its importnatn

• 4th on the list

• need to know how to make a point and make it well

• basic grmmar and written etiquette

writing skills: how to get it

• read more essays, emails,

• expose yuorself to good writing

• be aware of your audience

ownership: why its importnant

• 5th on th elist

• tied with leadership

• take responispitu

• you have to initiate

• dependable and trustworhty

• hold youself accountable

• reflection of work ethic

ownership: how to get it

• in college with group projects

• start a project