LESSON 5

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL (DTM)

TRANSFORMATION high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates .

-POPULATION TRENDS

(Warren Thompson (1929) and Frank Notestein (1945))

THEORY Shows correlation between economic

STAGE 1 (HIGH STATIONARY)

High birth & death rates, low population growth

STAGE 2 (EARLY EXPANDING)

Death rates decline, birth rates remain high → rapid population growth

-Sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan.

STAGE 3 (LATE EXPANDING)

Birth rates begin to fall, growth slows

• PHILIPPINES

STAGE 4 (LOW STATIONARY)

Low birth & death rates, stable population

- United States, Australia.

STAGE 5 (DECLINING)

Birth rates fall below death rates → population decline (not part of original model)

-Japan, Germany, Italy.

FACTORS INFLUENCING TRANSITION

1. Economic development

2. Healthcare improvements

3. Urbanization

4. Cultural and religious beliefs

5. Government policies (e.g., China’s one-child policy)

Eurocentric model:

Based on Western Europe’s experience.

May not apply universally:

Cultural, political, and economic factors differ. assumes all countries will follow the same path

Malthusian theory (THOMAS ROBERT MALTHUS)

Population growth will always tend to outpace the supply of food.

Population tends to grow exponentially while food production increases only linearly.

Boserupian theory (ESTER BOSERUP)

population density increases and resources grow scarce, humans respond with creativity and technological advancement.

Dependency ratio

demographic indicator that measures the proportion of dependents (people typically not in the labor force)

YOUTH DEPENDENCY RATIO

requires significant investment in education, healthcare, and childcare.

OLD-AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO

demands more resources for pensions, healthcare, and long-term care.

FACTORS AFFECTING LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION

DEMOGRAPHICS

EDUCATION LEVELS

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

AUTOMATION

GOVERNMENT POLICIES

PRONATALIST POLICIES

increase the birth rate, especially in countries facing declining population growth, low fertility rates, or aging demographics.

IMPACTS OF PRONATALIST POLICIES:

POSITIVE

• Increased birth rates

• More working-age population

• Support for family well-being

IMPACTS OF PRONATALIST POLICIES:

NEGATIVE

• High financial cost

• Uncertain effectiveness

• Risk of overpopulation:

• Social pressure

ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES

discourage high birth rates and reduce population

VOLUNTARY ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES

non-coercive and depend on the active consent and participation of the population.

COERCIVE ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES

compulsory or forced measures by the government to limit the number of children families can have. These policies often infringe on human rights

IMPACTS OF ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES:

POSITIVE

• Reduced strain on resources.

• Improved health and education.

• Environmental benefits.

IMPACTS OF PRONATALIST POLICIES:

NEGATIVE

• Violation of human rights

• Gender imbalances

• Aging population and workforce shortage

• Social resentment and mistrust

MIGRATION POLICIES

regulates the entry, residence, and employment

• encourage immigration through liberal policies or limit it

Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the UK

invited millions of foreign workers, primarily from Southern Europe, North Africa, and Asia,

IMPACTS OF IMMIGRATION POLICIES:

POSITIVE

• Addresses labor shortages

• Economic growth

• Demographic balance

• Cultural enrichment

IMPACTS OF PRONATALIST POLICIES:

NEGATIVE

• Integration difficulties

• Pressure on public services

• Political backlash

• Security concerns