APES Study Guide Chapter 8

Human population and Logistic Growth

dt/dN​=rN(1−K/N​)

The “Packing Problem” approach

50 billion Earth’s carrying capacity in terms of how many humans can physically “fit” on the planet if resources and space were distributed evenly

The “Deep Ecology” movement

environmental philosophy which promotes the inherent worth of all living beings, regardless of their instrumental utility to human needs, plus the restructuring of modern human societies in accordance with such ideas

Prophecy of Thomas Malthus

An Essay on the Principle of Population, warned that human population growth would outpace food production, leading to widespread famine, disease, and death. If the population grows exponentially, while resources increase arithmetically, creating an inevitable "Malthusian catastrophe". Delay marriage to slow pop.

How Many People Can Earth Support? Identify and briefly describe three major factors that demographers likely consider in attempting to answer this question

8-10 billion Resources, Environmental impact, Quality of life

equation for calculating population change

Population change = (births+immigration)-(death+emigration)/ initial population (100)

ZPG stands for

zero population growth

What is crude birth rate and what makes this value “crude”? 

Number of live births per 1,000 people in a given year- it doesn’t consider other factors such as age and sex

What is crude death rate and what makes this value “crude”?

Number of deaths per 1,000 people in a given year- it doesn’t consider other factors such as age and sex

Calculate the annual rate of population change for each of the following: Annual Rate Pop. Change (%)

Globally: crude birth rate is 22; crude death rate is 9

(22−9)​/10​=1.3%

Determine the rate of population change for a country which begins a year with 1 million people and has 1675 births, 450 deaths, 325 immigrants, and 150 emigrants in a given year: 

(1657+325)-(450+15)/ 1,000,000 (100)= 0.14%

Globally, over the last 100 years, which have dropped more dramatically, birth rates or death rates? Provide three significant reasons for this

Death rates, we have new technology and medical care, increased food production/ nutrition, and increased sanitation

 In 1963, the global growth rate was 2.2%; in 2000, global growth rate was 1.35%. Currently, globally growth rate is approximately ___%

0.87%

Given a starting population of 7.8 billion people and using the global growth rate of 1.1%, how many people would be added to the planet in a given year?

85.5 million

Given a starting population of 330 million in a nation and a growth rate of 1.0%, how many people will be added to this country in a given year?

3.3 million

Identify the five most populous nations: (estimated as of Dec. 2023)

India, china, US, Indonesia, Pakistan

 How does replacement-level fertility differ from total fertility rate?

Replacement is the average # of children that couples in the population must bear to replace themselves, while TFR is the average number of children born to women of child bearing age.

Does TFR tend to be higher in developing or developed countries?

developing countries

Describe two likely reasons or factors which contribute to TFRs being higher in the developing countries:

Lack of education, need for labor

Why is replacement-level fertility not equal to 2.0?

The death rate has to be accounted for as well, as well as child mortality rate, and gender differences.

On which continent is TFR the highest?

Africa

Describe the demographic transition model?

Describes the changes in birth rates, death rates, and population growth as countries industrialize and develop- Preindustrial, Early transition, late transition, industrial, post industrial

Stage 1: High birth and death rates, stable population.

Stage 2: High birth rates, declining death rates, rapid population growth.

Stage 3: Declining birth rates, low death rates, slower population growth.

Stage 4: Low birth and death rates, stable or slow population growth.

Stage 5: Very low birth rates, low death rates, potential population decline.

When was the so-called baby boom in the United States?

1946-1964

When was the so-called echo boom in the United States?

1982-2000

major factors affecting birth rates and fertility rates

Child labor, cost of raising and educating children, pension system; finance old people, urbanization, education and work for women, average age of marriage, contraceptives, culture/religion

 Describe two potential effects of advances in medicine on the demographic transition

It can increase birth rates since infant mortality rates decrease, and death rates will increase.

The rapid growth of the world’s population over the last 100 years is primarily the result of

declining death rates

Provide three fundamental reasons which briefly explain how decline in death rate

has come about:

New agricultural practices, new medicine tech, better sanitation

Name the two most useful indicators of overall health of people in a country or region

life expectancy and infant mortality rate- (most important)

Describe why population age structure diagrams are important in making population growth estimates.

To account for the majority of ages and how it can affect the future, for example if there are less young people the TFR will go down since there are less reproductive people

 Identify the three age categories

Pre Reproductive (0-14), reproductive (15-44), post reproductive (45+)

The four general types of age structure diagrams:

Expanding rapidly, explanding slowly, stable, declining

Comparison of key demographic indicators in a:

-highly developed:

-less developed country:

-highly developed: low birth and death rates, high life expectancy, and low infant mortality rates

-less developed country: birth rates high, death rates decline slowly. Life expectancy is lower, and infant mortality rates are higher

Argument for slowing population growth

Will slow down environment degradation, allow better quality of life for others

Argument for NOT slowing population growth

Will allow older people to be supported and cared for

Garrett Hardin’s perspective on human population growth and carrying capacity

human population growth could exceed Earth's carrying capacity, leading to environmental degradation

Case Study Thailand

population growth rate reduction: (3.2% to 1.6% from 1971 to 1986, then down to 1.0% by year 2000.) government family planning programs, which promoted contraception, increased access to education (particularly for women), and improved healthcare, which helped reduce infant mortality

Case Study India

1.35 bill, Many live in poverty, has the 4th largest economy, many people don’t use contraception, and many people have kids till a son is born

Case Study China

1.39 bill, massive starvation foreseen, 1978 implemented one child rule- gov supplied anti birth options, many girls were aborted and males were dominant

United Nations Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, Egypt, 1994: Population Plan (goals/policies/actions/recommendations): The First international meeting regarding this particular topic / challenge / question:

Addressing global population challenges through a human-centered approach. Key goals included improving access to reproductive health, promoting gender equality, and encouraging sustainable development. The conference recommended empowering women through education, healthcare, and family planning, shifting from population control to rights-based, voluntary policies

“The Broad Base and Built-in Momentum”: challenges and opportunities

fosters inclusivity, scalability, and resilience through diversity, it also requires careful coordination, resource management, and sustained effort to maintain focus and momentum. When leveraged effectively, it can drive long-term impact and widespread engagement despite potential complexities.

Other Countries currently in the Top 10

Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico

Cultural Carrying Capacity

Accounts for quality of life in carrying capacity

global TFR vs. U.S.

2.3 -vs.- ~1.6

Environmental Refugees

Migrants leaving their country because of enviromental issues like a typhoon, or earth quake

under nutrition vs malnutrition

not enough; not healthy/ nutritous

Problems with rapid population decline

slow econ growth, labor shortages, less government revenues, less buisness, less tech, increace in public deficits to fund pensions

Family planning

educational services and clinical services

Methods to reduce population growth

education, access to contraceptives, provide better medical care, educate women, family planning

Kris and Doug Tompkins

bought land in chile and reformed it to bring back spieces and recontrsuct the natural ecosystems.

Shane Campbell

Ted Talk on the adaptive features of animals, and how human interactions and advancments have changed them. Ex african elephant

Road to sustainability

Haiti and poverty: fuel wood crisis

Donlan’s proposal

rewilding north america

Billion milestones

1800, 1920, 1960, 1874, 1987, 1999, 2011, 2022 → 2037, 2061 Peak at 10 Billion