Day 4: Polling

Poll

A human research survey of opinion on a particular question from a particular sample of people.

Pollster

A person or organization that conducts polls.

Exit Polls

Polls asking voters who they voted for as they leave the voting precincts.

Internal Polls

Polls conducted by campaigns, often in swing states.

Registered Voters (RVs)

Individuals who are officially registered to vote.

Likely Voters (LVs)

The smaller number of people who say 'yes' when asked if they plan to vote.

Margin of Error

An accounting for sampling error in polling.

Sampling Error

The potential difference in responses from a different group of 1000 people.

Response Bias

When supporters of one candidate might be less likely to participate in a poll.

Demographic Weighting

The process of adjusting poll results to account for a disproportionate number of certain demographic groups.

Polling Period

A poll is usually taken over a 2-4 day period.

Polling Sample Size

Most polls call until about 1000-2000 responses are received.

Question Wording

The phrasing of questions must be neutral and not confusing.

Question Order

The sequence of questions can condition respondents to answer in a particular way.

Polling Organizations

Entities like news organizations or colleges that conduct polls, such as Gallup Inc. or YouGov.

Polling Method

Pollsters call random people on the phone, both landlines and cell.

Polling Dates

The dates next to a poll are always the dates that people were surveyed.

Pew Research Surveys

Surveys used in Political Profiles to gauge public opinion.

Famous Gallup Question

A question from 1937: 'Would you vote for a woman for president if she were otherwise qualified?'

Polling Examples

Examples of polling organizations include The Hill/Emerson College and ABC News/Washington Post.

Polling average

A method of combining multiple polls to produce a more accurate representation of public opinion, accounting for different margins of error and weighting.

Polling trend

A representation of how candidates' poll numbers change over time, often shown as an average of multiple polls.

Horse race

Media reporting that focuses on which candidate is ahead in polls rather than on the issues at stake.

Narrative

The story or context surrounding a candidate's standing in polls, which can influence public perception and media coverage.

Bandwagon effect

A psychological phenomenon where people are more likely to support a candidate they perceive as winning.

Pollster bias

The tendency of some pollsters to favor one candidate over another, potentially skewing results to benefit that candidate.

Crosstabs

Cross-tabulation data in polls that provides demographic information about a candidate's supporters.

Sample size

The number of respondents included in a survey, which affects the reliability of the poll's results.

Accurate poll

A poll that correctly reflects the opinions of the population it aims to represent.

Survey

A method of collecting data from a group of respondents to gather information about their opinions or behaviors.

Political reporting

The journalistic practice of covering news related to politics, including elections and polling data.

Polling organization

An entity that conducts surveys and polls to gauge public opinion on various issues or candidates.

Polling results

The data obtained from a survey that indicates the preferences or opinions of respondents.

Statistical significance

A measure of whether the results of a poll are likely to reflect the true opinions of the population, often indicated by a confidence level.

Confidence level

The probability that the results of a poll fall within the margin of error, typically expressed as a percentage.

Response rate

The percentage of people who respond to a poll out of the total number contacted.

Polling methodology

The techniques and processes used to conduct a poll, including sampling methods and question design.

Political candidate

An individual running for political office who is the subject of polling and public opinion surveys.

Voter demographics

The statistical characteristics of voters, including age, gender, race, and socioeconomic status, which can influence polling results.