2 - The demand and supply of illicit drugs

Which countries have the highest prevalence of cannabis use in Europe last year?

France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, and Croatia

Three measures of drug use prevalence commonly used

Lifetime, last year, last month

Problem drug use as defined by EMCDDA

Injecting drug use or long duration/regulation use of opioids, cocaine, and/or amphetamines

Pareto rule

Roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes - the 80/20 rule

e.g. in the US 25% of users are responsible for about 70% of cocaine consumption

e.g. about 3 million people, less than 1% of the population, consume about 80% of illegal hard drugs

Drug users by age group

16-19 and 20-24 are the main users - general decrease over time

problematic drug users are usually older than the occasional users as it takes time to develop a dependancy

Gateway hypothesis

tobacco/alcohol leads to cannabis which leads to heroin/cocaine

Drug users in reality

Men (but a small difference with women in Western countries), young, live in urban areas, non-violent and do not commit crimes, occasional users, and use multiple drugs

Drug trafficker stereotypes

Cartels, Mr Bigs or King Pins at the top, predatory, 'cut' drugs with dangerous substances, violent, pyramid structure, heavily structured

In reality drug-dealing organisations are

Small in size and highly decentralised

Why are drug-dealing organisations decentralised?

Prioritises security by having no one person in charge

Resilience to law enforcement as incarcerated traffickers can be easily replaced

Positives to law enforcement of decentralised networks

Lack of innovation and promotion - do not operate as an economy of scale

Whilst secure it is inefficient

Reasons for high costs of illicit drugs

Structural consequences of the product being illegal and compensation for non-monetary risks, such as arrest and violence

Myth of drug cutting/adulteration

All drugs are ‘cut’ but nearly all cutting substances are less harmful than the drug - the most dangerous drug is the one which is 100% pure

Drug trafficking organisations in reality

Small, highly decentralised, inefficient (but good at improvising), resilient, security as a priority, ephemeral (short lasting), violent reputations, sell to willing buyers, and sell cut but not dangerous substances