Public Opinion and Polling FINAL

Gaps between U.S. public opinion and what government does or doesn’t do (examples)

Recreational marijuana, Climate change, abortion.

Developments that have made U.S. election polls less reliable

Disinformation and polling fatigue, non response problem, less landlines

The “real” problem with election polls (Clawson & Oxley)

1. Media does not adequately explain polls or provide the public with information to assess poll validity

   1. Treating politics like a horse race (who’s up and down while ignoring issues and policy)

2. Pollsters have to contact ever larger number of people to get a representative sample

Factors that determine a polls accuracy

Timing of pre-election polls, treatment of undecided voters, estimation of voter turnout, Changing political and economic climate.

Characteristics associated with a person’s likelihood to vote

Educated individuals, Wealthy, women, older citizens, registered to vote, voted previously, Intuition to vote, Interests in elections, awareness of candidates.

Gender and public opinion (empirical trends)

1. Women tend to vote more liberal, especially on issues like healthcare, education, and social welfare. 

2. Men tend to vote more conservative with stronger support for policies related to defense business and lower government intervention

Race/ethnicity and public opinion (empirical trends)

Pluralist theory on how groups influence public opinion

Pluralist theory underscores the dynamic role that groups play in shaping public opinion. While the competition among diverse organizations can enrich democratic discourse, it also raises questions about equity and representation. Understanding this interplay helps to illuminate the mechanisms through which collective opinions are formed and translated into political action.

Ideology (types, where they stand on gov. intervention in the economy & where they stand on individual behavioral liberty & sexual equality)

1. Liberalism

   1. Moderate to high on Gov intervention

   2. Strong support for individual liberty

   3. Strong support for sexual equality

2. Conservatism

   1. Low to moderate on gov intervention

   2. Limited support on indv liberty

   3. Support formal equality only

3. Socialist

   1. High support for gov intervention

   2. Moderate on indv. Liberty

   3. Strong support for sexual equality

4. Libertarianism

   1. Low support for gov intervention 

   2. Very strong on indiv liberty

   3. Support legal equality

5. Feminism

   1. Moderate to high for gov intervention 

   2. Strong support for indiv liberty

   3. Central focus for sexual equality

Critique of polls (Ginsberg)

1. They may reflect elite influence more than public sentiment 

   1. Polls may reflect media and policy maker discourse

   2. Elites are agenda setting, priming, framing

   3. Argues polling can weaken the influence of public opinion in a democratic society, in part, because polling is viewed as scientific and representative of the public and dominates/obscures types of public expression. 

      1. Demonstrations and protest, social media campaigns, and interest group activities

What are polls good for? (Clawson & Oxley)

1. Determining problems that citizens care about, rather than solutions. 

2. Roles of citizens: communicate broad objectives to policy makers

3. Roles of elites: determine how best to accomplish those objectives

Political knowledge (what it is & areas of importance)

1. Only meaningful in democratic society

   1. Rules of the game

   2. Substance

   3. People and the players (interest groups and parties)

Participatory democratic theory on political knowledge (argument & assumptions)

1. Position on political knowledge

   1. Need to make informed decisions

   2. High levels of knowledge required to keep elites accountable

Elite democratic theory on political knowledge (argument & assumptions)

1. Irrational for citizens to spend time on politics because building political knowledge is costly in time & effort

   1. Citizens can get by with limited levels of political knowledge

      1. Use shortcuts to make decisions, take cues from parties, politicians, groups & movements to figure out where they stand

Rational choice theory vs. bounded rationality

1. Rational Choice Theory

   1. Assuming that people will make decisions according to a cost benefit analysis. 

      1. Presents humanity as hyperrational or homoeconomicus

      2. Big problem: people lack access to complete or quality information. 

   2. Rests on the assumption that all individuals are economically rational. 

      1. Discounts how human emotion can short circuit our rationality

2. Bounded Rationality: (rational choice “lite”)

   1. Individuals rationality is limited, national individuals will select a decision that is satisfactory rather than optimal 

   2. Critique: what about false consciousness?

Civil liberties & tolerance (definition & examples)

1. Guarantees and freedoms that gov’t commit not to abridge. 

   1. Enshrined in 

      1. Constitution

      2. Legislation

      3. Judicial interpretation

   2. 1st amendment 

      1. Freedom of speech, protest, religion, press, petition gov for redress of grievance

Free marketplace of ideas & Overton window

1. View that the truth will emerge from competition of ideas in free transparent public discourse

2. The shift of respectable speech

   1. Provides normative restrictions on the marketplace of ideas

Utilitarian liberty (definition & examples)

The idea that individual liberty should only be restricted when it impinges on the liberty of others.

Civil rights (definition & examples)

Gov’t guarantees of equality for citizens with regard to judicial proceedings, exercise of political right, treatment by public officials and access to enjoyment of gov programs

Sociological representation (definition & trends in U.S. gov.)

1. Refers to the degree elected officials look like or reflect the diversity of society. 

   1. Supported by participatory theorists

   2. Elite theorists point to elections for lack of diversity