A Level Edexcel UK Politics : Chapter 4 Voting behaviour and the Media

Voting Behaviour

The trends in how people generally vote - Social Factors - explain how people vote

*Understanding voters' behaviours

Key Terminology Chapter 4

mandate

the authority a party has to implement their manifesto promises following a successful general election

Partisan dealignment

people no longer identify with a political party

Dissillusion/ apathy

a process over time which people disengage with politics and political activity because they don't have faith that politicians are able to solve their issues

what is class alignment

the relationship between social class and a political party

*voting for a party based on the social class you belong to.

Class dealignment

a person no longer identifies with a certain class

people no longer vote for a political party based on which social class they belong to

What is the bandwagon effect (voting)

people support a party/candidate because they have a lead in the opinion polls - that's who most people are voting for

What is the Boomerang effect (voting)

people for vote for a party that is behind in the polls because they want to back the underdog

- Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 amongst young people

What is the dominant ideology model

voters are persuaded by dominant groups (the press) to accept something that benefits these dominant groups

What is elitism

political power is held by a small elite group

What is embourgeoisement

when working class people become wealthier, they start having middle class values

What is the exit poll

a poll taken after people have already voted (when they are leaving the polling booth)

They use bigger samples and are more accurate

What is a Grey Voter

people over the age of 65+

They turn out to vote more than other age groups

What is a swing vote

a swing voter is a voter who changes who they vote for in-between elections

What is an opinion poll

a poll used to gauge what people's attitudes are at a period in time.

What is pluralism

diverse and competing voices can have influence on the government - political power is shared.

What is the prospective model

people vote for the party that they believe will raise their living standards

What is a quota sample

a sample where people are chosen selectively to reflect the country

e.g., there will be (x) number of women (x) number of ethnicities.

What is a random sample

everyone has an equal chance of being selected in the study

People are chosen at random.

What is a Shy Tory

someone who does not declare that they support the Conservative party in an opinion poll - they are too embarrassed

What are the 5 general social factors

Class, gender, age, ethnicity and region

What is Social Class

how people are classified based on their job and their income

What are the 4 social classes

AB: Higher and Intermediate professional jobs - bankers, doctors, company directors

C1: Junior Managerial - Teachers, social workers

C2: Skilled manual labourers: plumbers, hairdressers

DE: Semi-skilled and unskilled Labour: Labourers, call centre staff

What is a floating voter

It's difficult to predict who the voter will vote for in elections.

They change the way they vote often

They do not align with a specific party

What is a Manifesto

a document used by a political party to set out the policies they would like to implement if it is successful in the general election

Social Class and Voting

Which Party did the working class typically vote for

Labour

Upper and Middle Class voted Conservative

Why was class so important to how people voted

The Conservatives were seen to serve the interests of the Middle/Upper Class

Labour: party of the working class.

Parties had deep roots in communities - Wealthier cities in London had Conservative attitudes

What is class dealignment?

people no longer vote based on their social class/ they do not identify with a social class

What is partisan dealignment

people become less loyal to a political party - they no longer identify themselves with a political party

Evidence of Partisan dealignment

In 1964 what percentage of DE voted Labour

64%

In 1997 what percentage of DE voted Labour

59%

In 2019 what percentage of DE voted Conservative

39%

In 1964 what percentage of AB voted Conservative

78%

In 1997 what percentage of AB voted Conservative

59%

What are the reasons for the decline in class-based voting

Class Dealignment

Post 1980's the 3 main political parties have become more centrist - and they appeal to more people/not just one class

Other factors have become more important - Conservative 2019 General Election

In 2019 what percentage of AB voted Conservative

45%

Explain the relationship between Class and Turnout

Lower Classes - C2/DE are less likely to vote than AB and C1

Relate to education, lower classes feel that their vote does not matter as much, do not feel represented and feel disconnected from politics.

What percentage of DE voters voted in 2019

53%

What percentage of AB voters voted in 2019

68%

What are Core Voters

voters who will always support a political party due to background/family loyalty

Why are Core voters shrinking

Changes in economic and social standing = partisan dealignment: People don't identify with a political party anymore

Gender

Political parties aim to target women - encourage women to vote

*It's not clear whether there is a woman's vote - women vote on non-gender related issues

What did Labour do in 2015 to encourage more women to vote

A woman-to-woman pink minibus travelled to 75 different constituencies tried to encourage more women to vote.

What did Tony Blair and David Cameron pledge to do

increase the number of Female MPs in parliament by using women only shortlists

women only shortlists - only allowing Female MPs to stand in particular constituencies to increase the number of Female MPs in parliament

What evidence is there that men and women tend to vote the same

In 2019: 46% of men voted Conservative: 43% of women voted Conservative

Why Pre-1997 did Women often vote Conservative

1970's and 1980's Conservative Party - was the party of the housewife - Tory Party promised to keep prices low to allow women to run their home economically

*The majority of women during this time were housewives

Education

Before 1960's not many people went to University or sat their A Levels

Age and voting

Younger people are more progressive and support wider social issues - environmental protection, democratic reform, social justice and will vote for more Progressive parties and younger people have less responsibilities - more outward looking views

The Older you get - the more assets you have and focus on more self-interested issues

In 2019 what percentage of 55-64 voted Conservative

49%

In 2019 what percentage of people aged 55-64 voted Labour

28%

In 2019 what percentage of young people (18-24) voted Conservative

21%

In 2019 what percentage of young people voted Labour

56%

Why don't political parties prioritise the young vote

younger people tend to vote less

*2017 Youth quake - turnout - 54% (15% less than the average)

Ethnicity

*In theory all parties now claim to support racial tolerance and oppose racial discrimination, and favour a mixed society but some parties policies don't reflect this

Race is linked to social class - In the UK more BAME people are classified as DE than AB, C2 and C1 , they'll vote for the Labour party who are historically the party of the working class

More BAME people live in cities - bigger cities are typically more socially Liberal + the Labour party adopted a pro-immigration stance, vs the Conservatives were historically "anti-immigration" - rivers of blood (Historic and economic)

Conservative and the Windrush Scandal 2019

2017 - many commonwealth citizens from the Windrush generation had been detained, deported and denied legal rights because they were classified as "illegal immigrants" - hostile policy against undocumented immigrants - many commonwealth citizens did not have the ID to prove documentation because they had been destroyed by the Home Office *Under Theresa May's governments

What does the Think Tank - British Future suggest about ethnic bias

"Ethnic bias against the Conservative party is waning"

Rwanda Scheme 2019

"Turn back the boats" - Priti Patel

a plan to deport illegal immigrants who had crossed the channel to Rwanda - human rights violation

In 2019 what percentage of BAME voters voted Labour

64%

In 2019 what percentage of BAME voters voted Conservative

20%

region

region - linked to class - people in the South East of England are much wealthier whereas people in the North are much poorer and are older industrial towns

which regions tend to vote Conservative

South East and the Midlands

*South East - 2017 - 54% voted Conservative

*Midlands - 2017 - 50% voted Conservative

which regions tend to vote Labour

North of England and London

2017 - 53% voted Labour

2017 - 55% voted Labour

Turnout

Before 2001 what was the average turnout

Between 70 - 80%

After 2001 - Between 60-70

Why does turnout vary from one election to another

1. How important is the election - is there a lot at stake

2. How close is the election - is it obvious who is going to win

In 2017 what was the voter turnout

69% - an important election

In 2001 what was the voter turnout

59% - people knew Labour was going to win

what is the relationship between age and turnout

younger people are less likely to vote than older people

In 2019 what was the average turnout amongst younger people

47%

65+ - 66%

why don't young people vote

young people are disillusioned with politicis - have no confidence in politicians - politicians only introduce policies to harm

younger people and are apathetic *no faith in the political system

many young people are more focused on singular issues rather than a widespread political ideology - low TO in elections but a high TO in protests and civil disruption

many young people abstain - don't feel represented by either party and don't vote

what happens to TO amongst young people in referendums

it increases

*EU Referendum - 64% of people (18-34) voted

what is the relationship between class and turnout

the higher you're social class the more likely you are to vote

*voter apathy - many DE, C1 don't believe their vote will change the outcome of the election

*people will vote if they understand the issues and how they will affect them in some way

In 2019 what percentage of AB voters voted compared to DE

AB - 68%

DE - 53%

What are the three individual voting theories

valance, rational choice, issue based voting

How did political analyst Peter Kellner describe valance voting

"millions of swing voters don't have a strong view, they don't judge based on manifesto's but on their character, who is honest, who is most likely to deliver on their promises"

what is valance voting

people vote for the party they think is most likely to deliver - governing competency

*how generally competent the previous government was, how competent will other parties be - did they manage the NHS effectively, how will did they manage a crisis

*how economically competent - were they responsible with tax payers money, did the economy prosper

*how strong the leader of the party is

How were Labour punished for the 2008 economic crisis

they have not won a general election since 2010

what is rational choice voting

people vote for the party who they think will act in their personal best interest - which government will deliver policies that will benefit me personally

what is issue voting

voters will decide to vote for a party based on a singular issue that is very important to them - even if they don't agree with the rest of their policies

-E.g. Brexit and the environment

What is a manifesto

a list of policies that a political party plan on introducing if they win government office - the goal is to encourage voters to vote for them

*they contain the parties key beliefs and give the electorate a clear set of issues that the government will be pursuing

Name three factors that affect how individuals vote

Manifestos

Party Leaders

Tactical voting

Name 3 Labour policies from the 2019 Manifesto

a 4.3% per year increase in the health budget

to nationalise key industries - water industry, royal mail and energy providers

to abolish tuition fees for university students

What is the "Doctrine of the mandate"

when a party wins an election and form a government - it has a mandate (consent from the electorate) to introduce the policies they set out in their manifesto

what are the key strengths of the mandate doctrine

electors feel confident that they know what policies they are agreeing too if they vote for a political party.

parliament can hold the government accountable if they are straying from their electoral mandate.

mandate - allows the electorate to assess the performance of the government during general election time - have they delivered

What is problematic about the mandate doctrine

some manifesto commitments are vague and open to interpretation - it's hard to hold the government accountable on a vague manifesto doctrine

circumstances might change when the party takes power - they may have to adapt their manifesto promises

a single party has to win outright - if there is a coalition the mandate is confused.

Why is the image of the party leader very important to voters

because they are choosing the next future Prime Minister

what are the key qualities that the public look for in a future Prime Minister

strong leadership

good communication skills

honesty and sincerity

desciveness

In 2019 which leader the highest net satisfaction rating

Boris Johnson = -1

Jeremy Corbyn = -38

*the image of party leaders and their popularity does impact general elections

What happened to Nick Clegg in 2010 that contradicts this theory

He was the most popular party leader "clegg-mania" - but his party's share of the vote fell by 1%

What is tactical voting

voters vote for a candidate who is more likely to defeat the candidate that they dislike the least rather than voting for the candidate they like the most - to not waste a vote

e.g. Labour supporters vote a Conservative candidate to keep out a UKIP candidate

Left Wing - social media groups will encourage voters to "keep out the Conservatives"- and vote tactically

In 2015 how many constituencies were supposedly effected by tactical voting

77

The Influence of the Media

The Media - the places were messages are received and consumed by the masses

What are the different types of media in Politics

Broadcast - TV and Radio

Press - Newspapers

Social Media

How has the role of the media evolved over time

the traditional role of the media was to investigate/report on events as they happened.

they would explain events to the public - allow them to make their own informed decision

what are public opinion polls

they are a survey of public opinion

*a research organisation will use sample typical voters and establish their voting intentions - they use this to project who they think will win a general election

*also used to establish popularity ratings

Between 1970 and 2019 how many times have opinion polls correctly predicted the outcome of UK general elections

8 times out of 14

what is the "margin of error" in polling