Unit 4 & 5

factors effecting trust in government

economic conditions, political scandals, national security concerns

economic conditions

• Recessions vs Booms, inflation, unemployment/jobs market, etc

political scandals

• Major speaking gaffes, personal improprieties, unpopular laws or enforcement of laws, personal history, corruption etc

current trends in gov confidence

• Tends to swing back and forth depending on a lot of factors

  • Tends to be higher during crises and wartimes (but not always, see Covid), and lower during fierce polarization or rapid social change

impact of media on public perception

• Media shapes perception (it’s not about what you say, it’s about what people think you said)

  • Modern era this is more true than ever with differing and emerging types of media (social media included)

political socialization

Process of developing political values and beliefs

key agents of socialization

• Family

• Education

  • Where as well as level

• Peer groups

  • Age groups, other demographics, educational level, region

• Media

  • Especially today, as mentioned previously, type of media plays a big role

• Religious institutions

  • Churched vs unchurched, denomination attended, length of attendance, regularity of attendance

liberal v conservative spectrum

Key to understand that it is a spectrum/continuum not easily defined clear boxes or categories

moderate and independence positions

• Recently seem to be becoming more polarized but still sizeable portion of moderates

• Parties don’t always align liberal vs conservative 

  • Many positions don’t align with either major party and can be labeled independent

key ideological differences

• Role of government

• Individual rights

• Economic policy

• Social issues

changes in political ideology

• Generational shifts

• Impact of major events:

  • Great Depression

  • Civil Rights Movement

  • 9/11

  • Great Recession

  • COVID-19 pandemic

  • Demographic trends

demographic trends

• Certain demographics are usually more conservative or more liberal, more likely to be Republican or more likely to be Democrat

  • Important to note these are purely statistical analyses and people remain individuals

types of polls

• Random sampling

• Stratified sampling (samples by demographic groups then random within groups)

  • Exit polls (leaving polling places or similar)

margin of error

• Mathematical certainty unless you literally ask everyone (usually + - 3)

• Depends on several parts of the poll 

  • Sample size, question validity, timing, who was polled, mathematical model, etc

response bias of polls

• People want to be liked and so will often adjust their responses to what they think the questioner wants to hear 

  • “Silent Majority”

keys considerations when evaluating opinion data

• Sample size

  • Larger the sample more accurate the results (to a point)

  • Efficacy vs accuracy

• Question wording

  • Question validity

  • Phrasing, word usage, method of asking

• Timing

  • Demographics

reading poll results

• Always gather as much information about the poll itself before you try to evaluate its results

  • Particularly the items mentioned above but also make sure to look at who conducted the poll and their past reliability

republican party

• (Typically seen as) conservative socially, free market/capitalism economically

  • Has shifted more liberal socially over the last 20+ years

democratic party

• (Typically seen as) liberal socially, heavier regulations/government involvement economically

• Have shifted more liberal on some things and stayed the same on some things both economically and socially over the last 20+ years 

important third parties

• Libertarian and Green tend to have the best numbers nationwide

  • Others – Federalist, Constitutional, Communist, Socialist, Independents, Reform (a few different times/types

ideology and policy making

• Role of public opinion

  • Popular policy

  • Polling on policy vs principled policy

• Interest group influence

  • Lobbyists

  • Hot button topics

  • Long standing topics

• Legislative process

  • Committees, lobbyists etc

• Executive decision-making

• Judicial interpretation

  • Judicial shifts

    • District vs SCOTUS

conservative economic principles

• Free market

• Limited regulation

  • Lower taxes

liberal economic principles

• Government intervention

• Market regulation

  • Progressive taxation

key social issues

• Civil rights and Liberties

  • Speech, Religion, Gun Control, Due Process, LGBTQ issues, women’s rights etc

• Immigration

  • Border wall/control/enforcement, rising crime, immigration policy, naturalization

• Healthcare (Insurance)

  • Types, Insurance coverage, costs

• Education

  • Approaches, who’s in charge, funding, decision makers, local vs state vs national

15th amendment

• Race based voting protections (1869)

19th amendment

Women’s suffrage/Gender based voting protections (1920

26th amendment

Lowers voting age to 18 nationwide (1971

votings rights act of 1965

• Further legislation enforcing and strengthening the 15A in response to increased levels of discrimination against racial minorities in certain areas of the country

  • Provided both the legal framework to enforce the 15A as well as methods to determine if discrimination was taking place and how to address it

rational choice model/theory

• Voters make their voting choices based on which candidate or party will best represent their interests, needs and wants (a “rational” choice)

party identification model/theory

Primary influence on voting choices is party identification of both the voter and the candidate/s

retrospective voting

• Voting based on the current and recent performances of the incumbents

sociological influences on voting behavior

• Family, Religion, Education, Where does the voter live, age, other peer groups etc`

registration requirements on voter turnout

• Drives higher or lower turnout and/or affects # of eligible voters

electoral competitieveness on voter turnout

• Non-competitive races tend to have lower turnout

demographics on voter turnout

• Higher Voter turnout – Identified as White/Caucasian, older=higher turnout, 

  • Lowest Voter turnout – Identified as Hispanic, younger=lower turnout, 

education levels on voter turnout

More education trends towards higher turnout

socioeconomic status on voter turnout

• Typically higher/better/more prosperous socioeconomic status trends towards higher voter turnout though it tends to plateau at a certain level

2 party system development

• Most political scientists agree that a 2 party system tends to develop in large part due to plurality based voting systems such as the US

  • In other words, whenever whoever gets the most votes wins the entire thing it makes more sense for smaller parties to coalesce into larger ones

party realignment and dealignment

• Republican Party 1990 – Tended to have higher shares of well but not super well educated individuals, older voters, married individuals, the white vote etc

• Republican Party 2024 – Tended to have higher shares of less educated and blue collar individuals, younger voters (except college educated especially women), and was increasing its share of the Hispanic and Black vote in certain areas

• Democratic Party 1990 – Tended to have higher shares of the most educated individuals, vast majority of blue collar workers especially union members, minorities, single individuals younger individuals, etc

  • Democratic Party 2024 – More educate=More democrat, older individuals, still higher minority turnout but losing a lot of ground, biggest supporters college educated women

party platforms and ideologies

• Republican Party 1990 – Free trade and low/no tariffs, pro-life, pro-family, low taxes, high military spending and pro-interventionist

• Republican Party 2024 – Targeted Tariffs, pro-life, pro-family, low taxes, lower military spending, isolationist

• Democratic Party 1990 – High taxes especially corporate, pro-choice, pro social freedoms, lower military spending and isolationist

  • Democratic Party 2024 – High taxes especially corporate but anti-tariffs, pro-choice, higher military spending and interventionist

party organization structure

• State level as well as national

  • National chairs, fundraising, etc

national conventions

• Most famous for selecting presidential candidates every 4 years but also play large role in setting official party platform, selecting other national candidates, working with state parties, and other important processesa

historical shifts: southern strategy

• From the Great Depression through the early 1960s the Democrats were the dominant political party in the US

  • This was in part due to the respective responses to the Great Depression but also due to the association of the Republican Party with unpopular Reconstruction policies in the South and the association of Democrats with more popular segregation and discrimination policies

• To counter this Republicans shifted during the 60s to more of an emphasis on issues important to their Western base which happened to coincide with issues important to the white population in the South

  • Immigration, federal intervention in the segregation debate, lower taxes and tariffs, and military strength

• This ultimately resulted in a shift in the Republican base from the Northeast and West Coast to the West Coast and South

  • Which has now shifted again with Democrats firmly in control of both the Northeast and the West Coast but Republicans mostly in power in the South and Midwest

modern party coalitions

• Republican Party 2024 – Tended to have higher shares of less educated and blue collar individuals, younger voters (except college educated especially women), and was increasing its share of the Hispanic and Black vote in certain areas

  • Democratic Party 2024 – More educate=More democrat, older individuals, still higher minority turnout but losing a lot of ground, biggest supporters college educated women

polarization trends

• Many polls seem to indicate growing trends of political polarization in the United States – at least in comparison to recent decades

historical impacts on third parties

• No Third Party has won a significant number of Congressional seats or the Presidency since the Republican Party and Democratic Party became the 2 major parties in the 1850s

  • Some temporary third parties have had strong showings in various elections though

    • Strom Thurmond and the Dixiecrats, TR and the Bull Moose Party, Ross Perot as an Independent and others

current third parties

• Libertarian and Green tend to have the best numbers nationwide

  • Others – Federalist, Constitutional, Communist, Socialist, Independents, Reform (a few different times/types)

barriers to success on third parties

Winner takes all, Plurality system, name recognition, ballot access, funding, lack of coalitions, single issue voters

spoiler effect on third parties

• 3^rd Party Candidates have effectively decided presidential races (and others) a number of times

  • 2024, 2016, and 1992 are notable recent examples

reform initiatives on third parties

• Ranked choice voting, all by Congressional district, proportional voting by state, move to more parliamentary system

types and categories of interest groups

• Economic

• Cause-based

• Public Interest

  • Governmental Groups

lobbying methods of interest groups

• Direct Contact

• Grassroots mobilization

  • Organize protests/rallies, initiate social media or other contact campaigns

• Building or developing coalitions

  • Spreading information – written, online, social 

pacs and super pacs

• Political Action Committees

• PACS have legally expressed limits on who can donate funds and how much can be donated but can coordinate directly with candidates

  • Super PACS do not have the funding and expenditure limits but cannot coordinate directly with candidates

policy influence

• Direct lobbying

• Campaign contributions

  • Individual candidates or parties, PACs and Super PACs etc

• Public opinion shaping

  • Polls, data, social media campaigns etc

• Coalition building

  • Essentially campaigning to demographics done by groups and individuals other than candidates or office holders

• Legal changes

  • By funding or making legal challenges (usually lawsuits) groups can influence policy is several ways

presidential elections

• Primary process

  • Some states are open others are closed

  • Voting vs Caucus 

• National conventions

  • Delegates from state conventions/primaries officially cast their primary ballots to select the candidate

  • Democrats formerly had super delegates but no more after 2016

• General election strategies

  • Pivot to the middle, selection of a running mate (can also play a factor in the conventions and primaries), which issues to focus on, campaign trips/stops, rallies, voter turnout, debates, media appearances, endorsements (both of and for), focus groups, polls and polling data etc

swing states importance

• A lot of focus on states in the balance

  • Change from election to election as do their important issues

congressional elections

• House v. senate races

  • House – By District

    • Redistricting/Gerrymandering

  • Senate – By state (17^th Amendment)

• Incumbency advantage

• Midterm elections

  • Lower turnout, different strategies, referendum on parties and their platforms, referendum on presidents

• Campaign strategies

  • Similar to presidential but more localized

modern campaigns

• Digital strategies: Emphasis on social media and alternative media 

• Data analytics: Demographic data, geographic data, historical data, polls and polling both internal and external etc

• Micro-targeting: Target very specific demographics or trends or areas to drive turnout

• Ground operations

  • Literally on the ground

    • Campaign stops and rallies

    • Door to door campaigning and voter registration drives

    • In person discussions, debates, town hall forums, question and answer sessions 

feca regulationa

• Limits on campaign contributions and required disclosure of certain types of donors and funders

citizens united impact on campaign finance

• Citizens United v FEC removed many limits on corporate campaign contributions to political campaigns and contributed to the creation and rise of Super PACS

types of funding for campains

• Individual donors (both large and small), corporate donors, direct fundraising, advocacy groups, personal and others

disclosure requirements for campaign funding

• Most PACs and Super PACS are required to disclose all their donors

• Other groups are not necessarily required to disclose their donors depending on the size and type of their donation

  • Campaigns and candidates are generally required to disclose all their donors and general amounts

reform debates regarding campaign funding

• Corporate donations/lobbying, direct funding of elections, indirect funding of elections, donations to campaigns but not candidates etc

traditional v. new media landscape

• Traditional – Print (NY Times, WaPo, Rolling Stone, Politico, Time etc), Big 4 Networks or Big 6 (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX plus CNN and MSNBC), other cable networks and partners (everything from FoxBusiness to Comedy Central with the Daily Show)

  • Tends to lean more left 

• New/Alternative – Podcasts (big ones like Joe Rogan or small/local ones), Social Media, Blogs, Web only news sites (Daily Wire, Daily Review, The Federalist, Vox, Mother Jones)

  • Tends to lean more right but even more so tends to be more polarized on both sides

modern challenges

• Echo Chambers

  • Particularly a challenge in the era of social media

  • Only see/hear news from your preferred side/sources so lack of exposure to opposing ideas

• Agendas

  • Media has always had bias/agendas to set and at various times has been more or less transparent

    • To an extent the idea of a neutral/unbiased press is a new one

• Mis/Disinformation – what is it? How do we counter it? Who decides?

gerrymandering

is the political manipulation of electoral district boundaries to advantage a party, group, or socioeconomic class within the constituency.

gerrymandering is legal except in what cases

racial

citizens united v. fec

Shaw v. Reno