ap hug: unit 2

Overpopulation

An area carrying more people than environmental carrying capacity

Four Major Clusters

• E. Asia (China, N/S Korea, Taiwan, Japan) 50/50 rural/urban

• S. Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) mostly rural

• Europe (near major rivers and historic capitals) ¾ urban

• S.E. Asia (Indonesia - island of Java, Philippines, Indochina)

Sparsely Populated Regions

• Too Dry (e.g. Sahara) - Need fresh water, rivers, lakes

• Too Wet (e.g. Amazon) - non-extreme climates in midlatitudes

• Too Cold/Hot (e.g. Arctic) - non-extreme climates in midlatitudes

• Too High/Mountainous (exceptions: Andes) - prefer low-lying areas w/ better soils, coastlines for food, transportation, moderate temp.

Densely populated regions

• Low lands

• Fertile soil

• Temperate climate

Arithmetic Density

•  people / land area

  • How crowded is it?

Physiological Density

• people / arable land

  • How many people does the good land need to support?

  • If not enough, countries will need to fish or import food

  • Gives insight into what pressure is on the land

Agricultural Density

• farmers / arable land 

  • How many farmers are working on good land?

  • Often a good economic indicator, ⇧ tech = ⇩ farmers

  • Gives insight into how developed the area is

  • More developed countries (MDCs) have lower densities because of technology

  • Less Developed Countries (LDCs) have higher densities because farmers are doing most of the labour

Physical population distribution factors

• Relief (flat / mountainous land)

• Resources (rich / few)

• Climate (temperate / extreme)

Human population distribution factors

• Culture (accepting community)

• History (imperialism)

• Political (stable / unstable government)

  social (people wanting to live close / far from each other)

• Economic (good / bad job oppourtunities)

Ecueme

The portion of the Earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlement

Natural Increase Rate

Percentage growth in population excluding migration

• (birth rate - death rate) / 10

• word norm is 1.2%

Life expectancy

Average age at death

Doubling Time

Projected amount of time it will take a population to double

Rule of 70

To find doubling time

• 70 / NIR

Crude Birth Rate

live births per year / 1 000 people

Crude Death Rate

deaths per year / 1 000 people

Total Fertility Rate

Average # of children per woman

Replacement Level Fertility

The amount of fertility to replace a population without migration (average 2.1%)

Demographic Transition Model

• Process of change in society’s birth and death rates, often associated with development

  • Used to be 4 stages, now 5

  • Created in 1929, countries since then have entered Stage 5

  • No country currently in Stage 1 but some tribes are

    • Most of human history was at Stage 1 until the Medical Revolutions of the Industrial Revolution

DTM Stage 1

• CBR: Very high

• CDR: Very high

• NIR: Very low

• Causes: Pre-industrial fertility and mortality

DTM Stage 2

• CBR: High

• CDR: Rapidly declining

• NIR: Very high

• Causes: Industrial or medical revolution on CDR

DTM Stage 3

• CBR: Rapidly declining

• CDR: Moderately declining

• NIR: Moderate

• Causes: Economic + Social forces on CBR

DTM Stage 4

• CBR: Very low

• CDR: Low and slightly increasing

• NIR: 0 or negative

• Causes: Continued social change on CBR

How population and density impact society

• Where businesses locate

  • Purposes, location of schools and other essential services.

How population impact enviornment

• Strain on resources

• Carrying capacity can be reached

• High concentration of manufacturing plants and other buildings leads to large amounts of pollution and water contamination 

• Medical care is more accessible in urban areas with more people

Social and Economic Consequences of distribution

• Most people live in cities

• Aging population in rural areas as young people go to cities for jobs

• LDCS lack housing in cities

• Diseases spread easily in Urban Areas due to high population density

Development consequences from distribution

• Affect the need for infrastructure (housing)

• Urban services (sanitation)

• Population concentrates in areas with high soil arability/fertility and water, which also tends to have mild climates.

• Population is becoming more urban.

Demography

Study of patterns and rates of population change, including birth & death rates, migration trends, and evolving population pattern

Population Pyramids

Used to assess population growth and decline and to predict markets for goods and services

Infant mortality rate

• The number of children who die before one year of age

• Typically when this goes down life expectancies go up which leads to higher population growth

Total fertility rate

Average number of children who would be born per woman during her childbearing years

• Globally TFR has been significantly decreasing over time

Population growth factors

• Agricultural societies (children to work on farm)

• Advancements in food production & nutrition

• Advancements in sanitation

  • Less water contamination & disease

• Economic prosperity

• Access to healthcare

  • Prevention & cure of disease.

  • Women have access to pre & post-natal care

• Religion

  • Traditional cultures encourage big families

  • Restriction of contraceptive use and abortion.

  • Earlier marriages = more children

Population Decline

• Industrial & post-industrial society

  • Women more involved in the workforce

  • Urbanization -> small living quarters

• Economic Hardship

  • Children are expensive, provision of food & resources

• Role of Women - Education & Workforce

  • Cultural expectations have changed in many MDCs -> more women in the workforce/education -> postpone having children -> reduction in child bearing years -> less children.

• Healthcare

  • Access to healthcare

  • Money being put into healthcare

Epidemiologic Transition

Characterizes health threats at each stage of the DMT (ie. why most people are dying) 

Stage 1 Pestilence and Famine

• Cause of most deaths:

  • Parasitic or infectious diseases

  • Accidents

  • Animal attacks

  • Human conflicts

• High death rate and low life expectancy

Stage 2 Receeding Pandemics

• Number of pandemics decline as a result of improved: 

  • Sanitation

  • Nutrition

  • Medication

• Decreasing death rate and increasing life expectancy

Stage 3 Degenerative and Human Created Diseases

• Infectious and parasitic diseases continue to decrease

• Diseases associated with aging (ex. heart disease) increase as people live longer

• Death rate stabilizes as a low level and life expectancy continues to increase

Stage 4 Delayed degenerative diseases

• Extension of Stage 3 where age related diseases are put off as medical procedures delay the onset of these diseases through advanced procedures

• Diseases such as Alzheimer's and dementia increase

• Death rate reaches lowest level and life expectancy peaks

Stage 5 Reemerging of infectious diseases and parasitic diseases

• Infectious and parasitic diseases increase as they become resistant to antibiotics and vaccines

• Life expectancies decrease

Maternal Mortality Rate

# of pregnancy related female deaths / 100 000 live births

• Generally higher in developing countries, lower in global north 

Sex Ratio

(# of males / # of females) x 100

• Standard sex ratio: 105 males : 100 females

• China/India: 112 : 100 due to patriarchal society and anti-natalist policies

Dependency Ratio

# of people younger than 15 or older then 65 / # of people between 15 and 65

• Dependents are too young or old to work (under 15 and over 65)

• Each require unique economic assistance

• Stage 2 countries have many under 15

• Late stage 4 have many older than 65

Impact of war

• Clearest impact is death

  • Oftentimes, half or more of deaths in wartime are civilians and therefore affect people of all ages

• However, the loss of fighting-age people, traditionally males between the ages of 18 and 40, is often noticeable

• Men and women are usually separated or delay having children creating a slowdown of births called a birth deficit

Baby boom

Birth rate spikes (generally after wars/conflicts)

Baby bust

Follows baby boom, decline in birth rate

Echo

Secondary baby boom when children of baby boomers have their own children

Longer bars for people ages 18-25 than for people younger or older

• University town

• Shortage of school funding causes families to move away when they have children

Longer bars for people ages 25-50 then children

• Economic crises causes fewer children

• Government policy discouraging birth to slow population growth

• Epidemic causing infant deaths

Longer bars for people over the age of 65

• Community attracting retirees

• Lack of jobs causes young people to over

Longer bars for males than females

• An oil boom attracting people for jobs that are traditionally done by men

Thomas Malthus

•  English economist 1798: Population will exceed food supply

  • Welcomed “natural checks” on human population like famine, disease, and war

  • Writings sparked fears of overpopulation

  • Proven wrong as technological innovations created more food than he predicted

  • Humans have been able to increase our carrying capacity along with our population

Neo-Malthusians

Unprecedented growth of 20th century population more dangerous than time of Malthus

• Regional overpopulation unavoidable (scale)

• Another wave of food production innovation will be needed to avoid catastrophe

• Food not only concern, but other resources as well like water, energy, jobs, standard of living.

Malthus critics

• Resources expanding, not fixed

• ⇧ Pop. = ⇧ $$$ ⇧ Jobs

China national family planning

• 1980-2015 One Child Policy, system of rewards and punishments. 

  • Free contraceptives, abortions, sterlizations

India national family planing

• 1952 Alternative and free/low-cost birth control programs and legalized abortions.

  • Controversial sterilization camps in 1970s

  • Less successful than China, expected to surpass China in population

Stage 5 DTM

• CBR: Very low (educated women in the workforce, family planning, rural to urban movement)

• CDR: Increasing due to more old people

• NIR: Declining

Japan population growth policies

• How to support the elderly and maintain a workforce is an economic challenge

• To counter declining populations, governments can adopt pro-natalist policies to encourage higher birth rates

Sweden population growth policies

• 18 months paid maternity leave

• Daycare heavily subsidized.

Battle of the Births

• Mussolini's Italy 1922-43

• Gave medals for having 14 kids!

• Loan payments reduced per child

Mobility

One’s ability to move from place to place

Circulation

Short-term repetitive movements

Migration

Movement from one place to another (permanent or semi-permanent)

Emigration

Moving from a location

Immigration

Moving to a location

Net migration

Immigration - Emigration

More immigration

Net-in migration

More emigration

Net out migration

International migration

Movement between two countries

Migration transition

Migration patterns change with demographic transition

Stage 1 migration transition

High daily or seasonal mobility in search of food

Stage 2 migration transition

High international emigration and interregional migration from rural to urban areas

Stage 3 / 4 migration transition

High international immigration and intraregional migration from cities to suburbs

Transhumance

Seasonal migration of nomadic herders from winter lowlands to summer highlands

Largest international population flow

Mexico → USA

Voluntary migration

Migration of one’s own preference

Distance Decay

The further apart two places are, the less likely it is that people will migrate between those two places

Step

• Migration typically occurs in steps, migrants reach their eventual destination through a series of smaller movements.

  • Happens due to intervening opportunities and obstacles.

Forced migration

People forced to leave their homes

• Immigrants to a new country retain strong cultural, emotional, and financial ties to their country of origin

Remittances

Money sent back to migrants’ country of origin

• Major economic flow.

3 major flows

• Latin America to North America

• Southwest Asia to Europe

• Asia to North America

United Nations High Commission for Refugees

• Refugees: Forced to internationally migrate

• Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): Forced to migrate but remains in home country

• Asylum: Political migrants that move due to fear of oppression and may be in danger because of their political views can be granted protection in accepting countries

Other displaced person

• Enslaved people

  • Modern context: Human trafficking

Internal Migration

Movement within a country

Interregional

Movement from one region to a different one

Intraregional

Movement within one region

Counterurbanization

• Migration from urban to rural areas

  • Due to lifestyle choices and not economic

  • More common in MDC because this is an economic privilege

Push factors

Make you want to leave a location

Economic push factor

Job loss, lack of employment, low wages

Social push factor

Discrimination, prejudice, persecution

Demographic push factor

Overpopulation

Political push factor

War, repressive laws

Natural push factor

• Natural disasters, drought, crop failure, intense climate

  • #1 Environmental Push Factor is water

    • Too much: floods, living in floodplain, rising seas

    • Too little: droughts, desertification

Pull factors

Attract you to a destination a location

Economic pull factor

Job opportunities, higher wages, seasonal jobs

Social pull factor

Freedom and lack of discrimination, familial to kinship ties

Political pull factor

Peace, refugees

Natural push factor

Desirable climate and landscape

Intervening Obstacle

• Barrier that holds migrants back from continuing to travel

  • Ex. physical geographic barriers such as deserts, rivers, mountains

  • Impact of environmental barriers reduced w/ globalization and technology

  • Obstacles can also be economic, social, cultural, and political

Intervening Opportunity

• An opportunity that causes migrants to voluntarily stop traveling

  • A beneficial opportunity arises along migration that makes a place too good to leave

Lee’s Model of Migration

Explains combination of push and pull factors that can be disrupted by Intervening Obstacles