Future of work Module 2 "Organizational Future Fitness"

Definition of future fitness

Definition of future fitness

Being prepared for both opportunities and challenges in the future working world, by adjusting short- and long-term actions accordingly.

Future fitness is the long term orientation of a company and its individuals

Why is future fitness relevant?

Its relevant for

1. Our society: sensitivity for future trends and policies will help people to transfer this into the future, such as with proper education in job changes

2. Our personal lives

3. Organizations: need to be able to react to market changes

What makes companies think in a future-oriented manner? (4 theoretical perspectives) “roots of future fitness”

1. Possible Selves Theory (Markus & Nurius 1986)

2. Hopes and fears theory (Nurmi 1987)

3. Future time perspective (Trommsdorff 1983, Lens & Moreas 1944)

4. Aspirations and expectations ( Gottfredson 1981, Messersmith & Schulenberg 2008)

Main idea of Possible selves theory

• Possible selves are positive and negative images of the self already in a future state

• Positive selves matter for goal setting and motivation

What is the relevance of the possible selves theory, for future-oriented thinking?

Future Orientation as creating positive and negative images of oneself in the future.

Main idea of hopes and fears theory

• Hopes are idealistic views of the future

• ^^Fears ^^are things people want to avoid in the future

• Hopes and fears lead to motivation

Relevance for future-oriented thinking in the hopes and fears theory

• Hopes and fears as drivers of future-oriented thinking

• Insights about the sources of motivation

Main idea of future time perspective

(FTP) is a summary of multiple views: FTP as personality trait: orientation of oneself towards the future and future goals with foresight

• FTP as coping strategy: development of a list of

possible outcomes to reduce uncertainty

Relevance of FTP (future time perspective) for future-oriented thinking

Future orientation as personality trait and coping strategy

Main idea of aspirations and expectations theory

Aspirations as number of desired possible objectives in a certain period of time

Expectations as reachable objectives in a certain period of time

Relevance of aspirations and expectations theory for future-oriented thinking

Future Orientation as a combination of “aspirations" and “expectation".

Which are the methods for measuring and shaping future fitness?

1. Scenario planning and trend extrapolation

2. Future work navigator

3. COMFURNACY approach

What is a scenario?

is a hypothetical image of the future based on a coherent combination of possible developments of different influencing factors

Which alternative scenarios for the future includes the scenario analysis? (scenario funnel)

1. Best case scenario

2. Most likely scenarios

3. Zero scenario (unreal cause there are no changes in the future)

4. Most likely scenarios

5. Worst case scenario

What is scenario planning ?

method for describing possible future configurations of a company's environment, including alternative paths leading from the present to these configurations

Tools to do scenario planning

1. Trend-based (trend extrapolation)

2. Systematically formalized (impact analysis) (also Scenario funnel)

3. Creative narrative (intuitive logics) also Scenario funnel)

How long do the scenario planning techniques attempt to predict the future?

At least 5 years

What is the major goal of the scenario planning techniques?

Identify future scenarios on the development of future of work

What is the basic idea of trend extrapolation ?

• Identification of trends based on prior developments

• Projection of prior developments into the future

• Application of statistical methods (quantitative or qualitative)

Critique of trend extrapolation

Time is only driver, so its unrealistic for companies to draw serious conclusions about the future of work

Which are the steps for scenario funnel ?

1. Analysis: identify all potential trends that are relevant for the future of work , relevant influencing factors.

2. Projection: For the relevant influencing factors, develop possible projections

3. Combining: combine development options and create consistent scenarios

4. Transfer:

• Deriving opportunities and threats

• Identify future challenges

What is the difference between trend extrapolation and scenario funnel ?

Trend extrapolation draws conclusions from prior developments ( time as one independent variable) and scenario funnel focuses on alternative possible future developments

What is the basic idea of future work navigator?

To find out how can companies manage their business in a future oriented way

Which are the features of the future work navigator?

1. Focus: entire organization or specific units

2. Perspective: 5-10 years

3. Scope: the navigator attempts to measure and manage the future fitness

What is the goal of future work navigator?

Increase companies innovativeness and performance

Based on which ideas was the future work navigator developed?

1. Dynamic capabilities (sensing, seizing, transforming)

2. Ambidexterity theory (exploitation, exploration, integration)

Which are the implications of the future work navigator within the areas of an organization?

The future work navigator can be used in the following areas of an organization:

1. strategy development

2. organization design

3. increase technology & innovation activities

The future work navigator can help people in an organization to:

guide employees and leaders to become future oriented

Which are the four dimensions of future work navigator?

1. future orientation

2. exploration

3. exploitation

4. integration

What means future orientation in the future work navigator

captures the consistent orientation of a company's activities towards future requirements of relevant markets and the needs of future employees.

(captures the consistent activities the company is doing towards future relevant markets and employee requirements)

What means exploitation in the future work navigator?

captures the continuous optimization of existing working methods and products in terms of an efficient management of today's business.

What means exploration in the future work navigator?

describes the extent, to which companies are already experimenting with new working environments (e.g., agile working, new forms of corporate democracy) and testing new business models.

What means integration in future work navigator?

indicates how well a company combines current and future work concepts.

Future fitness as a key success of which two factors

1. Innovativeness (exploration)

2. Profitability (exploitation)

What is the basic idea of COMFURNACY approach?

Similar to future work navigator, To find out how can companies manage their business in a future oriented way

Which are the features of the COMFURNACY approach?

1. focus: firm campus or office worlds

2. perspective: 5-10 years

3. scope: assessing future proof office worlds

Dimensions of comfurnacy approach

1. future orientation: the extent to which an office element will still meet employees needs in 5-10 years time

2. Sustainability : materials, production and disposal of office elements

3. Innovativeness: whether an office element is new, unique and if it stimulates creativity

4. Customer excitement: if an office element is enjoyable

5. Recreation / work-life-balance: office element that supports short breaks

6. Techno-logical integration: if an office element can be combined with other elements or with technology

7. Team work: if an office element promotes communication between colleagues and teamwork

8. Ergonomics: healthy, comfortable and safe office elements

9. Functionality and usefulness: if office elements work and are useful

Which are the four additional dimensions to comfurnacy? after covid

1. price

2. integration (into my home)

3. flexibility (to use at home)

4. quality