The Politics of Climate Change Midterm Exam

(lec. 2) What are some ways the earth's temperature changes naturally?

• Fluctuations in the radiation output from the sun and changes in oceanic circulation

  • 2°C range on time scales of centuries over last 10k-15k years

• Changes in the Earth’s orbit, tilt of the Earth’s axis, and precession of the Earth’s axis

  • systematic variations in the amount and distribution of solar radiation over tens of thousands to a hundred thousand years

  • average temperature difference between ice ages and “interglacial periods” is about 5°C

  • Holocene (current interglacial period) began around 12,000 years ago

• Changes in land and ocean floor topography

• Volcanic emissions or asteroid/comet strikes can temporarily cool the planet by increasing reflection of solar radiation

When was the last ice age?

about 20,000 years ago

What is Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?

• A small fraction (around .04%) of the Earth’s atmosphere is comprised of Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

• It's an essential part of plant and animal life cycles

  • animals breathe in oxygen and breathe out CO2

  • plants take in CO2 and release oxygen

• “Carbon cycle” describes movement of CO2 between atmosphere, oceans, land, and living things

If the climate can change for so many natural reasons, why do we talk about human-caused climate change?

CO2 emissions!

• Earth receives energy from the sun

• Earth emits "blackbody radiation"

• CO2 (and other carbon-containing molecules) absorb some of this radiation, preventing this energy from escaping the atmosphere

• CO2 (and these other carbon-containing molecules) are called Greenhouse Gases GHGs

What is happening with CO2 emissions today?

Current carbon dioxide level (424 parts per million) is much higher than it’s been in the last 800,000 years (higher than it’s been in the last 10 to 15 million years)

Started shooting up very recently (in geological terms)

What are "Carbon Sinks" ?

Anything that absorbs more carbon from the atmosphere than it releases...for example, oceans, plants, soil, peatlands

What happens when carbon sinks are disrupted?

It leads to more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (draining peatlands, burning/clearing forests)

Also! Oceans are less effective as carbon sinks as they warm. (CO2 is absorbed better by cold water)

Do higher CO2 levels lead to warming?

Temperature and CO2 levels have tracked one another closely in recent times. (both show upward trends on graph)

How do we know how much CO2 was in the atmosphere in the past?

Air bubbles in mile-thick ice cores and other isotopic and chemical analyses

During ice ages, CO2 levels around 200 parts per million; during interglacial periods, around 280 ppm (we're now at about 424 ppm)

Where has all this CO2 come from?

• Carbon emissions based on human activity accelerated rapidly following the Industrial Revolution

• Fossil fuels (coal, petroleum, natural gas) are formed over millions of years under high pressure from the remains of living things

• In the Earth, these fuels store large amounts of carbon which is released into the atmosphere when burned

• Today, human activity releases around 2.4 million pounds of CO2 per second into the atmosphere

What are carbon emissions like in other countries?

• Cumulatively, carbon emissions have come disproportionately from countries that industrialized earlier

• As of 2010 the US accounted for 18% of cumulative GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions since 1850 compared to 12% by China and 4% by India

• Current projections of cumulative emissions by 2050: US 16%, China 20% India 6%

How do CO2 emissions help suggest strategies to combat climate change?

70% of received solar energy is absorbed by Earth; CO2 traps some of the energy that Earth “attempts” to re-radiate into space, so we can..

• Reduce the amount of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere

• Find a way of pulling atmospheric CO2 into a carbon sink (“carbon capture”)

• Increase the reflectivity of the Earth’s atmosphere so less energy arrives on the surface in the first place (stratospheric aerosol injection, cloud brightening, mirrors in space – “solar geoengineering”)

What about non-CO2 carbon emissions?

• CO2 isn’t the only kind of carbon compound added to the atmosphere by human activity

• Methane (CH4) and Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

  • Generated in lower quantities than CO2

  • But per molecule, much worse in terms of climate change

    • Over 20 years post-emissions, the warming effect of methane is 80 times that of CO2

    • Over 20 years post-emissions, the warming effect of the worst HFCs is more than 3700 times that of CO2

Neither lasts as long in the atmosphere as CO2

What is the issue with climate models?

• The Earth’s climate is a complex system

• Projecting future trajectories of temperature, etc., comes with inherent uncertainty, particularly as deviations from historical CO2 levels increase

• There may be hints that earlier projections of the pace of climate change could have been underestimates

What is the Paris Agreement and how can we achieve it?

• The Paris Agreement aims to hold global temperature increase below 2 °C (3.6 °F) compared to pre-industrial levels, preferably below 1.5 °C (2.7 °F)

• Models suggest that for the 2 °C goal, emissions need to fall sharply and reach net-zero by around 2050

• Models suggest that for the 1.5 °C goal, emissions need to fall even more sharply, by around 50% by 2030

What are some future consequences to come?

• Climate change will not be evenly spread around the planet

• Warming is expected to be worse in the Arctic (ice cap melt → sea level rise)

• Places will become hotter, dryer, and/or wetter

• More extreme weather!

(lec. 3) What are a few more consequences to come? (Atlantic Conveyor Belt)

• If certain “tipping points” are reached, climate changes may become more erratic or severe

• The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (photo) is a series of ocean currents that brings warm water up to Western Europe, making this region warmer than it would otherwise be based on latitude

• Recent research suggests that the pace of this “conveyor belt” may be slowing, probably related to climate change

• If the “conveyor belt” collapses, temperatures in Western Europe could fall sharply (e.g. winters in the UK could be around 5C colder)

What about sea level rise and animal extinction?

Sea level rise

• Rise of 0.9 meters by 2100 would put 4.2 million Americans at risk of inundation

• Rise of 1.8 meters (high end scenario) would put 13.1 million Americans at risk

Destruction of biodiversity

• Fears of a “sixth great extinction,” in which “three-quarters of Earth's species could vanish within 300 years”

What are public goods?

Public goods are goods or services that are non-excludable and non-rivalrous in nature. Non-excludable means that individuals cannot be excluded from using or benefiting from the good, and non-rivalrous means that one person's consumption of the good does not diminish its availability to others. Examples of public goods include national defense, public parks, and street lighting.

How do public goods function in society?

In society there is often a tension between individual and collective interests.

• This reflects a basic tension between selfish and cooperative motivations within human beings, likely fostered by biological evolution

  • Selfishness can sometimes lead individuals to experience better outcomes (resources, biological fitness, etc.)

  • However, groups comprised only/mainly of selfish individuals may fail in competitions against other groups (“out-groups”)

  • People often desire individual status within a group, but also membership in a successful group

How does the “public goods game” work?

• If everyone pursues their individual interests, everyone is worse off than if nobody does. ($10 < $16)

• But, a given person is always “better off” pursuing their individual interests ($10 > $4)

• And, a given person who pursues their individual interests winds up better off than one who does not (e.g., $22 > $12, $14 > $4)

What are “free riders” ?

Those who do not contribute (that is, individuals who enjoy social benefits without paying individual costs)

What are “conditional cooperators” ?

They are willing to contribute as long as a sufficient number of others also do so

• Reflects deep-seated human motivation not to be a “sucker” who is taken advantage of

What are public goods settings often referred to as?

“Collect action problems” or “social dilemmas”

What are some examples of public goods?

• air quality

• public parks

• roads

• meat eating

• political participation

• law enforcement

How can societies encourage citizen contribution to public goods?

• By observing successful public goods outcomes

• regulations / laws / use of force / tax obligations

• advertisements / campaigns about moral and ethical obligations

• rewards / benefits

  • social esteem

  • gifts (like a mug or t shirt based on your contribution)

• encouraging collective action vs moral interest though education, moral formation

What is “excludability” in terms of public goods?

finding a way to make the benefits of the “public good” available only to contributors….although many are non-excludable by nature.

What is the “use of thresholds” in terms of public goods?

structuring a public good in such a way that there is a salient “target” level of total public goods contributions

What is the difference between “hard thresholds” and “soft thresholds” ?

• “Hard threshold” – the public good is “fully provided” if the threshold is met, but not provided at all if the threshold is not met.

  • People may be more motivated to contribute if they believe that their contribution might be “pivotal” to overall success (say, a gofundme)

• “Soft threshold” – the threshold does not actually affect the amount of public good provided, but nonetheless may have a psychological effect

  • Targets like 1.5C have this character to some degree

• Thresholds that are too high may decrease contributions (people may believe that contributions are pointless)

• Thresholds that are too low may decrease contributions also (people may be demotivated by low aspirations)

• But well-chosen thresholds can increase contributions

How does “refundability” work with public goods?

Contributions are “returned” in full if a contribution threshold is not met.

What are some laws/punishments with public goods?

individuals can be “punished” based on their level of public goods contributions

• “Institutional” punishment – a (legal) authority is able to punish individuals

  • Mandatory taxation can be thought of (from one perspective) as a form of mandatory public goods contribution

• Punishment by peers – individuals are able to punish/sanction each other

  • Such “punishment” could be material, reputational, social, etc.

• “Perverse punishment” – takes place when individuals provide too much of a public good rather than too little

What is the promotion of norms of contribution?

rather than punishing people externally for failing to contribute, get people to believe that contributing is the right thing to do

• People may then “punish” themselves psychologically for failing to contribute

• e.g., most people follow the law most of the time because they believe it to be “right” rather than from fear of punishment

What are social/reputational compensations (in terms of public goods)?

individuals who contribute to public goods can be compensated in other ways

• Reputation / public recognition

• Awards / moral status

• More effective in the presence of norms about contributions

What is the tragedy of the commons?

aka common pool resource problem

• Similar in structure to public goods scenarios

  • Public goods are framed in terms of “giving”

  • Commons problems are framed in terms of “taking”

• A given individual benefits more by taking more from a “common pool” resource

• But excessive “taking” can:

  • lower the quality of the resource, or

  • lower the future availability of the resource

What is an example of the tragedy of the commons?

Example: Fishing

• An individual fisherman makes more money by catching more fish

• However, if too many fish are taken, the future supply of fish will decrease or, if overfishing is extreme, potentially collapse

• The future quality of available fish (size, etc.) may also be affected

(lec. 4) What are positive externalities?

My action can have a positive effect on other people (e.g. contribution in a public goods game)

What are negative externalities?

My action can have a negative effect on other people (e.g. excessively withdrawing from a common pool resource)

Carbon emissions can commonly be understood as as negative externality (I take a long-haul international flight, everyone else has to deal with a bit more CO2 in the atmosphere)

What is the internalization of externalities?

Making sure that externalities are paid/account for, whether publicly or privately

“Incorporation of an externality into the market decision making process through pricing or regulatory interventions.”

What are quotas (in terms of solving common pool resource problem)?

A quota or ban can be placed on resource use

Adjustable based on circumstances to ensure sustainability

What is privatization (in terms of solving common pool resource problem)?

• It is sometimes argued that privatizing a common pool resource can give the new owner incentives to use it sustainably

• However, there are sometimes barriers (logistical or moral) to privatization

• And, important distributional challenges in making sure the public still benefits from the privatized resource

What is the distribution conflict with public goods and common pool resource settings?

• Public Goods and Common Pool Resource settings foreground tensions between individual and collective interests

• Distributional settings foreground tensions between different individuals’ interests

• Much of politics centers on contests over distributional goods

  • Spend money on health care for the elderly or education for the young?

  • Prioritize investment in cities or rural areas?

  • Prioritize jobs at domestic manufacturers, or low prices for consumers?

• Distributional contests are sometimes organized linked to social identities (e.g. urban vs. rural, generational)

What does it mean when distributional contests are concentrated or diffused?

• Concentrated: A smaller group has a lot to gain or lose

• Diffuse: A larger group gains or loses a little

• Concentrated interests are sometimes more politically potent, because they have the motivation to fight hard and organize, even though they lack a majority

Of course, distributional and public goods concerns can coexist within a given social setting

How is water access a common pool resource problem?

Different political or geographic entities can fight bitterly over access to water resources during times of scarcity

Access to fresh water from rivers is additionally thorny because rivers can flow across multiple jurisdictions

• For example, the international tension between Syria and Iraq as well as the Colorado River Compact

It’s difficult to make water rights resilient to contingencies because of changes in residential patterns and change in climate/resource availability

How do policies meant to address climate change have distributional consequences?

• Higher gasoline taxes: affect everyone but bigger cost to drivers than to non-drivers, rural residents (who typically drive longer distances) than to urban residents

• Transitioning from coal to cleaner energy sources like solar panels or windmills: losses to workers and communities that mine or process coal, gains to manufacturers of greener energy technologies

• These distributional consequences often take place across identity divides (geographic region, educational attainment, etc.)

What are “Green industrial policies” ?

using levers of government to encourage/support manufacture of greener energy technologies

• Once they exist, green energy manufacturers form a concentrated political constituency for pro-climate policymaking

  • Such concentrated interests can further the political momentum for yet more climate change policymaking

  • Compare to regulations or taxes on “non-green” energy companies, which aggravate existing concentrated political constituencies

  • Argues that wise climate policymaking should consider political momentum and garnering support along with more “scientific” considerations

What does the “Prisoners of the Wrong Dilemma” paper talk about?

• Climate change is often thought of purely as a collective action problem – e.g., something akin to a public goods or common pool resources issue

• However, from the perspective of international relations and global politics, distributive conflict may be more important in practice

• Public opinion within a country may press for climate reforms regardless of what other countries around the world are doing

• Paper presents evidence that countries’ decisions about climate reform are not terribly sensitive to other countries’ behavior or commitments

• This may reduce the effect of international-level “free riding” on climate reform in many places

What are heuristics?

“mental shortcuts” that we use in processing information

These shortcuts can often be useful, and can sometimes guide us toward good decisions, but they may sometimes lead us astray into irrationality.

• we use these because honestly weighing the risks, using all available data, ect. when evaluating potential policies is too much/may take too long

What happened in the availability heuristic experiment about Trump’s vs Biden’s inauguration speech?

Students were given similar information about a hypothetical 2024 election context, but were simply asked to “imagine” different outcomes in a vivid way.

In this class:

• Among those instructed to imagine a Trump victory:

  • 63% Trump, 37% Biden

• Among those instructed to imagine a Biden victory:

  • 18% Trump, 82% Biden

→ Huge (45 percentage point) increase in projection of Biden’s chances

What is the availability heuristic?

a rule of thumb in which decision makers “assess the frequency of a class or the probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind.”

• In other words, if you can imagine something, you think it is likelier to happen.

- We say that a given thing is salient at a given point in time if it is at/toward the top of one’s mind, and that it is not salient if you aren’t thinking about it presently.

• Things that are more salient are more available to a decision maker.

What are some potential implications of the availability heuristic for the politics of climate change?

• People may not believe in global warming at times when it isn’t hot outside

• hard to imagine countries actually coming together to solve the problem → might think climate action isn’t going to work

• people may not be personally observing effects of climate change

• effects of climate change are happening slowly

• science / measurement is abstract (what does 424 parts per million really mean?)

• CO2 is invisible, as is the rest of the global warming process

• Humans aren’t in the Arctic

• Politicians divert attention from climate change

Why are climate change effects unavailable to many citizens?

1. It hasn’t greatly affected most people (yet) / the worst effects are in a future that is perceived as distant.

2. It’s hard to imagine the more extreme outcomes that adaptation may have to deal with.

3. Evidence for climate change relies on scientific research, some of which is abstract or difficult to understand/communicate.

What’s something in everyday life that could potentially make global warming more salient?

The weather.

• Direct experiences of weather on a given day will be more salient to most individuals than huge amounts of data in scientific journals. 

• But, the amount of information about climate in a given day’s weather is trivial compared to what we know about climate science.

What did Egan and Mullin (2012) find out in their study on the effects of current weather and climate change beliefs?

Egan and Mullin (2012) show that the warmer it is outside (relative to seasonal norms), the more people believe that there is “solid evidence” that the Earth is getting warmer.

80% of the public is experiencing “more pleasant” weather than 40 years ago. The US is warming more in the winter. People like this. This has helped prevent the salience of global warming.

• Although 38% of Americans thought climate change should be a ‘top priority’ for Washington lawmakers in 2016, this placed the problem 16th out of 18 issues presented by Pew to survey respondents—lower than other abstract, hard-to-understand problems such as the budget deficit

• Clearly the #16 out of 18 issue is not wildly salient in the minds of most voters

What happened in the cognitive dissonance experiment involving the $1 and $20 rewards for students telling the other waiting students the tedious tasks were enjoyable?

There were three experiments:

• In the $1 treatment, participants were then paid $1 to tell a waiting student that the tasks were interesting and enjoyable.

• In the $20 treatment, participants were then paid $20 to tell a waiting student that the tasks were interesting and enjoyable.

• Participants in the control group didn’t communicate with waiting students.

At the end, students were asked to rate how enjoyable the tasks had been.

RESULTS:

• Subjects in the $20 treatment and the control group gave the same answers on average.

• But subjects in the $1 treatment rated the tasks as significantly more enjoyable.

WHY:

• Two inconsistent or incompatible thoughts may cause “cognitive dissonance.”

• When possible, individuals try to reduce “cognitive dissonance” – they “strive for consistency.”

• Here, subjects in the $1 treatment may do so by trying to convince themselves that the task actually wasn’t so bad.

  • VS the $20 group who could say, I just got 20 bucks! Very good reason they’d say it was enjoyable

What is motivated cognition?

The desire to reduce cognitive dissonance

• In general, motivated cognition refers to thinking that is partly (or entirely) guided by a psychological goal rather than the unbiased pursuit of truth

What are some potential implications of cognitive dissonance for climate change?

The costs of dealing with climate change mitigation are in the present; the benefits lie mostly in the future.  It’s convenient to minimize the costs, to avoid disrupting the lives we are currently leading/profiting from, while maintaining a positive sense of ourselves and our society.

Grappling with climate change now implicitly means owning up to the costs of past inaction.  This may be difficult to face up to, and to avoid dissonance, people might choose to minimize the importance of climate change.

What are the three main ways of reducing dissonance? (apply human cause climate change denial)

Dissonance creates psychological tension, which people feel motivated to avoid

• Change behavior (but this can be costly or inconvenient)

• Change attitude (decide that climate change is just inevitable, or “I can’t make a difference”)

• Engage in “cognitive strategies”

  • Denial: “Climate change is a hoax”

  • Trivialization: “Climate change won’t be as bad as people say”

  • Wishful Thinking: “Future technology will for sure sort everything out”

  • Distortion of Information: “Scientists don’t really agree about climate change anyway”

What are the three key ways “the drive for consistency” can affect information processing?

• Selective Exposure

  • Not seeking out (even trying to avoid) information that may cast doubt on one’s views or decisions, while seeking out supportive information

• Selective Attention

  • When information is in front of you, focusing on the things that are supportive of your views or decisions, while ignoring or minimizing the importance of things that cast doubt

• Selective Interpretation

  • When information is ambiguous, choosing to interpret it in the way most supportive to your views or decisions

What is a social identity?

that part of an individual’s self-concept which derives from his/her knowledge of his/her membership in a social group together with the value and emotional significance attached to that membership

What are the grounds of “social identity theory” ?

• Group members strive to achieve or maintain a sense of positive social identity

• Group members base this social identity on favorable comparisons that can be made between in-group and out-group members

  • Such comparisons can contribute to individuals’ self-esteem because they allow individuals to define the members of their group as being “better” than other groups.

• Group members are likely to engage in motivated cognition to make this comparison more favorable

  • Finding fault with ideas/behavior of out-group members; uncritically accepting ideas/behavior of in-group members.

What are some ways people may feel pressure to conform with group norms?

• To feel that they are a “good” member of the group

• Because of general social conformity pressures

• Out of fear of being punished by or isolated from members of the in-group

These pressures can be internalized (coming from within the individual) or external (coming from other people within the in-group).

What is a group norm?

Many social identities come with (formal or informal) expectations for how group members should behave (or think).

That is, there are certain behaviors or duties that are seen as consistent with/required for group membership.

What is political polarization?

• political elites and politically engaged citizens from different parties have moved apart on political issues (relates to what parties actually stand for)

  • This is much less true for citizens who are not especially politically engaged

What is affective polarization?

partisans dislike and mistrust out-group members more than in the past (relates to emotion and identity)

What is epistemic polarization?

• co-partisans (members of the same in-group) tend to inhabit “echo chambers”, consuming news/information that is agreeable to the in-group (relates to information and knowledge)

  • Members of different parties therefore form different understandings of the world

What is social network polarization?

partisans’ social networks/political discussion groups become more politically homogeneous (consists more and more of in-group partisans only)

(lec. 6) How is global warming and partisan attachment related?

• Belief that global warming is happening and worry about global warming diverge strongly by partisan attachment.

• Moderate Republicans (who resemble independents here) believe and worry much more than conservative Republicans.

• Given increasing polarization in the US, fewer citizens identify as “moderate” partisans these days.

How do climate change concerns relate to carbon emissions?

• On average countries’ levels of concern about climate change are lower, the higher a country’s carbon emissions per capita (Stokes et al 2015)

  • Higher emissions may simply reflect less environmentally inclined preferences

  • Higher emitters tend to be richer, and in a better position regarding adaptation than poorer countries (financially and in many cases geographically)

  • Cognitive dissonance processes may also play a role

Does the experience of a natural disaster make climate change more salient? How does partisanship play into this?

• Researchers studied wildfires that burned at least 5,000 acres in California

• Californians who experience a wildfire within 5 kilometers of their census block group are 5–6 percentage points more likely to vote for costly climate-related policy reforms…

• However, this effect is driven strongly by heavily Democratic areas that have experienced a wildfire. 

• Experience of a wildfire has essentially no effect on environmental voting in heavily Republican areas.

Does conspiracy thinking play a role in rejecting climate change?

Study results found that Conspiracy thinking reduces belief in the scientific consensus on climate change…

• by 15% among Democrats

• by 28% among Republicans

For Democrats, this cuts against stereotypical in-party messaging; for Republicans, it can reinforce stereotypical in-party messaging

What is a decision frame?

• A decision maker’s conception of the acts, outcomes, and contingencies associated with a particular choice.

• Decision frames are partly controlled by the formulation of the problem, and by the norms, habits, and characteristics of the decision maker.

• When a decision maker’s choice is affected by the details of the decision frame, this is a framing effect

(lec. 7) What are some potential implications of framing effects for climate change?

• “Global warming” vs “climate change” vs “climate crisis” may elicit different responses

• Framing issue based on who is representing as supporting it (partisan / non-partisan)

• How scary climate change is representing as being

• Costs vs benefits of climate legislation / economic vs environmental

What makes a law effective?

• Not be repealed by Congress/state legislature

• Not be overturned in the courts

• Actually be enforced

• Be interpreted in a way that is consistent with the intention of the law

How could you weaken/try to stop a law?

• Appoint regulators that are disinterested in enforcing law

• Rally public opinion against law to encourage electing legislators who will repeal it / encourage citizens to not comply

• Try to make the law unenforceable in the first place by adding complexity to it

• File lawsuits against environmental law (in favorable jurisdictions)

• Finding loopholes in the law

• Changing budget for agencies to reduce their enforcement capacity

• Delay tactics (legal but be otherwise)

What is policy feedback?

a process by which a law becomes entrenched (or even encourages further laws of a similar nature) once it comes into force

What is a “positive feedback loop” ?

making progress on something engenders yet more progress

What is retrenchment?

a process by which a law is weakened (or even repealed) after it has come into force

What is a “negative feedback loop” ?

making progress on something leads to pushback and reversal

What happens when there is unintended consequences when making a law?

When making a law, there may be some results that are unexpected (and potentially undesirable)

• Especially likely when law is dealing with complex systems (economy, climate, etc.)

• Worse when policy design is unthoughtful

• Negative unintended consequences can:

  • Lead to the law being repealed

  • Discourage other states/levels of government from experimenting in the same area

What is the “fog of enactment” when making a law?

• Consequences of a proposed law may be unclear

• Even what is in a proposed law may be unclear (often very long, completed at the last minute, result from complex negotiations)

• Fog is thickest for:

  • Novel policies

  • Major reforms

  • Technical/complex policy areas

• Interested parties may not know how harmful/beneficial a bill will be until it has been implemented as law

(lec. 8) What is direct retrenchment?

1. Interest group lobbies legislators to get laws changed

2. “Regulatory capture” – an interest group strongly influences how a government agency interprets or enforces a law

Direct Retrenchment techniques are typical of more highly empowered interest groups

How do interest groups lobby legislators to get laws changed?

interest groups usually know much more about issues than legislators

• Legislators sometimes rely on interest groups for necessary information

• Interest groups provide “model bills” (e.g., templates for legislation) to make legislators’ lives easier – and further interest group’s cause

• Cross-state interest group networks can share information about policy and politics

How does an interest group use regulatory capture?

an interest group strongly influences how a government agency interprets or enforces a law.  Can involve:

• “Revolving door” – individuals move between employment in govt agencies and in industry/interest groups

• Interest groups getting “their people” into regulatory roles

  • Presidential/gubernatorial appointments to agencies, elections  to Public Utility Commission (in a minority of states)

• “Social capture”

• Bribes or other illegal inducements

How do interest groups work through political parties?

• Influence party agendas through elections, media, campaign contributions, and ideas

• If interest groups can make their issue a “litmus test” for a party’s candidates, locks in that party’s support

• Affects “what it means” to be in a given party

• Intervention in primaries

  • Changes composition of party’s elected officials by boosting sympathetic candidates and weeding out others

  • •In our polarized times, most politicians fear primaries more than they fear losing general elections – even the threat of a competitive primary can motivate incumbents

  • Primaries are low salience, especially in state elections → interest groups can have a big impact

How do interest groups work through the public?

• Public can influence politicians through elections

• Advertising, campaign spending and spreading ideas/narratives about policy

  • Edison Electric Institute (1991): “reposition global warming as theory” and not fact

  • Public information campaigns

  • Leaked internal documents illustrate intentions behind these campaigns

What is “greenwashing” ?

pretending to care about the environment by touting green energy projects, etc.

What is “astroturfing” ?

going “around” the public by creating the appearance of a grassroots movement when none exists

• “Front groups” that are organized by special interests but pose as groups of concerned citizens

• Hiring actors to attend public hearings as “concerned citizens”

What did the “Corporate Funding and Ideological Polarization About Climate Change” study find? (about messaging topics)

• Organizations that produce more messaging are more central in countermovement social network

• Centrality is frequently seen as a sign of influence

• Corporate funding is also positively related to centrality among these organizations

“corporate funding influences the actual language and thematic content of polarizing discourse”

(lec. 9) How do interest groups work though the legal system?

• Bringing court challenges

• Judges have ability to rule on agencies’ policy interpretation

• Low-profile changes to policy

• Even when unsuccessful, drags out process of policy change

What is the Renewable Portfolio Standard? (RPS)

• Sets a requirement for the percentage of electricity to come from renewable technologies by a certain date

• 30 states currently have them (see next slide)

  • Examples:

  • NY 70% renewables by 2030; 100% zero-emissions electricity requirement by 2040

  • CA 44% by 2024; 52% by 2027; 60% by 2030. Also requires 100% clean energy by 2045.

  • AZ 15% by 2025.

What is Net Energy Metering? (NEM)

• Sets rules for compensating individuals/business who sell small amounts of energy to the grid (e.g. from solar panels)

• Typically pays the entity’s purchase price of energy

• Most states have some form of this presently

• Incentivizes small-scale green energy production (e.g., solar panels on the rooftop of a home)

What are descriptive norms?

information about other people’s typical behavior regarding some norm

• e.g., you should do X because others like you do X

What are injunctive norms?

descriptions of what you should/should not do based on its being moral/proper behavior

What did the “Constructive, Destructive, and Reconstructive Power of Social Norms” study find? (hand written message on door hangers)

Descriptive Norms Treatment (no smiley face):

• Households that were above average in electricity use cut consumption

• Households that were below average in electricity use increased consumption

Descriptive Norms can backfire if they make people feel as though others are free riding (remember conditional cooperation)

Descriptive+Injunctive Norms Treatment (smiley):

• Households that were above average in electricity use cut consumption (at least as much as in the Descriptive Norms Treatment)

• Households that were below average in electricity use didn’t change consumption

How can descriptive norms backfire?

• Negative behavior is often less common than people think it is

• Descriptive Norms can thus make people realize that positive behavior is actually very common

• As such, Descriptive Norms can sometimes motivate more positive behavior

• However, if a given Descriptive Norm shows that negative behavior is more common than you thought, or that you have been doing more than most, it can actually lead to more negative  behavior

What is psychological reactance?

When something threatens or eliminates people’s freedom of behavior, they experience psychological reactance, a motivational state that drives freedom restoration

• “I become frustrated when I am unable to make free and independent decisions”

• “Advice and recommendations usually induce me to do just the opposite”

How does reactance apply to climate change?

Reactance may reduce the appeal of many climate-facing policies (e.g., restrictive policies related to diet or transportation)

Such reactance may be especially strong in cultures that particularly value personal autonomy and freedom (which include many of the major carbon emitters per capita)

What was found in the “Psychological Reactance From Reading
Basic Facts on Climate Change” study?

Three Informational Treatments:

• Consensus Treatment: “Did you know? 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening”

• Non-Consensus Treatment: “Did you know? Human-caused climate change is happening”

• Control Group Receiving No Message

RESULTS

Consensus Treatment: (varied on previous beliefs)

• Among Climate Change Skeptics, Consensus Treatment increased reactance

• Among Climate Change Believers, Consensus Treatment decreased reactance

• Had Minimal or No Effect on Climate Change Skeptic Democrats, or on Climate Change Believers

What are dynamic norms?

information about change in others or trends in norms over time

• e.g., more and more people are composting / becoming vegan / buying electric cars

What does an “invitation to work together toward a shared goal” look like?

e.g. framing climate change as group-based problem solving can increase motivation (bolster sense of identity, belonging, or meaning)